It’s the middle of the second quarter of the 2024 battle between the New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks. The Jets are in the red zone with the chance to score, but Seattle looks like they’re selling out to blitz. Five defensive linemen are up at the line of scrimmage, but there are two potential other pass rushers lined up on the edge. QB Aaron Rodgers takes the snap and expects the middle of the field to be open with no coverage guys there, but the Seahawks surprise him by dropping two defensive linemen right where he wants to throw it. Leonard Williams picks the ball off and rumbles into the endzone, flipping the game on its’ head.
This is what’s called a simulated pressure, and these types of blitzes and looks are taking over NFL defenses. In the constant push pull of dominance over the 100-yard battlefield, it felt like defenses started to gain the advantage to start the season. The offenses were struggling, passing yards were down and everyone was wondering where the offense went. Yet, in the struggle for football supremacy defenses took the upper hand.
One of the ways NFL defenses fought back is through the use of simulated pressures, which has constantly seen their usage go up. According to PFF’s Jason DeLoach, 2024 saw all NFL teams use simulated pressures on 19.2% of snaps, the highest it’s been over a six year period starting in 2018. Yet, the trend that really stands out is that the sim pressure percentage has constantly risen in that same time period.
Not only have these simulated pressure rates been rising year over year, but 2024 saw NFL offenses have the lowest EPA per play using these pressures since 2021.
For context, a -0.07 EPA per play would rank them in between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. Not exactly the pinnacles of offensive success.
So, what makes these pressures unique and why are defenses using them so much? On top of that, how can offenses punch back?
To start off, we have to define simulated pressures versus a concept very similar to them: creepers.
A creeper and simulated pressure both give the illusion of sending a blitz and bring a member of the secondary to drop QBs, but here’s the big difference: a creeper is from a standard alignment of an NFL defense, while a simulated pressure is one that shows a bunch of people at the line of scrimmage. While a creeper has the look of a normal defense, a simulated pressure is throwing a lot at you to see if they can make your brain overload.
This is a creeper pressure that ends in a sack for the Eagles. You’ll notice that they’re lined up in their basic nickel alignment, but bring LB Nakobe Dean and drop EDGE Josh Sweat into coverage. The Rams’ offensive line fully slides to their right, expecting Smith to rush and the RB has any linebacker who blitzes. They pick it up pretty well, but the RB gets SMOKED and the Eagles get a sack.
Now, this is a simulated pressure by the Seahawks against the Broncos. Look at how many more people are at the line of scrimmage compared to the Eagles’ creeper pressure that gets home. There are seven people at the line of scrimmage, and only six available pass protectors for the Broncos. But then at the snap, the Seahawks bring a corner and a linebacker off the edges, and drop the defensive tackles out the middle of the defense. This creates an unblocked pressure that turns into a sack, one of my favorite blitz calls from the season.
This is another simulated pressure, courtesy of Minnesota Vikings’ DC/blitz wizard (blitzard?) Brian Flores against the Tennessee Titans. The Vikings show seven at the line of scrimmage of you include S Harrison Smith, who is lined up over the third receiver, but at the snap they drop the two edge defenders and bring both linebackers. Tennessee’s response to the pressure was to spread the protection to the edges, but with both dropping the linebackers had a free run at the QB. Dastardly work.
Football is cyclical, and the simulated pressure/creeper usage is a way of showing that the NFL’s cyclical nature has turned back towards the defense.
NFL defenses have become much more dynamic pre and post snap, and using simulated pressures is their way of getting back at the offense. NFL offenses used to shred defenses that were static with play action and bootlegs, the Shanahans and McVays of the world obliterating defenses that couldn’t change the picture post-snap. Now, NFL defenses are changing what their coverage is after the snap and forcing offenses to think on their feet. Simulated pressures are a way of affecting the line of scrimmage in both the run and passing game, forcing not only the QB into making bad reads, but the offensive line as well. Simulated pressures and creepers both are used in the run game to steal gaps and get downhill run throughs from second and third level defenders. Zone runs have become so prevalent in the NFL due to their ability to block areas instead of men. So, if there’s nobody in the area, they climb to the next available level. With simulated pressures and creepers, a second level defender unaccounted for runs through and creates negative plays like tackles for loss. The Vikings use these a lot in their fronts to give clean alleys for their athletic second level. They send a run blitz against the Packers’ split zone run, and the second the right guard hesitates, the Vikings’ linebacker is able to force RB Josh Jacobs to change his path and run right back into the help the Vikings send.
The Seahawks had a really good one against the Giants, and from the end zone angle you can see how the movement of the creeper throws the Giants’ offensive line blocking path out of wack. Everyone slants away from the blitzing safety, and the guard to the side of the run can’t get to the linebacker, who ends up filling the gap and making the tackle.
Attacking the offensive line is how NFL defensive coordinators use simulated pressures in the passing game. Forcing the offense to change their plans on the snap with pressure plans and packaging helps to slow down the timing and rhythm of the offense, and tilt the game back into the defense’s favor. Because of how defenses started to rotate post-snap, using funky pressure packages along with them create a whole new set of questions for the quarterback just when he thought he had the answers, shoutout to Rowdy Roddy Piper. Defenses aim to break the rules of the offense, and using simulated pressures helps break the protection rules of the offensive line.
The Baltimore Ravens use these simulated pressures to break the rules of the offensive line to send free runners at the quarterback. This sack against the Chargers is a good example of the simulated pressures that are thrown at NFL offenses. They show five at the line of scrimmage but two more possible blitzers as well. When the ball is snapped, they drop the middle guys out and bring the two edges. This affects the offensive line, who try to block “big on big”, meaning all the offensive linemen block the biggest guys up front, and the running back blocks the smallest player that’s free. However, with the Ravens dropping two of the big guys and bringing both little guys, and they get a free runner for a sack.
What can offenses do to solve this simulated pressure problem? Well there are a few answers. One of them is with offenses using different pass protection plans to address these pressures, but another way I think teams are combating this is simple: just run into it. Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice noted earlier this year that seven of the top 20 rushing rates on third and fourth down of three yards or more came from 2024. This is because as teams want to run these simulated pressures, the easiest way to address them is by simply running into them. Most of these sim pressures are with guys standing up between the tackles looking to play the pass before the run. With how much more often teams are going for it on fourth down, running into these sim pressures help set up favorable go for it situations.
Simulated pressures and creepers get thrown out a lot in the modern NFL, but their usage and effectiveness are the defenses way of putting the offense on the back foot in the constant battle on the NFL field.
