Smith, C., Baker, J. C. A. & Spracklen, D. V. Tropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation. Nature 615, 270–275 (2023).
Vancutsem, C. et al. Long-term (1990–2019) monitoring of forest cover changes in the humid tropics. Sci. Adv. 7, 10 (2021).
Silva Junior, C. H. L. et al. The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 5, 144–145 (2020).
Zeng, Z. et al. Deforestation-induced warming over tropical mountain regions regulated by elevation. Nat. Geosci. 14, 23–29 (2021).
Spracklen, D. V., Arnold, S. R. & Taylor, C. M. Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489, 282–285 (2012).
Lawrence, D. & Vandecar, K. Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 27–36 (2015).
Khanna, J., Medvigy, D., Fueglistaler, S. & Walko, R. Regional dry-season climate changes due to three decades of Amazonian deforestation. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 200–204 (2017).
Staal, A. et al. Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century. Nat. Commun. 11, 1–8 (2020).
Spracklen, D. V., Baker, J. C. A., Garcia-Carreras, L. & Marsham, J. H. The effects of tropical vegetation on rainfall. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 43, 193–218 (2018).
Leite-Filho, A. T., Soares-Filho, B. S., Davis, J. L., Abrahão, G. M. & Börner, J. Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon. Nat. Commun. 12, 2591 (2021).
Li, Y. et al. Local cooling and warming effects of forests based on satellite observations. Nat. Commun. 6, 6603 (2015).
Alkama, R. & Cescatti, A. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover. Science 351, 600–604 (2016).
Duveiller, G., Hooker, J. & Cescatti, A. The mark of vegetation change on Earth’s surface energy balance. Nat. Commun. 9, 679 (2018).
Winckler, J., Lejeune, Q., Reick, C. H. & Pongratz, J. Nonlocal effects dominate the global mean surface temperature response to the biogeophysical effects of deforestation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 745–755 (2019).
Winckler, J., Reick, C. H. & Pongratz, J. Robust identification of local biogeophysical effects of land-cover change in a global climate model. J. Clim. 30, 1159–1176 (2017).
Dominguez, F. et al. Amazonian moisture recycling revisited using WRF with water vapor tracers. JGR Atmos. 127, 4 (2022).
Staal, A. et al. Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 539–543 (2018).
van der Ent, R. J., Savenije, H. H. G., Schaefli, B. & Steele‐Dunne, S. C. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resour. Res. 46, W09525 (2010).
Cui, J. et al. Global water availability boosted by vegetation-driven changes in atmospheric moisture transport. Nat. Geosci. 15, 982–988 (2022).
Staal, A., Koren, G., Tejada, G. & Gatti, L. V. Moisture origins of the Amazon carbon source region. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 4 (2023).
Devaraju, N., Bala, G. & Modak, A. Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 3257–3262 (2015).
Hansen, M. C. et al. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342, 850–853 (2013).
Potapov, P. et al. The global 2000-2020 land cover and land use change dataset derived from the Landsat archive: first results. Front. Remote Sens. 3, 856903 (2022).
Skamarock, W. C. et al. A description of the Advanced Research WRF model version 4. NSF https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97 (2019).
Insua-Costa, D. & Miguez-Macho, G. A new moisture tagging capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting model: formulation, validation and application to the 2014 Great Lake-effect snowstorm. Earth Syst. Dynam. 9, 167–185 (2018).
Qin, Y. et al. Sub‐grid representation of vegetation cover in land surface schemes improves the modeling of how climate responds to deforestation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 50, 15 (2023).
Chen, C.-C. et al. Thermodynamic and dynamic responses to deforestation in the maritime continent: a modeling study. J. Clim. 32, 3505–3527 (2019).
Duku, C. & Hein, L. The impact of deforestation on rainfall in Africa: a data-driven assessment. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 6 (2021).
Taylor, C. M. et al. “Late-stage” deforestation enhances storm trends in coastal West Africa. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119, 2 (2022).
Yang, Z. & Dominguez, F. Investigating land surface effects on the moisture transport over South America with a moisture tagging model. J. Clim. 32, 6627–6644 (2019).
Elguindi, N. et al. Regional Climate Model RegCM Reference Manual v. 4.7 (ICTP, 2017).
Danabasoglu, G. et al. The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2). J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 12, e2019MS001916 (2020).
