Only two teams are left standing in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
Ohio State and Notre Dame meet later tonight in Atlanta with a shot at a national championship. While both teams have earned one more game and a chance at a title, only one will emerge victorious.
Here are three reasons why Ohio State will be that team.
Jeremiah Smith creates too many problems for a defense to solve
When the National Championship Game kicks off Monday night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Ohio State true freshman Jeremiah Smith might be the best player on the field. The young wide receiver has been sensational for the Buckeyes this season, hauling in 71 passes for 1,227 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Those yardage and touchdown numbers pace Ohio State.
Smith was a force in the Buckeyes’ first two Playoff wins, catching 6 passes for 103 yards and a pair of touchdowns in their win over Tennessee, and following that with a 7-catch performance against Oregon, banking another 187 yards and a pair of scores.
As you might expect, Texas dedicated a lot of attention to him in the Cotton Bowl. But the problem with focusing so much on Smith is that his gravity creates opportunities for the rest of Ohio State’s talented wideouts. While Texas was holding Smith to just one reception receivers like Carnell Tate, Emeka Egbuka, and tight end Gee Scott Jr. were finding opportunities in the Longhorns’ secondary. Even running back TreVeyon Henderson took advantage. On the 75-yard screen pass that went for a touchdown just before halftime, Smith had a cornerback and a linebacker bracketing him underneath, with a safety shaded over the top.
Whether producing himself, or creating chances for his teammates, Smith is going to be a huge factor Monday night.
Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson
Notre Dame enters the National Championship Game with one of the best passing defenses in the nation. The Fighting Irish allowed an average of 165.1 yards passing this season — second only to Ohio State — and held opposing passers to an NCAA Passing Rating of 99.5, lowest in the nation.
While that might help Notre Dame when Will Howard looks to throw, it could come at a cost.
Enter running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
While the Fighting Irish have been stout against the pass, it is a much different story when other teams look to the ground. Notre Dame allowed an average of 133 yards per game on the ground, well outside the Top-25 defenses in that category.
Even in their win over Penn State Notre Dame gave up 204 rushing yards, with Kaytron Allen notching 82 yards on 19 carries and Nick Singleton picking up 84 yards and 3 touchdowns on his 15 rushing attempts.
Notre Dame may look to slow down the Ohio State passing game, but that could open up opportunities for Judkins and Henderson on the ground Monday night.
Jim Knowles and the OSU defense
We now turn to the state of play when Notre Dame has the football.
Jim Knowles has built one of the best defenses in the nation. The Buckeyes are a stellar, all-around group. Ohio State allowed just 251.1 yards per game this season, tops in college football. They allowed just 161.1 yards per game through the air, tops in college football. They allowed just 89.9 yards per game on the ground this season, third-best in the nation.
And they sport the best scoring defense in the land, giving up just 12.2 points per game this year. Only twice did they give up more than 17 points in a single game, and both of those came against Oregon.
Oregon will be watching this game from the sideline along with the rest of us.
Up front Jack Sawyer and defensive tackle Tyleik Williams give Knowles players that can win in one-on-one situations, Sawyer on the edge and Williams in the interior. They can scheme pressure as well, with their win over Indiana back in the regular season a perfect example of what things look like when Knowles turns to the blitz game. And in the secondary they look to Caleb Downs, the safety in the middle of the field, as the ringleader of an opportunistic group.
Ohio State’s offense may grab the headlines, but this defense could be the main reason they bring home a title Monday night.
