Valspar Championship odds, picks: Fleetwood, Schauffele favored

March 19, 2025

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The final event of the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing heads to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, which is in Palm Harbor, just outside of Tampa. It’s a doozy, too, with eight out of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) teeing it up this week.

That includes World No. 3 Xander Schauffele, who will make his third straight start after missing two months due to a rib injury. He has not looked like his major-champion self over the past two weeks, but Schauffele is one of the favorites because he is always a threat to win. Perhaps he knocks off some of the rust this week and does just that.

The other favorite at this week’s Valspar Championship is Tommy Fleetwood, currently the ninth-ranked player in the world. The Englishman has had a remarkable run of consistency dating back to his second-place finish at the Olympics last July. He has posted 14 straight top-25 finishes around the world, but has no wins to show for it. Remarkably, ‘Tommy-lad’ has yet to win on the PGA Tour. Maybe that will change this week.

And then there is Justin Thomas, who has shown flashes of brilliance so far in 2025. He tied the course record at TPC Sawgrass last week, has three top-10s already this season, and ranks 10th on tour in strokes gained approaching the green. His iron play has been flawless, but his putter has let him down at times. If he can get the ball rolling this week, maybe Thomas will break a nearly three-year winless drought. His last win came at the 2022 PGA Championship.

As for the course itself, the tournament yardage is listed at 7,352 yards — the same exact length as TPC Sawgrass last week. But this course is a par-71, whereas Sawgrass plays to a par-72. As such, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is the longest par-71 that the PGA Tour has played so far this season. Other notable developments related to this week’s layout are that the 9th hole has been lengthened, and the rough will remain at 3.75 inches. Tournament officials increased the height of the rough from three inches to 3.75 two years ago. Since they did so, the winning score has been 12-under and 10-under, respectively.

Scores could be everywhere this week, especially given Thursday’s forecast. Oddsmakers changed the lines after the PGA Tour released the tee sheet on Tuesday afternoon, favoring those playing in the Thursday morning-Friday afternoon wave. Thursday afternoon’s forecast looks ominous, with isolated showers and gusts up to 32 miles per hour predicted. The rest of the week, however, looks good, albeit chillier than usual, with breezes around 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Valspar Championship Odds:

Here are the latest odds for players to win the Valspar Championship, courtesy of FanDuel:

Tommy Fleetwood +1100

Xander Schauffele +1200

Sepp Straka +1600

Justin Thomas +2000

Tom Kim +2200

Sam Burns +2200

Shane Lowry +2800

Michael Kim +3000

Adam Scott +3500

Corey Conners +3500

Keith Mitchell +4000

Byeong Hun An +4000

Will Zalatoris +4500

Thomas Detry +4500

Stephan Jaeger +5000

Rasmus Højgaard +5000

Jacob Bridgeman +5500

Kurt Kitayama +5500

Jordan Spieth +6000

Joe Highsmith +6000

Harry Hall +6000

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6500

Nicolai Højgaard +7000

Alex Smalley +7000

Kevin Yu +7500

Billy Horschel +8000

Viktor Hovland +8000

J.T. Poston +8000

Taylor Moore +8000

Luke Clanton +8000

Jake Knapp +9000

Kevin Roy +9000

Sahith Theegala +9000

Ben Griffin +9000

Jhonattan Vegas +9000

Matt Kuchar +9000

Thorbjorn Olesen +9000

Rico Hoey +9000

Matt Wallace +9000

Gary Woodland +10000

Ryan Fox +10000

Valspar Championship, PGA Tour — Like last week at TPC Sawgrass, the Copperhead Course’s closing stretch is one of the better one’s on the PGA Tour. It’s also known as ‘The Snake Pit’ for it’s difficulty.

Playing Through’s Picks:

Jack Milko — Staff Writer, Golf

This is one of the more challenging tracks on the PGA Tour, a course that requires precision from tee to green and avoiding the big number on the scorecard.

Corey Conners does that as well as anybody.

