F1 rumors: Would Max Verstappen really leave Red Bull?

Formula 1’s silly season kicked into high gear early a season ago, with Lewis Hamilton’s shocking decision to leave Mercedes at the end of the 2024 campaign and move to Ferrari.

Could another champion be headed to his former team?

F1 is ablaze this week with rumors of Max Verstappen making a shocking move to Mercedes. While the Silver Arrows are off to a solid start this season with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, neither driver is under contract beyond 2025, and rampant speculation about a shocking Verstappen move has picked up in intensity today, thanks to a report from Sky Sports Italy that talks between Mercedes and Verstappen have reached a “decisive” phase.

However, SB Nation has been unable to confirm those reports, and other outlets have thrown some cold water on that position. Sky Sports F1 “understands Verstappen has not indicated he wants to leave Red Bull early, nor has there been an official approach from Mercedes for the reigning F1 world champion,” and Erik van Haren of De Telegraaf indicated Wednesday morning that while there is “interest,” nothing has changed and Verstappen has not said “yes” to any such move.

Given all the rumors, we thought it was time to take a look at this story from all sides. Why would Mercedes be interested in Verstappen now, why might he be open to such a switch, where would that leave their current drivers, and what do we think will ultimately happen?

Why would Mercedes want Max Verstappen?

Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images

Let’s start with an easy question.

Why would Mercedes want Max Verstappen? Well … he’s Max Verstappen. A four-time Drivers’ champion who pulled the RB20 — by no means the fastest car on the grid a season ago — to another title in 2024.

Wolff has stated in the past that he has some “regret” over not signing Verstappen back in 2014. In an interview with ESPN back in 2023, the Mercedes boss talked about meeting with Verstappen’s representatives in August of 2014, as the young driver was looking for a spot on the grid.

“I spoke to Jos and Huub Rothengatter [Jos Verstappen’s manager during his F1 career] when they came to my office in Brackley and that must have been when Max was in karting or the end of his karting days [in 2013] just before Formula 3 [in 2014],” said Wolff.

“And then we spoke again when Max and Jos visited me in my house in Vienna. We spent a few hours discussing his future.

“Do I regret missing out on Max? Certainly.”

However, Verstappen was “not an option” for Mercedes at the time. The team had both Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg on the grid, and when Rosberg retired after the 2016 campaign, Verstappen had secured a seat and Mercedes had Valtteri Bottas waiting in the wings.

But now, the four-time champion may be an option. At least one Wolff is taking the time to explore.

That caveat here is that Mercedes again has two good drivers, both of whom have been part of the Mercedes family for years (more on that in a moment). While neither Russell nor Antonelli has won a Drivers’ Championship — Hamilton won his first in 2008 and was in the process of winning his second, and first with Mercedes, back in 2014 — Russell is having perhaps his best season yet. Antonelli has largely lived up to the hype around him so far in his rookie season, giving Mercedes a young and promising pairing they could keep in the fold and build around for 2026 and beyond.

But as we will talk about next, 2026 may be a reason this is even on the table.

Would Max Verstappen make a move to Mercedes?

Let’s start answering this question with some contract discussion.

As Red Bull boss Christian Horner continues to make clear, Verstappen is under contract with the team through 2028. This allows Horner to dismiss the discussion around a potential Verstappen move as noise, as he did during the Austrian Grand Prix.

However, as this former lawyer will tell you, there is always a way out.

Recent reporting indicates that the way out for Verstappen is twofold: A lack of success on the track, and a lot of money off of it. According to recent reports if Verstappen is not in the top four of the Drivers’ Championship standings by the summer break this season, which comes after the Hungarian Grand Prix at the start of August, then he can negotiate an exit from Red Bull.

However, that would also carry a staggering buyout price due to Red Bull, which Sky Sports F1 estimates would be north of £100 million/$135 million.

At the moment, Verstappen sits third in the F1 Drivers’ Championship standings. He is 61 points behind leader Oscar Piastri and 46 points behind second-place Lando Norris.

Looking behind him Verstappen has a nine-point lead over the driver in fourth.

Russell.

Behind Russell, Verstappen has a 36-point edge over Charles Leclerc in fifth.

Assuming for the moment that Verstappen slides down the pecking order enough to trigger this exit clause, and that Mercedes is willing to pay the price tag, would Verstappen truly leave Red Bull for the Silver Arrows?

Maybe, and it might be because of what is on the horizon.

New regulations arrive for the 2026 season that will shape the future of F1, literally and figuratively. Not only do those new regulations include aerodynamic changes to the cars, but power unit changes as well, such as a 50/50 split between the hybrid system and the Internal Combustion Engine on the cars.

One of the worst-kept secrets in the paddock is that Mercedes may have a significant advantage when next year arrives, thanks to their power unit program. When the sport shifted to turbochargers for the 2014 season, the Silver Arrows began a period of dominance that ran through the 2021 campaign, during which the team won eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships, and seven Drivers’ titles.

