Ecuador’s young president, Daniel Noboa, who is known for aggressive law-and-order policies and a mastery of social media, failed to win a majority of votes in his bid for re-election on Sunday, forcing a runoff election against Luisa González, the leftist he defeated in the last presidential race.
With about 96 percent of the ballots counted early on Monday morning, Mr. Noboa had received 44.37 percent of the votes cast. Ms. González, the closest of his 15 opponents, had 43.86 percent.
Polls before the election had suggested that Mr. Noboa, 37, could win a majority, making a second round of voting unnecessary. But the race proved to be tight, apparently reflecting ambivalence about Mr. Noboa’s tough-on-crime tactics in Ecuador, which has been plagued for five years by a surge in drug-related violence.
About an hour after polls closed at 5 p.m., supporters of Mr. Noboa were gathered outside a hotel in Quito, the capital, where he had been expected to speak, honking car horns, waving flags and chanting “just one round.” But by 10 p.m., they had dispersed.
Near Ms. González’s campaign headquarters at 10 p.m., a few hundred people were dancing, pouring shots of liquor and chanting, “Long live Luisa!”
In a speech to her cheering supporters, Ms. González said her campaign had captured “the feeling of a people that has been forgotten.”
“We do not want a state of war, we want the construction of peace,” she said.
Ms. González, 47, belongs to the party led by former President Rafael Correa, a powerful and polarizing figure. Many voters have expressed nostalgia for the low crime rates and strong economy that characterized his presidency, while others remember his authoritarian style and his conviction on corruption charges.
Mr. Noboa is a Harvard Kennedy School graduate who comes from one of Ecuador’s wealthiest families, with a fortune built partly on banana exports. He has been in office for little more than a year, having been elected in 2023 to complete the term of a president who was facing impeachment.
At stake is the direction this troubled nation of nearly 18 million people will take as it grapples with widespread violence and high unemployment, which have driven tens of thousands of Ecuadorean migrants north to the United States. The country has also faced an energy crisis, with prolonged power outages.
Critics of Mr. Noboa say that if he is re-elected in the second round of voting, which will be held on April 13, there could be troubling consequences for democratic norms, the rule of law and civil liberties.
Last year, after prison riots broke out and gunmen seized a TV station, Mr. Noboa declared a state of internal armed conflict, which allowed the military to patrol the streets and prisons. He also sent the police into the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest an Ecuadorean politician charged with corruption who had sought refuge there, in what was seen as a brazen breach of diplomatic protocol.
Mr. Noboa’s supporters say he is a bold leader willing to break the rules and stand up to corrupt forces. In April, Ecuadoreans endorsed his hard-line approach to security by voting to enshrine the enhanced military presence into law and give the president more powers to combat gang violence.
“I think that a president never has to compromise with anyone,” Juan Arias, 32, who owns a furniture and upholstery cleaning company, said on Sunday outside a polling station at a high school in Chimbacalle, a middle-class Quito neighborhood, where he said he had voted for Mr. Noboa. “For me, that is what gives me security as a citizen.”
But Jonathan Andino, a childhood friend of Mr. Arias who accompanied him to the polling station, said he had voted for Ms. González, who is often defined by her relationship to Mr. Correa because he chose her to represent his party.
Mr. Andino, 32, an architect, said life had been better when Mr. Correa was president. “There were more jobs. There was economic stability. There was health, education,” he said. “The problem is that Ecuadoreans have no memory; they forget things.”
Five years ago, Mr. Noboa was a political unknown. He was elected in 2021 to Ecuador’s legislature, where he served one term.
His predecessor as president, Guillermo Lasso, called for early elections in 2023 as he faced impeachment proceedings over embezzlement accusations. In campaigning for the first round of voting, Mr. Noboa rose from the bottom of the polls to finish in second place after a strong debate performance. He then beat Ms. González in a runoff.
His victory was partly fueled by voters’ strong desire for change amid the surge in gang violence. The 2023 presidential election itself was bloody, with one candidate assassinated.
For years, Mr. Correa’s leftist movement defined Ecuadorean politics, and some analysts said the results on Sunday demonstrated its persistent popularity.
Mr. Noboa performed poorly in regions with some of the country’s worst security problems, suggesting that the voters most affected by violence might be unhappy with his policies, said Risa Grais-Targow, the Latin America director for Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.
In legislative elections that were also held on Sunday, Mr. Noboa’s party, which was formed less than a year ago, was leading Mr. Correa’s party with 81 percent of the votes counted.
Ledy Zúñiga, a former justice minister from Mr. Correa’s party who was running for the National Assembly, pushed back against the notion that Ms. González represented the past.
“More than going back to the past, the issue is to have a team with experience and technical knowledge, because public administration is not easy,” Ms. Zúñiga said,
Despite Mr. Noboa’s tough measures, violence remains pervasive in Ecuador. Over the past five years, drug trafficking has expanded, drawing in international criminal groups and unleashing extraordinary levels of violence in the once-peaceful nation. Last month saw more violent deaths than any month in the past three years, according to police data.
Many Ecuadoreans blamed Mr. Noboa’s harsh tactics for the deaths of four children in the western province of Guayas, whose charred remains were found weeks after they were forced into a military patrol car in December. The case set off outrage and protests against the military, and a judge ordered the detention of 16 military personnel.
Security and the economy are not the country’s only major problems. Because Ecuador is largely dependent on hydroelectric energy, a drought last year caused daily 14-hour power cuts for about three months. The crisis shut down businesses and endangered entire industries.
Critics say Mr. Noboa’s campaign has been defined more by image — the country has been flooded with cardboard cutouts of him — than by specific proposals to address Ecuador’s challenges. Mr. Noboa has deftly employed social media to project an image of youth and vigor that has captivated many people.
Mr. Noboa often speaks vaguely about throwing “the old Ecuador” in the trash. Ms. González has emphasized addressing the security crisis by strengthening institutions like the justice, health and education systems.
José María León Cabrera contributed reporting.
