Preseason is officially underway, and before we get too caught up in the process of drawing big opinions from backup players, it’s time to dive into our thoughts on who the contenders will be in 2025. Obviously not every team has a chance of making the Super Bowl, heck, realistically only a handful do. Inside of those broad, obvious observations are key reasons we think teams do, and don’t have a shot at making the big game at the end of the season.
We’re not necessarily saying these teams will actually do it, or if they even have a solid shot. It’s more about whether we think there’s even a remote chance these teams could find a way in, and why. If they’re obviously no chance they’re a Super Bowl team we’ll explain what they’re missing.
CAN: Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. start to connect
As much as the Cardinals’ defense has improved and played well over the final stretch of the season, a lot of their hopes ride on the Murray-Harrison Jr. duo. Last season, it felt like they were out of sync, never fully connecting on the back shoulder fades or easy access throws a WR1 normally gets. The defense is good enough to get them into the playoffs, but if Murray and Harrison Jr. find their groove, they could be even more than that.
CAN’T: Do the Falcons know what they are?
Indecision is the name of the game when it comes to the Atlanta Falcons. This is a franchise that seems totally lost when it comes to their plan, their path forward, or what it takes to lift them from being an almost-playoff team to a contender.
In a lot of ways the mixed messages the organization sent about its QB have permeated to everything. The Falcons are overpaying Kirk Cousins as a backup, which could indicate they’re not entirely sold on Michael Penix Jr. yet, and then there’s the issue that the franchise hasn’t really found a way to utilize Kyle Pitts, who has become a target of trade rumors.
There’s no doubt the Falcons took a big swing in the NFL Draft by solidifying its pass rush, but that’s not enough to get them over the hump. Will they potentially contend in the weak NFC South? Absolutely. Much beyond that? Probably not.
CAN: See “Bills, Buffalo”
What goes for the Bills — which you will see in a moment — goes for the Ravens.
The reasons the Ravens can win the Super Bowl are the same as they were last year, and for some years before that. It starts with Lamar Jackson, a two-time MVP winner and one of the most dynamic quarterbacks we have seen in the league. Adding in Derrick Henry last season gave that offense another element, making their run game even more explosive and opening up opportunities in the passing game.
They’re also an experienced group, a defense that trended upward as the season wore on last season, and their coaching staff additions on that side of the ball will certainly help.
But, similar to the Bills, it has been a case of “so close, yet so far away” these past few years.
CAN: For the same reasons as the last five years
The Bills are Charlie Brown and the playoffs are Lucy pulling away the football. It’s a constant case of “close but no cigar” for Josh Allen and Co, but it’s foolish to say this team can’t break through an win a Super Bowl.
Buffalo has the reigning MVP at quarterback, they have the defense, they have the coaching, they have the weapons. This is another case where the organization has everything it needs to win a Super Bowl, it’s just a question of whether everything can coalesce at the right time to make it happen.
CAN’T: The defense is a work in progress
There’s plenty of reason for optimism in the Carolinas, but the Panthers simply aren’t ready to contend yet with the defense as constructed. Head coach Dave Canales saw to prioritizing the offense in his first two off seasons as head coach, revamping the line in year one, and bolstering the weapons in year two.
While the Panthers had a fantastic draft addressing its need at pass rusher with Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen — they’re rookies. It’s going to take time for them to get used to taking NFL reps. Meanwhile there are bright spots at linebacker and in the secondary, but not enough to really feel safe about this team.
It’s going to be a building process for the Panthers. They’ve taken the right steps, but saying they could be contenders is foolish at this point.
CAN’T: Ben Johnson is a wizard, but it’s too early for the magic
It’s absolutely fine to be bullish on the Bears this season without jumping the shark and saying they’ll win the Super Bowl. Nobody had a better offseason move than Chicago in hiring offensive wunderkind Ben Johnson from the Lions, but that is going to be a major process in itself, and there will be growing pains.
