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7 new NFL head coaches, ranked by how likely they are to immediately reach playoffs

With the news that the New Orleans Saints have finalized a deal to make Kellen Moore their next head coach, all seven job openings have been filled.

Now, in perfect sports media manner, it is time to rank them.

The criteria? What incoming head coach has the best chance of seeing the playoffs in 2025?

Let’s dive in.

7. Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints

Kellen Moore was a very good hire considering the Saints’ circumstances, but that’s precisely why he’s at the bottom of this list. This is a franchise that kept kicking the salary cap can down the road, convinced they would find a way to break through and have success — and that simply never materialized.

Not only are the Saints one of the oldest teams in the NFL by average player age, but they essentially have nothing to show for it. Alvin Kamara and Cam Jordan are slowing down, the quarterback situation is a mess, there’s no real weapons on offense other than Chris Olave — and New Orleans is predicted to be $59 MILLION over the salary cap. This time they’re out of ways to restructure deals and ignore the problem. The reckoning is here, and it’s going to take time to correct.

At this point the Saints need to tear things back to the foundation and build this properly. It remains to be seen if that will happen long-term, but they won’t be contending for anything in 2025.

6. Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys

The issue here isn’t really the roster, of Schottenheimer, or anything that’s inside of the Cowboys’ control. The problem is that they share the NFC East with the Eagles and Commanders.

The reality in Dallas at this point is that their roster just isn’t good enough to contend, and the front office went all-in on guys who can’t get the job done together. Yes, this was a team that was severely bitten by the injury bug in 2024, but it’s difficult to see a path forward for even a healthy Cowboys roster making it past the Super Bowl champs, or Washington’s newfound success.

If Mike McCarthy couldn’t get the job done then believing Schottenheimer can is blind hope, not logic. When it comes to the NFL: Don’t trade in blind hope.

5. Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders

I’m actually pretty excited for the Pete Carroll era of the Raiders. The coordinator hires (Chip Kelly as OC and retaining Patrick Graham as DC) really fire me up, and Carroll, despite being 73 years old, is still a good head coach. However, if we’re ranking them based on how likely they are to reach the playoffs in 2025, the Raiders have quite literally the worst hand of the new hires. Not only are they in the same division as the reigning AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs, but the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos both made the playoffs last year. It’s going to be an uphill battle for the Raiders to get into the playoffs–but I would sure like to see Pete Carroll try.

4. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets

Credit where it’s due to the Jets, because they managed to land one of the most promising head coaches in the entire NFL despite being a dumpster fire of a franchise in ownership, and having a team hand-crafted for Aaron Rodgers.

Glenn’s history with the Jets made this happen, and considering the dearth of talent in New York it’s a testament to how good Glenn could be that he finishes fourth on this list, knowing full well that he’s in a division with the Bills and Dolphins.

There are huge question marks to be sure. Nobody knows if Aaron Rodgers will play football, or hang upside down in an Indonesian bat cave in 2025, feasting on locust larvae as his only sustenance. Couple that with Garrett Wilson potentially wanting out, and there’s significant work to be done on the offensive side of the ball.

That said, the Jets defense remains pretty damn talented. Robert Saleh showed what this unit is capable of, and Aaron Glenn should be able to get them back to form. If the defense can remain strong and Breece Hall can run the ball effectively then New York has the potential to shock some people. It’s still an outside chance, however.

3. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots

The 2024 New England Patriots suffered from a lack of talent at several positions, so seeing them listed third might come at a surprise.

But the 2025 Patriots have a few things going for them. One, the presence of Drake Maye. While the roster needs work around the quarterback position, Maye showed during his rookie season the clear potential to become a franchise quarterback. This gives the Patriots a window to build around him and maximize that rookie contract.

Second, the Patriots have the resources to do just that. Not only do they hold the fourth pick in the upcoming NFL Draft — and are likely to seen a top-tier, non-QB prospect fall to them — but the Patriots have the most effective cap space in the NFL this offseason. Eliot Wolf has over $110 million to work with this offseason, and while New England might have to pay a premium to land big free agents, they have the space to do just that.

Add in a coach who has seen the playoffs before, and you might just have something.

2. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears

Last offseason there was a great deal of excitement about the Chicago Bears.

With first-overall selection Caleb Williams coming in at quarterback, and Ryan Poles adding Rome Odunze a few selections later, the Bears added a wealth of young talent on the offensive side of the football. Making those updates to a roster that finished 7-10 — and won four of their final six games — had some thinking Chicago could make a surprise playoff push in 2024.

Of course, that did not materialize. The Bears lost ten straight games, kicked off by a stunning loss on the game’s final play against the Washington Commanders, and head coach Matt Eberflus was fired before Thanksgiving.

Now, the Bears turn to Ben Johnson, the hottest name on the head coach hiring market the past two offseasons. If Johnson can get the most out of Williams, the Bears could be dangerous this season.

1. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s not a stretch to say that the 2024 Jaguars were a talented team undermined by coaching. The lack of preparation and execution on offense was evident every week, when for the first three quarters the Jaguars looked like they just found out about a football game a few hours before it started. However, with new head coach Liam Coen in tow, I think the Jaguars have one of the better young offensive minds in the NFL. His ability to adapt and retool his offense around what his players do best was the embodiment of the 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I think he’ll bring that creativity to Jacksonville. Plus, Jacksonville is in a division that is very winnable for any team. There’s an opportunity for Coen to make the playoffs in his first year.

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