Staal, A. et al. Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 044024 (2020).
Flores, B. M. & Staal, A. Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene. Glob. Chang. Biol. 28, 5041–5061 (2022).
Zemp, D. C. et al. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017).
Staal, A., Dekker, S. C., Hirota, M. & Van Nes, E. H. Synergistic effects of drought and deforestation on the resilience of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest. Ecol. Complex. 22, 65–75 (2015).
Li, W. et al. Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992–2015). Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 219–234 (2018).
De Hertog, S. J. et al. Effects of idealized land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle. Earth Syst. Dynam. 15, 265–291 (2024).
Chen, M. et al. Global land use for 2015-2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Sci. Data 7, 320 (2020).
Lejeune, Q., Davin, E. L., Guillod, B. P. & Seneviratne, S. I. Influence of Amazonian deforestation on the future evolution of regional surface fluxes, circulation, surface temperature and precipitation. Clim. Dyn. 44, 2769–2786 (2015).
Nakicenovic, N. et al. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (eds Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000).
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
Feng, X. et al. How deregulation, drought and increasing fire impact Amazonian biodiversity. Nature 597, 516–521 (2021).
Lamb, D., Erskine, P. D. & Parrotta, J. A. Restoration of degraded tropical forest landscapes. Science 310, 1628–1632 (2005).
Houspanossian, J. et al. Agricultural expansion raises groundwater and increases flooding in the South American plains. Science 380, 1344–1348 (2023).
Dottori, F. et al. Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 781–786 (2018).
Challinor, A. J. et al. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 287–291 (2014).
Aragão, L. E. O. C. et al. 21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions. Nat. Commun. 9, 536 (2018).
Doughty, C. E. et al. Drought impact on forest carbon dynamics and fluxes in Amazonia. Nature 519, 78–82 (2015).
Masuda, Y. J. et al. Warming from tropical deforestation reduces worker productivity in rural communities. Nat. Commun. 12, 1601 (2021).
Wang, D. et al. The critical effect of subgrid-scale scheme on simulating the climate impacts of deforestation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, e2021JD035133 (2021).
Flores, B. M. et al. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 626, 555–564 (2024).
Lawrence, D. M. et al. The Community Land Model Version 5: description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty. J. Adv. Model Earth Syst. 11, 4245–4287 (2019).
NOAA National Centers of Environmental Information. Global Surface Summary of the Day – GSOD. 1.0 (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 1999).
Hou, A. Y. et al. The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95, 701–722 (2014).
Funk, C. et al. The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes. Sci. Data 2, 150066 (2015).
Sadeghi, M. et al. PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies. Sci. Data 8, 157 (2021).
Nguyen, P. et al. PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): a near-real-time, quasi-global satellite precipitation dataset. J. Hydrometeorol. 21, 2893–2906 (2020).
Smith, C. et al. Observed and simulated local climate responses to tropical deforestation. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 104004 (2023).
Kumar, S. et al. Land use/cover change impacts in CMIP5 climate simulations: A new methodology and 21st century challenges. JGR Atmos. 118, 6337–6353 (2013).
Lejeune, Q., Davin, E. L., Gudmundsson, L., Winckler, J. & Seneviratne, S. I. Historical deforestation locally increased the intensity of hot days in northern mid-latitudes. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 386–390 (2018).
Thiery, W. et al. Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation. Nat. Commun. 11, 290 (2020).
Qin, Y. Impact of Amazonian deforestation on precipitation reverses between seasons. figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24911454 (2023).
Hersbach, H. et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020).
Justice, C. O. et al. An overview of MODIS Land data processing and product status. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 3–15 (2002).
Hong, S.-Y. & Lim, J.-O. J. The WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6). Asia Pac. J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 129–151 (2006).
Kain, J. S. The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 43, 170–181 (2004).
Hong, S.-Y., Noh, Y. & Dudhia, J. A New vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes. Mon. Weather Rev. 134, 2318–2341 (2006).
Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J. & Clough, S. A. Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res. 102, 16663–16682 (1997).
Dudhia, J. Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 3077–3107 (1989).
Jiménez, P. A. et al. A revised scheme for the WRF surface layer formulation. Mon. Weather Rev. 140, 898–918 (2012).
Jin, J. & Wen, L. Evaluation of snowmelt simulation in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D10110 (2012).