Johnson runs an extremely tight ship offensively. He is exacting, calculating, and demands complete organization offensively. It will take a few games for some of the Bears’ offensive personnel to un-learn bad habits that crept in over the last two years. Caleb Williams will need to become a more deliberate, considered passer who relies less on creating out of structure. D.J. Moore will need to be more precise in his route running. The offensive line will need time to gel.
These are the building blocks that will turn the Bears into a contender in the next few years, but not this soon.
CAN’T: History repeating
The Bengals look lost. They have one of the best quarterbacks in football and a WR tandem most teams would kill for, and after that it’s all a big shrug. Zac Taylor is not a good football coach, and it’s fairly safe to argue that he’s the worst coach in the AFC North. Couple that with defensive issues and it’s tough to imagine this team breaking through.
This team really doesn’t understand on a fundamental level what it takes to make a more complete team. Overloading on offense is nice, but the ceiling for that kind of organization is when we watched Peyton Manning fall in the playoffs every year, and even then he had Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Bob Sanders. The Bengals don’t have that defensive talent.
Bickering with Trey Hendrickson over money all offseason is cheap business. Being the last team to ink your first rounder over contract language is weak leadership. Offensively this team is dangerous, but as games get tougher they’ll turn out to be a paper tiger.
CAN’T: They’re the Browns
These are the Cleveland Browns we are talking about. They last advanced to the AFC Championship Game during the George Bush presidency. The George H. W. Bush presidency, that is. They are still paying the price for the Deshaun Watson trade and their best quarterback option is basically Schofield’s age.
CAN’T: They’re the Cowboys
Look, as much as we might want to extol the talent on this roster and explain why Dallas can absolutely win a Super Bowl — we know they won’t. It’s just part of the team’s DNA at this point and there’s no escaping it.
On paper you’d be hard pressed to find many teams with more star power than the ‘Boys, but it’s all the connective tissue in between that fails when it’s needed the most. Couple all that with a big question mark looming over Micah Parsons’ head and this organization is a mess. Just look at how things have gone so far this summer in Dallas …
There is no excuse why Dallas shouldn’t be a 10+ win team in 2025 based on its roster. The issue is we know something is going to pop up and derail it all. An injury here or there, a back coaching decision, something happening in the front office. There’s always a reason why Dallas falters when the light gets bright. It’s been this way for over 30 years, and it’s not stopping anytime soon.
CAN: Defense wins championships
Sean Payton made waves when he said he believes the Broncos have the ability to win the Super Bowl, and while you might scoff at that – think on it a little bit and it becomes more difficult to argue against the possibility existing, no matter how small.
It’s not like the Broncos belong in the class of the AFC with the Bills, Ravens, or Chiefs – but this is a very, very good football team. Denver went 10-7 last year with a rookie QB, and a team trying to reinvent itself, and if Bo Nix can even somewhat replicate his performance from a year ago then the team is in good shape in the passing game. Meanwhile the entire run game has been revamped with rookie R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins, who it’s expected will handle the rock by committee – which is a massive boost to the consistency of the Broncos.
All of this takes a back seat to one of the best, most-complete defenses in the National Football League. The trenches are strong, the linebackers are great, and Denver arguably has the best cornerback in the NFL in Patrick Surtain Jr. There’s a lot to like here, and the only thing potentially holding this team back might be that the AFC West figures to be a murder’s row.
Look, much will be said in the weeks leading up to the start of the season that Detroit will suffer “brain drain” with their top two coordinators departing for head coaching jobs. Stories will be written about how much Ben Johnson meant to Jared Goff and the offense, as well as what Aaron Glenn did to keep that defense, which was depleted by injuries, playing well.
But Campbell remains, even with those two off to Chicago and New York. They’ll remain a team built in his mold: Tough and aggressive. With players now healthy on the defensive side of the ball, this is still a team that can make a deep playoff run.
CAN’T: Where’s the spark?
The Green Bay Packers are such a funny team to analyze. On the one hand you can point to Jordan Love being a great young QB, a strong run game with Josh Jacobs, and a defense that has some key players – but it’s impossible to find a true, hang-your-hat on player that can taken them over the top in the playoffs and give the kind of breakout performance needed in the postseason.