Only Verstappen’s title in 2021, where he edged out Hamilton on the final laps of the season, broke that run.

Meanwhile, over at Red Bull the team’s partnership with Honda comes to an end after this season, as they turn to Ford and begin a new partnership. Under this partnership, Red Bull Ford will supply both Red Bull and Visa Cash App Racing Bulls with power units beginning in 2026, through at least the 2030 season.

Honda, however, heads to Aston Martin as their power unit supplier, giving Adrian Newey another card to play as the legendary designer sets his sights on 2026.

Nothing in F1 is a given, and with teams such as Alpine, Williams, and yes, McLaren customers of Mercedes, there is a chance that those teams as well enjoy success with the new Mercedes power units next year. Or, that the paddock chatter does not bear out when the lap times count for real next season.

But if Mercedes is about to embark on another dominant era, given what we saw during the 2014 regulation change that addressed power units to such an extent, you can understand why Verstappen would be intrigued by the idea of moving to Brackley.

Consider what Newey said to Sky Sports F1 during this season’s Monaco Grand Prix. “I mean Max, obviously a formidable competitor, but he’s also a very simple beast – and I mean that in an entirely complimentary way,” said Newey back in May.

“He just wants a fast car that he can showcase his talents in.

“So I suspect Max will always chase who he thinks will produce the fastest car.”

This mirrors what Horner has said in the past when dismissing Verstappen rumors, and the driver’s own words back that up. During the 2020 season he had this to say when rumors ran through the paddock about a potential switch: “Even when I was very young, I only wanted to be in the fastest car, whether it was Ferrari, Mercedes or Red Bull.

“Yes, I think I can do it next year with Red Bull.”

And he did, taking the 2021 Drivers’ title.

So if Verstappen believes the paddock chatter and believes Mercedes will have the fastest car, then he might be open to the move, as the reporting in recent hours indicates.

Where would that leave Russell and/or Antonelli?

Here is where things start to get tricky for Mercedes.

In a world where Verstappen makes the move to Brackley, who would be out?

The likely answer there is Russell. With Antonelli so far living up to expectations — the 18-year-old driver sits seventh in the Drivers’ Championship standings and secured his first podium at the Canadian Grand Prix — Mercedes likely looks to secure his services for the long term, locking up their future.

And a Verstappen-Antonelli pairing gives them a current champion for the present.

That would leave Russell as the odd man out in Brackley, and while he would have options, including perhaps Red Bull, it would mean the end of his run at Mercedes.

And it would come just as he is putting together his best season in the sport. After Hamilton’s surprise announcement that he was leaving Mercedes for Ferrari, there were questions regarding whether Russell was ready to take on a leadership role at the team. All the driver has done in response to those questions is deliver a stellar start to the 2025 campaign with five podiums to date, including a win at the Canadian Grand Prix.

So … what happens?

So what happens?

If you ask me, nothing happens, and this is simply a matter of all parties doing some due diligence.

If you are Wolff, and you have a pair of drivers on expiring contracts, you are going to survey the landscape to see if an upgrade is available. Verstappen, even with the promise Antonelli has shown and what Russell has done this season, is a potential upgrade.

Wolff gave a window into that due diligence when he confirmed that some discussions were taking place. “You need to be respectable towards the stakeholders in all of that process – the organisation, the drivers, everybody,” said Wolff following the Austrian Grand Prix.

“You need to understand the way forward. I don’t want to be sadistic in letting a driver wait or not taking any decisions when it should be taken.

“I feel we are in a good space, we’re [in] June, there are lots of discussions around.

“I’ve been open with it, transparent. And at a certain stage, in the next couple of months, until the summer break, everything is going to be done.”

And from Verstappen’s point of view, Newey is likely spot-on. He wants to be where the fastest car is, and if the paddock chatter is correct Mercedes might be that team next year. So he would certainly at least show some interest in a move, even if ultimately he stays where he is.

In the end, however, if I were to make a prediction I would say that things remain status quo. If Mercedes truly is going to start on the front foot with their power unit program next season, paying the buyout for Verstappen might seem like an exorbitant expense given the fact that they might be at a significant advantage already. Yes, a pairing of Verstappen-Antonelli might be stronger than Russell-Antonelli on paper, but if they have a fast car, that leaves them in a position of strength, without the $135 million or so it would cost them for a buyout.

And they would have a driver in his prime in Russell, and a driver starting out with worlds of potential in Antonelli.

Plus, if this potential exit is also predicated on Verstappen sliding to fifth in the Drivers’ Championship standings by the summer break, how likely is that possibility?

That might be why Wolff has deferred talks of an end date to these discussions until August.

Everyone is doing their homework now, but from where I sit, the status quo is likely the answer to the test.