What was once a great story in Seattle has become a disaster in Las Vegas.
Pete Carroll’s hapless Raiders were steamrolled 40-6 by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, and it wasn’t even that close. The 34-point defeat is one of the heaviest Carroll’s distinguished head coaching career between college and the NFL. Struggling starting quarterback Geno Smith threw two more interceptions, increasing his league-leading total to nine. Defensively, the Raiders gave up 8/10 on third down, recorded no sacks of Daniel Jones, and allowed touchdowns on all six red zone trips.
“I’m processing it poorly to tell you the truth because I did expect to win right out of the chutes,” Carroll said in his post-game press conference regarding the 1-4 start, the worst of his career.
“As the quarterback of this team, I hate where we are. I hate how it looks,” Smith told reporters following the Colts game.
If the opening day win over the New England Patriots (which has at least aged well) was a possible sign of a path out of the abyss for the Raiders, the ensuing four games have been the harshest of reality checks. Their point differential ranks third worst, they’re second-worst in turnover margin, and their best offensive weapon, tight end Brock Bowers, is hobbled due to a knee injury. Dynamic rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has had several highlights and an electrifying three-touchdown day versus the Chicago Bears, but has otherwise struggled to consistently find rushing lanes behind a shoddy offensive line.
It was only three years ago that Carroll memorably traded Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos and turned to Geno Smith as Wilson’s unlikely successor. Expectations for the Seahawks were low and perhaps even lower for Smith, whose disastrous stint as New York Jets starter rooted him to backup status for several years.
Smith defied the odds by posting career-best numbers, ranking number one in completion percentage, and winning Comeback Player of the Year on his way to leading the Seahawks to a 9-8 record and surprise playoff appearance. The defining and highly meme-able quote from Smith came after Seattle’s opening night win over Wilson and the Denver Broncos:
While Geno remained a quality starter with favorable advanced metrics in his two subsequent seasons (one with Carroll, one with current Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald), he neither replicated his great stats nor returned to the playoffs. When contract extension talks with Seattle hit an impasse, Smith was traded to Las Vegas to reunite him with the coach who revived his career. Given the post-Derek Carr experience of Jimmy Garoppolo, Gardner Minshew II, and Aidan O’Connell, Smith at his best figured to represent a semblance of good quarterback play that’s otherwise been absent for the Raiders.
It might be time to write off the soon-to-be 35-year-old Smith once more.
Throws like this into double coverage would be enough to make Tom Brady want to come out of retirement again and sub himself in.
Perhaps it was an ominous sign when Geno’s first pass of his Raiders home debut was telegraphed and insta-picked. One of three on the night versus the Los Angeles Chargers.
Under offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, Smith is 28th in QBR, with only Jake Browning (backup), Russell Wilson (benched), Joe Flacco (benched), and Cam Ward (rookie) ranked below him. Six of his nine picks have come without being pressured, and his 5.5% interception rate is worse than his 21-interception rookie year with the Jets. Smith’s sack rate is the worst of any of his full-time starting seasons, and his EPA/play is 30th out of 34 qualifying QBs. While Carroll hasn’t indicated a change is coming, it has to be under consideration, whether for Kenny Pickett or Aidan O’Connell once he returns from injury in the coming weeks.
(Incidentally, it looks like the Seahawks timed their split from their incumbent starter for a second time in a row, given Sam Darnold’s outstanding early play in Seattle)
Of course, this doesn’t all fall on the shoulders of Smith and Carroll. This is neither a deep nor very talented roster, and the Raiders are in the midst of a(nother) rebuild with a(nother) new front office. There’s also been drama surrounding the release of Christian Wilkins, as well as the Jakobi Meyers trade request, and now the midseason release of starting linebacker Germaine Pratt. Unlike in Seattle, Carroll does not hold final say over roster personnel, so his primary focus is strictly coaching, while John Spytek serves as the general manager. Roster quality and injuries to the likes of Bowers and left tackle Kolton Miller don’t completely explain away why the Raiders are 29th in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA, including 29th on offense and special teams and 21st on defense. Many of the defensive issues that popped up in Carroll’s waning years in Seattle have resurfaced in Vegas. They’re one of the worst pass rushing teams in the NFL (there’s only one Maxx Crosby, unfortunately for them) and are near the bottom in defending third downs.
It’s hard to imagine where the wins are coming from for the remainder of the season. The Raiders would be likely betting underdogs against everyone except the Tennessee Titans and the New York Giants, and possibly double-digit dogs versus the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, and Philadelphia Eagles. At the moment, the Raiders look like legitimate contenders for the No. 1 overall pick, something they’ve not had since the infamous JaMarcus Russell draft in 2007.
This was always going to be an uphill battle for Raiders in the daunting AFC West, which sent all of their division rivals to last year’s playoffs. Carroll and Smith were supposed to at least help raise the floor back to some semblance of respectability for a franchise that cratered to 4-13 in 2024. It’s possible that 4-13 is beyond this year’s Raiders, which would immediately call into question the respective futures of both men. Carroll is only signed for three years with a fourth-year team option, whereas Smith’s two-year contract extension has a clean out for 2027 but still has a feasible path to move on in 2026. Mark Davis has canned every non-Jon Gruden coach he’s ever hired within three seasons, so not even the Super Bowl champion Carroll is immune to being Davis’ fourth firing in five years. Smith needs an all-time turnaround not to eventually get benched, let alone stick around for 2026, and he’s the likelier of the two to be let go.
Time is running out for the once inspirational Carroll/Smith duo to salvage anything from 2025, and if the embarrassments continue, their Vegas residency won’t last much longer.