Green Bay’s pass rush is still a work in progress. There’s a lot that needs to still happen there to take the team into contention, and while the organization has invested more into wide receiver, it’s a far cry from feeling like they have what it takes to break out, unless rookie Matthew Golden is the truth.
All-in-all, the Packers are a team that improved only incrementally in a division that’s absolutely brutal. They’re simply not there yet.
The Texans should be a team we’re talking about in Super Bowl contention, but they’ve found a way to step on rakes like Sideshow Bob. Houston was able to win the AFC South last year by default, but parting ways with Laremy Tunsil, the only piece of protection worth a damn, and loading up on even more receivers was a horrible way to move forward.
The Texans feel like a team lost in success, while being unable to work out what’s needed to take the next step. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Houston win the AFC South again, or stumble backwards even further. The Super Bowl is out of the question though.
CAN’T: Their training camp quarterback battle is between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson.
Like, we don’t want to be mean or anything, but …
CAN’T: Let’s be real here
Even if you’re bullish on the Jags, nobody is confusing them with a Super Bowl team. Jacksonville made all the right moves in the draft and free agency, and there’s definitely hope in Duval – but year one of a new regime is simply too much for a team still establishing its identity.
The first two questions for Jacksonville are whether Liam Coen is the right coach, and Trevor Lawrence can lift his game to become more than he’s been. If those questions are answered in 2025 then the season is a success.
When you have the best quarterback in football and the best coach it’s impossible to count a team out, no matter how much we have before. The 2024 Chiefs were a highly problematic football team, and still made it to the Super Bowl. This year they’re better on offense.
It’s been a few years since Patrick Mahomes had the weapons he does in 2025. The return of Rashee Rice will make a big impact, and the team has strength in other areas to bolster their chances in 2025. Even if Travis Kelce’s impact continues to diminish there’s enough strength to pull this team into contention once more.
Doubt the Chiefs at your peril.
I’ll be bold here — for the record this is Schofield so you know where to direct your ire — but this is a team that can make a deep playoff run.
It starts with Pete Carroll, coming out of retirement to hopefully given the head coaching job some stability after years of chaos. Seriously, scroll through the all-time list of Raiders head coaches and it’s a “who’s who” of dart throws, retreads, interim head coaches, and more. Yes, Carroll instantly became the oldest head coach not just in the league this year, but in NFL history.
But he has a pedigree of winning, and one of the first moves they made was to reunite him with Geno Smith, which hopefully gives the Raiders quarterback room some stability.
And how do you help a new quarterback? Give him a game-changing running back, which is just what the Raiders did with Ashton Jeanty.
Yes, they are in the AFC West so the division will be tough, and they are still the Raiders so you temper expectations the best you can. But as I’ll write later this month in our SUPER GALACTICAL NFL PREVIEW EXTRAVAGANZA (we’re still workshopping that title) I’m very excited about what the Raiders can be this year.
The Chargers are a sneaky team this season, and definitely one to keep an eye on. Last season was the great litmus test on whether Jim Harbaugh’s brand of football still worked in the NFL — and it did. Justin Herbert had the best season of his career despite losing a majority of his offensive weapons and having to stand by while the team pivoted to emphasize defense and the ground game.
What we learned is that Herbert is the ideal Harbaugh QB. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, is happy to take what the defense gives him, and can execute when it matters. This bodes very well for a team that finished 11-6 a year ago and is ready to take the next step.
The additions of Najee Harris and Tyler Conklin supports everything Harbaugh likes on offense with strong running backs, and two TE sets. The team might seem light on talent defensively, but they’re deep — and seem well-equipped to handle injuries.
Most importantly: Harbaugh’s return came at the exact time teams around the league were pivoting to RB play and defense over QBs and WRs. This is a team at the right place at the right time, and a serious shock is possible.
CAN’T: Jack of all trades
There’s nothing the Rams do poorly, and nothing they do really well either. This is a team still hurting after Aaron Donald’s retirement, and outside of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams there isn’t much to hang your hat on.
