After years in the public eye, Paige Bueckers entered the WNBA with sky-high expectations, as a consensus No. 1 pick fresh off a national title.
And, five months removed from draft night, it’s safe to say that Bueckers has exceeded all of those expectations, save for team success.
This season, Bueckers has averaged 19.1 points, 5.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. Her scoring average is the 7th-highest in WNBA history among rookies, and the 5th-highest in the WNBA this season.
Her 56% true shooting (which accounts for two-point and three-point shots as well as free throws) is higher than veteran WNBA guards like Sabrina Ionescu, Skylar Diggins, and Courtney Williams, among dozens of others.
While she’s struggled from downtown (Bueckers is shooting 32.2% from three, a significant dip from her strong 42.3% three-point average in college), she’s been efficient from everywhere else, shooting 51.3% from two-point range and 89.7% from the line.
It’s incredibly unusual to come in as a highly-touted rookie guard, carry the offensive load, and be efficient while doing so; Kelsey Plum, who was the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer when she was drafted, averaged 8.5 points on 34.6% shooting as a rookie. Sabrina Ionescu missed most of her rookie season with an ankle sprain, but averaged 11.7 points on 37.9% shooting in her subsequent first full season.
Bueckers’ 19.1 points on 47.4% shooting blows those seasons out of the water.
Last month, Bueckers tied the WNBA record for most points in a single game by a rookie, exploding for 44 points on 17-21 shooting. Before Bueckers, no WNBA player has ever taken more than 20 shots in a game and missed four or fewer.
But she’s not the only rookie who has put together a Rookie of the Year season. Let’s take a look at the other strong candidate.
In most seasons, Sonia Citron would be the Rookie of the Year
Washington Mystics guard Sonia Citron, who was the No. 3 pick in the draft, has exceeded all expectations, too. Citron has averaged 15 points, 4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.2 steals this season. And, she’s amazingly done so while being the WNBA’s most efficient high-volume guard, currently boasting a 60.7% TS.
Citron has shot a ridiculous 43.7% from three, the highest among WNBA guards. Her extreme consistency — she’s scored in double-figures in 19 of Mystics’ last 20 games — has put her firmly in the Rookie of the Year conversation. Last week, she set the record for most points in a single season by a Mystics player — ever.
While Citron is not my pick for Rookie of the Year, she’s had an absolutely ridiculous shooting season, played strong defense, and demonstrated that she’s on pace to become one of the rising stars of the WNBA.
Citron’s Mystics have had a better season than Bueckers’ Wings; the Mystics are 16-27, while the Wings are a league-worst 9-34, but it’s hard to know how much of that winning should be credited to the rookies.
A decent amount of the Mystics’ success has to be attributed to veteran guard Brittney Sykes, who led the team in scoring and was an All-Star before being traded midseason. Without Sykes, the Mystics have been in free-fall, having lost 9 straight games.
The case for Paige Bueckers over Sonia Citron
Citron’s consistency and efficiency thrust her into the Rookie of the Year conversation, even when it appeared that Paige Bueckers had run away with it.
Still, when it came time to cast my ballot, Bueckers was my clear choice.
Part of the edge goes to Bueckers simply because of the load she’s had to carry; the UConn product has a 24.9% usage rate this season, meaning that about a quarter of all possessions when she’s on the floor end with her (either taking/making a shot or turning the ball over).
Part of the edge goes to Bueckers due to her playmaking; the Wings rookie is averaging the 10th-most assists per game this season. She has the 11th-highest assist percentage this season (29.4% of Wings players’ field goals are assisted by Bueckers while she’s on the floor). And, she has the 8th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the league (among those averaging at least two dimes per game).
Several advanced statistics (imperfectly) measure a player’s individual impact, and Bueckers leads in those categories.
Bueckers has the 9th-highest PER in the league (21.4), while Citron has a 16.5 PER, which is just above league average (15). (Player Efficiency Rating measures a player’s statistical contributions per minute into a single, pace-adjusted number, accounting for positive actions like points, assists, and rebounds, as well as negative actions like turnovers and missed shots).
Bueckers also leads Citron in another advanced analytics, PIE, which shows the percentage of game events a player achieved (based on a complex formula that is basically a revamped version of PER). Bueckers has a 14.2 PIE rating (16th-best in the league), while Citron has an 11.9 PIE (38th-best).
How insightful are these statistics? It’s an age-old question, but the eye test affirms Bueckers’ impact.
Had the Mystics had a stronger finish to the season — and perhaps even secured a spot in the playoffs — Citron’s case would be made more compelling. For much of the season, the gap between the Mystics’ and the Wings’ records was larger and helped Citron’s Rookie of the Year case alive.
But the gap between the two teams’ success is not substantial enough to overcome the fact that Bueckers has carried a heavier load on her team, and by most metrics, has been the more impactful, all-around player.