Over the past two weeks, on difficult Florida courses at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, Conners finished solo third and tied for 6th, respectively. He posted eight rounds under par over that stretch, an incredibly impressive stat considering Bay Hill played to an average of 72.577 (+0.577 over par), and TPC Sawgrass wreaked havoc over the weekend. Those who made the cut at The Players saw brutal conditions, as the average score over the final 36 holes was 73.45 — a total you would see at a U.S. Open. Yet, Conners made only three bogies during the third and fourth rounds, two of which came because he could not get up and down from the sand. The other came by way of a three-putt.

He shot a 6-under 66 early on Saturday before the wind kicked up and then posted a 1-under 71 on Sunday.

The Canadian gained almost six strokes off the tee last week at TPC Sawgrass, good for third among the field. He is also 19th on tour in driving accuracy percentage and 32nd on tour in greens in regulation percentage this season. It’s worth noting that Conners ranked third in strokes gained approach throughout 2024 too. He keeps the ball in play and hits plenty of greens.

The one knock on him, though, is his short game, as evidenced by his mistakes over the weekend at The Players. Putting is not his forte. Neither is his play around the greens. He let plenty of opportunities slip by at both Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. But I have a feeling that Conners gets the ball to drop in the hole this week.

His record at the Valspar Championship is solid, too. In his only two starts at Copperhead, Conners tied for 16th in 2018 and finished T-21 in 2021. He betters that this week and then some by picking up the third PGA Tour title of his career.

FanDuel Odds: Conners to win at +3500

Corey Conners, PGA Tour, The Players — Corey Conners has made six of seven cuts so far this season.

RJ Ochoa — Senior Producer, Blogging the Boys

One of the hottest golfers in the world right now is Michael Kim. He may not have made as big of a splash in Ponte Vedra, but he was knocking on the door a week earlier at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Before missing the cut at The Players, he had finished inside of the top 13 in five straight starts, with three of them being top-six finishes.

Lest we forget that Kim made multiple eagles in a round for the first time in his career at Bay Hill. The point is that he is playing at an insane level, even if last week was an off-one for him.

With the odds working in my favor, I really like Michael Kim to pick up a huge win this week.

FanDuel Odds: Kim to win at +3000

Michael Kim, PGA Tour, The Players — Michael Kim missed the cut by one at The Players.

Mark Schofield — Staff Writer, NFL and Formula 1

Copperhead is a track where your second shot might matter more than your first.

Which is why I’m backing Sepp Straka this week.

Straka is one of the best players this year in strokes gained on approach, ranking sixth in that statistic on the PGA Tour with a mark of 0.933. He’s fifth in greens in regulation (73.69%), and Straka ranks eighth on the tour on approach shots from within 100 yards. He’s also third in proximity to the hole.

This is a tough course, but with how well he’s playing with his irons right now, it could be perfect for him.

FanDuel Odds: Straka to win at +1600

Sepp Straka, PGA Tour, The Players Championship — Sepp Straka won The American Express earlier this year.

Jed Meshew — Staff Writer, MMA Fighting

First off, thanks for letting me join this little shindig. Though my expertise lies in combat sports, I’m an avid golf fan (and super-mid player) and very much enjoy taking flyers on tournament champion picks. So, with that in mind, let me tell you why I’m backing Justin Thomas this weekend.

Thomas didn’t have the best weekend at the Players, finishing tied for 33rd, but there’s a reason he has low odds again this week: Thomas’s electric second round saw him tie the course record 62 at TPC Sawgrass. If you haven’t seen it, go check out the highlights because it’s something to marvel at.

Thomas had complete control and arguably left a few shots out there. For a course that requires precision, Thomas has the ball going right where he wants it (don’t talk to me about his 78 on Thursday; that’s in the past, and the past is for cowards). On top of that, Thomas famously loves the Copperhead Course and has two Top 10 finishes in his past three trips here.

FanDuel Odds: Thomas to win at +2000

Justin Thomas, PGA Tour, The Players — Justin Thomas last won on the PGA Tour in 2022, when he claimed his second PGA Championship title.