Sean McVay is a phenomenal coach. Stafford is still an excellent QB, but overall the Rams feel like they’re in limbo right now.
CAN’T: Honeymoon’s over
The Dolphins are another of those teams that should be on the precipice of greatness, but have faltered. Now it’s worth questioning whether or not Mike McDaniel can be the man to lead this team long term.
Everything hinges on whether or not Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy. Without him this team is toast, and even with him it’s unclear if Tyreek Hill can remain happy.
The AFC East is getting more competitive, and Miami is in danger of being the odd one left out again. A Super Bowl in 2025 is out of the question.
The Vikings absolutely made the correct move by letting Sam Darnold walk and trusting their process on J.J. McCarthy. That doesn’t mean they’re going to be contenders immediately.
Minnesota is brimming with offensive talent, and defensively they retained one of the best minds in football in Brian Flores. As impressive as that is, running a 1st-year QB will always be a limiting factor. It’s going to take time for this offense to gel and find its rhythm, and while the future is bright for the Vikes, the present will be difficult inside the NFC’s most competitive division.
If this team can hit double-digit wins in 2025 we can start having serious Super Bowl potential talk in 2026.
Every New England Patriots fan should believe this team takes a big step forward in 2025. With Mike Vrabel taking over head coaching duties there is a proven coach at the helm. Josh McDaniels might not be fit to be a head coach in the NFL, but as offensive coordinators go he has a track record of success and helped turn Mac Jones of all people into a viable NFL starter for a period of time.
Now he’ll get to work with Drake Maye.
New England had money to spend in free agency and they spent it, and added a solid draft class.
Still, they’ll have to contend with Josh Allen and the Bills, and a deep AFC. Improvement is one thing, which Patriots fans should expect. But making a title run seems like a 2026 expectation.
CAN’T: You’re kidding, right?
The Saints have a chance to be historic in 2025, and not in a good way. It’s difficult to find a team lacking more talent at every single position than New Orleans. The shock retirement of Derek Carr only added to the issue, and now we have a horror story about to unfold with Tyler Shough leading an offense that underperformed last season with Carr under center.
Once again this offense will be all about running Alvin Kamara until his legs give out, and throwing in some Taysom Hill trick plays. The Saints are old on the defensive line and pass rush, they have some bright spots in the secondary — but it’s going to be an ugly few years in New Orleans until the team fixes its cap mess.
CAN’T: Have you seen their schedule?
It would be very easy — and perhaps funnier — to make some jokes about Mr. Unlimited, Jameis Winston, Jaxson Dart, and everyone’s favorite Italian quarterback Tommy DeVito. But the fact of the matter is that the player who wins the starting job (along with the rest of the Giants) is going to face an absolutely brutal schedule.
Not only do the Giants have to place the Commanders and the Eagles twice each, but they also get the Cowboys twice. But beyond their divisional slate, with the NFC East squaring off against the AFC West this year that means the Giants have games against three more playoff teams from 2024 in the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos, plus a game against the improved Raiders. Add in games against the Lions, Packers, and Vikings and you have three more playoff teams on their 2025 slate.
By 2024 winning percentage, the Giants have the toughest schedule in the league this year.
That’s not funny at all … if you’re a Giants fan.
CAN’T: The dreaded transition year.
I (again, this is Schofield for those keeping track) remain a believer in Justin Fields years later. I also believe that what Aaron Glenn showed last year with a depleted Detroit defense made him arguably the better head coaching candidate out of the two Lions coordinators. So having that head coach and quarterback combination wants me to argue that the Jets can make a deep playoff run.
But the AFC overall, and even the AFC East itself, are just too tough. And the Jets are going through a transition year, breaking in a rookie head coach and a quarterback on his third team in three years. They’ll be better, but they won’t be good enough.
CAN: They’re the Philadelphia Eagles
While the NFC might not have the top-end quarterbacks of the AFC, it’s fair to make the argument that Eagles are better equipped to win in the modern NFL than teams with more highly touted quarterbacks.
