The 2025 NFL season is upon us, and the march to Super Bowl LX begins tonight when the Philadelphia Eagles raise a banner and welcome the Dallas Cowboys to Lincoln Financial Field.
16 NFL games await us this weekend, including what many are already calling the Game of the Year when the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.
Today, as we will do ahead of each week, we’re looking at our three favorite picks against the spread. If you choose to follow these selections, please do so responsibly.
All lines are taken from FanDuel.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (São Paulo, Brazil)FanDuel line: Kansas City -3Spread pick: Kansas City -3
At first blush, this seems like an easy selection. The Chiefs have won their last six games against their division rivals, and Patrick Mahomes tends to fare well in Week 1 games and against the Chargers. Over his career, Mahomes is 10-2 against the Chargers, having thrown for 3,270 yards and 27 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. In his seven Week 1 starts, Mahomes has thrown for 2,059 yards and 21 touchdowns, against just two interceptions.
What gives me pause is the fact that three of those six wins over the Chargers have come by three points or less.
But we’re going with the Chiefs, believing in their revamped offensive line and the genius of Andy Reid. And with Rashwan Slater out for the season, the Chargers will have a reworked offensive line of their own, creating some opportunities for Steve Spagnuolo’s pressure schemes.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans SaintsFanDuel line: Arizona -6.5Spread pick: Arizona -6.5
This is a massive, massive number.
Then, you look at the New Orleans Saints’ roster.
Spencer Rattler won the training camp battle with second-round pick Tyler Shough, but this is a roster that is facing questions beyond quarterback.
As for Arizona, they boosted their defense in the offseason — particularly the pass rush beginning with the signing of Josh Sweat — and that is going to be huge not just for Sunday, but the entire campaign. Depth is an issue for the Cardinals, but focusing on Week 1, unless something cataclysmic happens, it should not play a role in deciding this game.
Offensively, Year 2 of the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection starts against a defense that was ranked 28th against the pass a season ago.
It is a big number, and the Cardinals are on the road, but Arizona is the pick here.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis ColtsFanDuel line: Colts -1.5Spread pick: Dolphins +1.5
Neither team inspires much confidence at the moment. The Indianapolis Colts are rolling with Daniel Jones after the former first-round pick won the training camp battle with Anthony Richardson, while the Dolphins looked rather shaky on the defensive side of the ball during training camp and in preseason action.
Add in the fact that this is the first game at Lucas Oil Stadium after the passing of owner Jim Irsay, and this will be a charged environment in Indianapolis on Sunday.
But for all the concerns on the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins still look to have an explosive offense. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are “good” after a frustrating 2024 season dented their relationship, and with Jaylen Waddle on the other side of the field, the Dolphins still have the talent to put up points in bunches.
Will that be enough to contend in the AFC? That is a question for another time, but it is enough to carry the day Sunday in Indianapolis. It feel strange picking the Dolphins after what’s been a tumultuous camp, but their upside is more than enough to cover a spread this tiny.
