Holiday 2024 Seen Strong as Retailers Expected to Meet or Beat Forecasts

Mother Nature brought a blast of cold weather to Eastern and Midwestern cities in the final days before Christmas, spurring sales of seasonal merchandise and furthering the industry consensus that retailers will emerge from the holiday season in good shape.

Through November and December, price promotions were kept in check, typically 25 to 40 percent off, occasionally up to 60 percent, and inventories were well managed, maintaining the right balance between comp sales gains and inventory growth. It’s been a steady holiday run that saw significant turnouts at stores and malls.

Best-performing categories are said to be apparel, particularly athleisure, teens and young adult fashion; casual and athletic footwear; health and personal care, and sporting goods. Gift cards have been bestsellers this season, and several retailers saw solid demand for dresses and men’s wear-to-work clothes seemingly generated by the ongoing return-to-office trend. On the other hand, consumer electronics and appliances were on the soft side.

Overall, retailers benefited from early Black Friday deals as far back as Halloween in many cases, and a surprising surge in business from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, as well as deepening adoption of AI for personalizing offerings and conveniences like BOPIS, or buy online, pick up in store.

“Super Saturday visitation data provides valuable insights into consumer behavior as the holidays approach,” said R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai. “While value has been a primary focus for much of 2024, consumers are still willing to spend on discretionary items, as shown by the relative strength and visits to beauty and self care stores, department stores and sporting goods retailers.”

With only 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, versus 31 last year, there was less of the lull in shopper traffic typically seen during the post Cyber Week. Now retailers are figuring on finishing the season on plan or possibly even above plan. In the fall, retail experts and trade groups forecast 3 to 4 percent sales gains for the Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 period, with November generating larger gains than December.

What Lies Ahead

Post-Christmas, the holiday business continues. Retailers will see consumers exchange gifts, redeem gift cards for self-purchases, and take advantage of January clearances.

Regarding 2025, there’s some uncertainty. Department stores are cautiously said to be placing orders at levels flat to 2024, while independent retailers, including smaller specialty stores with one or a handful of locations, are ordering at levels anticipating gains of around 3 percent, according to Joor, the business-to-business wholesale platform for brands and retail buyers. Grocery prices remain high and there’s widespread fear over the specter of new tariffs being implemented by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

On the positive side, however, general merchandise prices have been deflating, continued gains in the stock market and wages are expected, and some of the holiday momentum is likely to spill into 2025, lifting hopes that the retail business will be OK in the year ahead.

Regarding 2025, “There is a little uncertainty,” said Jim von Maur, president and chief executive officer of the Davenport, Iowa-based Von Maur department store chain. “Consumers are still stressed out over inflation. They can’t buy as many units. Groceries are eating up more of their wallet. But I want to say that the worst of inflation is behind us and hopefully wages will catch up. I’m optimistic that the economy will continue to grow and remain healthy.”

As for holiday 2024, von Maur added, “It’s going to end up very good for us.”

He expects a slight comp increase and a total sales increase. “We’re seeing a lot of foot traffic. People are going back to the stores. The malls have been busy. E-commerce continues to grow but we are seeing more people out physically, in stores. Our new store in Pittsburgh has been just phenomenal, exceeding all of our expectations. What’s funny is that dressy areas — dresses and men’s clothing — were very strong. Petites have been strong. We also sold some incredibly expensive handbags.”

Von Maur listed Uggs, Vuori, Madewell, Vineyard Vines and Nic + Zoe as among the store’s top-selling brands.

“Weekend traffic was off the charts,” said Stephen Yalof, president and CEO of Tanger, the Greensboro, N.C.-based operator of 39 outlet centers and one lifestyle center. “The weekends have been critically important to make up for the five fewer days. We’ve been hearing that the stores in our centers are doing very well. We’re definitely seeing more cars than last year so we are very optimistic about this holiday season. It’s outpacing last year as far as traffic.”

Currently, Yalof said, “Retailers are continuing to make new deals across our portfolio. Retail open to buys [for signing leases] have not been reduced. Retailers are now looking at 2026. When retailers are looking that far out, that bodes well for business.”

“We think this holiday season is building a nice foundation for next year,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. “People are spending, but being thoughtful and considerate in their spending.”

Selective, Value-Oriented Shopping

“Many retailers were bracing for a subdued shopping season given the shortened time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but what we saw at Primark stores in the U.S. was focused and intentional gift shopping with customers looking for value rather than the casual browsing we may have seen in years past,” observed Kevin Tulip, president of Primark in the U.S.

“Shoppers were focused on creating joy for those on their lists and we saw huge demand for our fun and exciting collaborations and licensed product….We saw huge demand for the Grinch, Disney, and local sports gear,” said Tulip. “As far as the return of brick-and-mortar shopping, I think this year proved that shopping in-person isn’t going anywhere. We saw very strong sales days in some of our stores on Black Friday and Super Saturday and new stores that opened during the season had lines 800-plus long.“

“It has been a good season,” said Heather Kaminetsky, president of North America for the Munich-based Mytheresa luxury website. “Customers have been active this holiday season purchasing for themselves as well as their loved ones. We see that our customer has many engagements to attend to, from holiday parties to the slopes.”

