PARIS – While Switzerland is still reeling from the 39 percent tariff announced by the U.S. on July 31, July figures show Swiss watchmakers and their clients anticipated the bad news as watch exports ticked upwards in July.
A total of nearly 2.4 billion Swiss francs’ worth of wristwatches left the country during the month, amounting to an 6.9 percent year-on-year growth, according to figures published Thursday by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry.
The gains came mainly from exports to the U.S. Without their impact, the overall tally would have been down 0.9 percent, the industry body said.
“In reality, this was a move to build up local stocks and provides little insight into the actual state of the market,” it added.
Still the largest watch market by size, the U.S. accounted for 23 percent of the market in the month, with exports rising 45 percent to 55.9 million Swiss francs, in a more modest increase than April’s anticipatory stockpiling surge.
Noting a more modest effect of looming tariffs than in April, Bernstein’s Luca Solca expects “tariff-related fluctuations in export data to reappear” in August’s tallies with anticipatory shipments, likely by air freight, spilling over until the Aug. 9 effect date of the U.S. tariffs.
“However, we also note that the extent to which Swiss exporters can avoid these tariffs is constrained by monthly production volumes and the risk that onshore U.S. inventories pile too high – shifting inventories out of the US and incurring another round of import tariffs elsewhere would be un-commercial,” he added.
Japan and China, the second and third markets by size, saw their exports fall respectively 10.1 and 6.5 percent. Exports to Hong Kong, which is showing “incrementally positive data points” according to a note by RBS analyst Nikolaos Lafioniatis, rose by 4.6 percent while Singapore’s tally grew by nearly 15 percent.
The U.K., which is the fifth largest market, logged a 0.2 percent uptick. The top six destinations for Swiss timepieces account for nearly 56 percent of the global market.
Across Europe, performances were mixed. France, the region’s largest market, grew 1.9 percent to 113.9 million Swiss francs. Right behind it were Germany, which fell under the 100-million Swiss francs bar with a 14.7 percent contraction, and Italy, shrinking 9.1 percent.
India, often touted as the next Eldorado for luxury but still a modest market for Swiss timepieces, slumped 8.8 percent to 23.4 million Swiss francs.
Wristwatches were driving exports in July, with a 7.5 percent increase in value and a 0.3 percent rise in volume. Other products, which includes clocks and take a 4 percent slice of timepiece exports, shrank by 6 percent.
Watches priced under 200 Swiss francs at export price shrank by nearly 2 percent in value and over 3 percent in volume. All other price points grew by mid-to-high single-digit factors, save for the 500-to-3,000 Swiss francs category, which saw its value remain near flat. GIVE PRECISE FIGURE.
The new U.S. tariffs impact around 60 percent of Swiss exports, which include timepieces and chocolate, according to Swiss federal authorities. Pharmaceuticals, another major export for the country, do not fall under the new rate.
Uncertainties remain around levies on gold. Switzerland is a major gold refiner, who accounts for around a third of the precious material refined worldwide.
