ESPN’s NBA top-100 list is peak offseason content. During a time in the NBA when just about the only news happening is Jonathan Kuminga’s ongoing contract dispute with the Golden State Warriors, a list of the 100 best players in the league is a good way to both preview the season and engage fans in debate at the onset of training camp.
It’s important to remember that this list is supposed to be predictive for how players will rank by the end of the season. Cooper Flagg, who comes in at No. 52 on this list, may not hit the ground running as the youngest player in the NBA this year. By the time playoff time roles around, though, it’s totally possible he could have a top-50ish impact on the Dallas Mavericks.
A lot can change in one year. At the start of last season, ESPN ranked Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham at No. 67. After an All-NBA season, Cunningham is now No. 12 on this list. That feels a bit too rich for my blood even as a long-time fan, but Cunningham still doesn’t crack our list of the most overrated and underrated players, according to ESPN. Here’s our four most overrated players based on ESPN’s list. We’ll follow shortly with the most underrated players.
No. 87: Jonas Valanciunas, C, Denver Nuggets
This one is unfathomable to me. Valanciunas might have had top-90 impact at his peak, but I’m highly dubious he’s still that effective at age-33 when it sure seems like he’d rather be playing in Europe. He’s coming off a season split between the Washington Wizards and Sacramento Kings where he averaged 10.4 points, 7.7 assists, and two assists per game — not exactly numbers that scream he’s a top-100 player. I do think Valanciunas can be an elite backup center this season, but backup centers are generally a dime a dozen, and we already know Nikola Jokic will be playing close to 40 minutes in any game that matters. If he’s really this good, the Nuggets’ long-time woes with Jokic off the court will be mitigated this season. I just don’t see it. His turnover issues — he posted a 14.6 percent turnover rate last year — just aren’t going to fly in Denver where everyone possession matters in the Western Conference seeding race, and while he’s still a pretty good shot-blocker, he doesn’t have much mobility or coverage versatility. He also barely took any threes last year and only made 21 percent of them. This is about 100 spots too rich for me.
No. 30 Scottie Barnes, F, Toronto Raptors
Barnes’ numbers from last season look pretty good at first blush: 19.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.4 steals, and one block per game. It’s just that a lot of guys can put up numbers when they get a ton of shots with no real focus on winning. Barnes was an extremely inefficient scorer, finishing with -5.6% rTS%, which measures scoring efficiency compared to league average. His lack of a reliable three-ball was the biggest culprit: Barnes made just 27.1 percent of 4.3 attempts per game from three-point range. His defense still graded out really well, and he’s an excellent passer for a player with his size. It just feels like Barnes is miscast in a primary option role, and while the addition of Brandon Ingram adds to Toronto’s talent base, I’m not sure it puts Barnes in a better position for individual success. Barnes is a good player, but this is at least 20 spots too high.
No. 83 Jonathan Kuminga, F, Golden State Warriors*
Kuminga is long, explosive, and powerful with real scoring upside, but there’s a reason why he’s failed to earn Steve Kerr’s trust during his first four seasons with the Warriors. The soon-to-be 23-year-old is an efficient scorer, a horrible shooter, an unreliable decision-maker, and an inconsistent defender. Those flaws are just way too significant to make him a top-100 player. Kuminga posted -4.7 rTS%, which measures scoring efficiency compared to league average. A guy with Kuminga’s physical gifts should not be placing No. 175 in the league in true shooting percentage under any circumstance. There was some hope for his shooting when he hit 37 percent of his threes on low volume in his second year, but last season Kuminga made just 30.5 percent of his threes on one more attempt per game compared to his second season. He would have real utility if he could play the short roll or be a demon on defense, but that just hasn’t happened yet. Kuminga is still more prospect than player as he enters Year 5, and that means he doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near a top-100 list.
69. Josh Hart, G/F, New York Knicks
Hart is one of the league’s better role players, a high-motor rebounding specialist who can also make some impressive passing reads and finish well enough at the basket. I just think he has too many flaws to be considered a top-70 player in the league. Hart’s limitations as a ball handler and outside shooter showed up constantly on the Knicks’ playoff run last season. Over the past two seasons he’s shot a combined 32.2 percent from three, and he’s often guarded with an opposing center, which limits the biggest advantages the Knicks have with Karl-Anthony Towns. Hart is a bit overrated defensively in my eyes, grading out as a neutral defender by EPM, which ranked in the 56th percentile of the league. The Knicks just felt more dynamic when they replaced Hart with a better shooter like Miles McBride, or a vertical spacer like Mitchell Robinson. The data backs it up: the Knicks’ net-rating last year was +3.8 with Hart on the floor, and +9.8 when he was on the bench, per DataBallr. Former coach Tom Thibodeau was ultra reliant on Hart last season, and one way new coach Mike Brown can improve the team is by trying out some new pieces in his place. Hart is good, but he’s not this good.