A strong running game with the best RB in football, an offensive line who can maul anyone in front of them, and stellar weapons at receiver are complemented by an aggressive, young defense that’s gifted at almost every position. The Eagles play complete team football, and have very few weaknesses. In fact, even after winning the Super Bowl there’s an argument to be made that this unit is only getting better as some of its defensive pieces have more experience under their belts.
Make no mistake: The Eagles are here to stay, and will be a major threat once more.
CAN’T: Desperation, aka “Aaron Rodgers”
The Steelers’ reputation is one of being a considered, sensible team. That all flew out the window this offseason. Pittsburgh is in a bizarre win-now mode, acting as if the world will end in 2026 — which, to be fair, it might.
All “jokes” aside, nobody really understands what the Steelers are doing here. They made a giant move for D.K. Metcalf, then signed Rodgers who doesn’t mesh with him stylistically. As for putting one of the most assertive QBs with Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator — good luck with that. They overpaid T.J. Watt out of concern for the future. It mortgaged their future cap for a belief they can compete for a Super Bowl right now, yet they’re a full tier or more below the likes of the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills.
This whole experiment seems destined for failure. Desperation is not a plan, and that’s all Pittsburgh is running on.
CAN: Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh
Like it or not, Kyle Shanahan has his avatar back in Brock Purdy, after the team signed him to a new deal back in May. Purdy’s ability as a quarterback remains a flashpoint in the NFL media content game, but he is the perfect quarterback for Shanahan. While some of the weapons in the San Francisco offensive huddle are a year older, Shanahan can still get this unit — and his quarterback — to score points.
But the bigger addition might be Robert Saleh, who returns as the defensive coordinator following a stint as the head coach of the Jets. During a previous run in San Francisco as the DC, Saleh helped build one of the game’s better defensive units. While the 49ers defense has taken a step back in recent years, Saleh gives the organization a chance to turn that unit around, and make the 49ers contenders again.
CAN’T: Questionable moves
It’s tough to know what the heck the plan for the Seahawks is. The team dumped Geno Smith, signed Sam Darnold to massive money, then traded D.K. Metcalf, who would have been their top receiver. It’s a bizarre passage of events, and it feels a lot like the this team is trying desperately to find a path forward, but are unclear what that path is.
It’s reasonable to expect the Seahawks will take a step back this season.
CAN’T: Let’s be reasonable here
The Bucs are without a doubt the best team in the NFC South, but that’s a little like being the most attractive pig in the hog contest. Tampa Bay just doesn’t have the tools to content with the top teams in the NFC – yet.
Baker Mayfield’s resurgence has been so fun to watch, and the front office is due massive props for managing to keep the band together when everyone assumed they’d lose Chris Godwin, but that doesn’t mean this team will suddenly be a Super Bowl contender.
This is a team on the right trajectory, but they need a little bit more incubation time. It would also help if they can go a year without losing their offensive coordinator.
CAN’T: Ask again in 2027
Cam Ward looks like an upgrade at the quarterback spot. But the Titans look like a team that is a year away from being a year away. The decision to waive former first-round WR Treylon Burks brought a significant problem into focus: The Titans’ last few drafts have not exactly given them a foundation for a playoff run. In particular the draft classes from 2020 through 2022 have set this team back a few cycles.
Ward offers an upgrade at the game’s most important position. They added several new starters on both sides of the football. But expecting a Washington-style turnaround this season is asking too much from this roster.
CAN: The Jayden Daniels Factor
As is often the case in the NFL, if you answer the quarterback question you solve a lot of problems for a roster, and Washington did just that last season with Daniels. The rookie propelled the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game, taking over for a team that finished 4-13 the previous session and guiding them to a 12-5 record and a pair of playoff wins.
That — plus a lot of cap space — made Washington an attractive destination this offseason. Yes, they have the Terry McLaurin situation to sort out, but with the additions they made, a second-place schedule, and a full year in the NFL under Daniels’ belt, the Commanders are legitimately in a window to contend.