In womenswear, gowns and pumps had “strong momentum” with designers like Alaïa, The Row, Loewe, Gucci and Rebecca Vallance, Kaminetsky said. “We are finding that in our menswear gift guide, the categories most people are gravitating to are wallets, belts and sunglasses. For men, Moncler puffer jackets, Loewe x Suna Fujita shoulder bags and Brunello Cucinelli knits were popular. Much like the women’s category, the children’s partywear had a strong season with shoes to match. The ski category for Mytheresa continues to grow year-over-year.”

Super Saturday Delivers

“It’s a very solid holiday season,” said Steve Sadove, the former chairman and CEO of Saks Inc. “Retailers’ promotions are being well managed and my sense is that retailers are managing inventories carefully. I expect that margins are in line with expectations.”

Super Saturday weekend, Sadove said, was very busy, and there was a shorter lull in business between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

There was also a big lift in shopper traffic on Super Saturday, which each year is the last Saturday before Christmas. According to Placer.ai, the location intelligence and foot traffic software firm, visits to indoor malls increased 177.1 percent compared to the year-to-date daily average; visits to outlet malls increased by 192.1 percent, and visits to open-air shopping centers rose 105.8 percent. 

Placer.ai also indicated that the retail segments with the most traffic were beauty and self, up 38.4 percent compared to 2019, and the discount and dollar store categories, which together saw visits up 21 percent compared to 2019.

“It was a very merry Christmas,” said Bob Mitchell, co-CEO of Mitchells Stores. “Business was super strong. Every area was up in the strong double digits. In men’s, clothing, sportswear, furnishings and shoes were all good, with luxury sportswear having the best growth.”

Specifically, he said each of his company’s eight high-end stores sold lots of sport coats, many with soft construction, from the stores’ largest vendors — Zegna, Cucinelli, Brioni and Kiton. Dress shirts as well as more expensive casualwear from Pescarolo and similar brands also performed well.

In sportswear, “big winners” were outerwear and sweaters. “Anything cashmere at all price points was good in both men’s and women’s,” he said.

Women’s overall posted double-digit growth, Mitchell continued, led by handbags and shoes from Loewe, Manolo Blahnik and Gianvito Rossi, as well as ready-to-wear from Nili Lotan and Khaite, the new brand TWP, and the perennially popular Cucinelli and Akris. Mitchell said Loewe and Celine rtw were also strong.

The Mitchells group of stores ran no promotions during the season and will begin their promotions in the new year, as planned. Looking toward 2025, Mitchell is upbeat about the new year. “The client feels really good. People want high touch, high service with a mix of brands helped by high-level sales associates. Most clients don’t want to dress head-to-toe in the same brand and that’s what we do. So it’s a winning formula.”

Ken Ohashi, CEO of Brooks Brothers, was similarly upbeat. “For Black Friday, our stores were strong and that momentum continued.” The online business, boosted by Cyber Monday, also carried that momentum into December. “That’s a big change for us,” he said. “The web had been lagging the stores, but the direct business is strong now.”

Not surprisingly, Brooks doesn’t sell many suits on the web, with customers gravitating toward sportswear, shirts and womenswear. But because of the company’s successful “Black Watch” holiday campaign, more formal looks were popular in the stores. The customer responded well to the campaign, “which drew strength to our formal side,” Ohashi said.

Outside of that, elevated sportswear, led by knitwear and sweaters, also did well. The company’s average unit retail was up in the double digits this year. “We’ve been really focused on our full-price business,” he said, particularly on the web, which had been more promotional in past years. “But we don’t have much clearance merchandise this year,” he said.

Regarding 2025, Ohashi said he’s optimistic. “We’re coming in very clean, but it’s always hard to know. We hope the formal side of the business continues to perform for us. We’re offering newness there because when that works, it lifts the entire business. And this coming spring and summer, we want to build more volume in sportswear. We’re doubling down on performance, which performed well for us this year, so we’ll see what happens.”

Ken Giddon, president of Rothmans, the men’s store in New York City, also reported a good holiday season. Although sales were “a little low” around the election, they rebounded as the year went on and “finished strong.” Like other retailers have observed, Giddon said people are no longer working from home like they did during the height of the pandemic. “People who stopped buying clothes during COVID are back in the market. They don’t like the way things fit and they look dated.”

In addition to the traditional Christmas gifts of accessories, Rothmans stores also did well with pants. “Men are able to recognize when their pants are out of date,” Giddon said. And the stores were able to build on that by adding sweaters and sport coats to the customers’ shopping carts, to update their wardrobes.

Rothmans ran no promotions during the season and is expecting a good 2025. “A lot of independents had one of their best years this year and we’re one of those,” GIddon said. “So we’re feeling good about next year. Our buying team is staying ahead of the trends and we hope to execute at a B-plus or an A-minus, which would be a good grade for us.”

Upping the Forecast

“We raised our holiday forecast to 6.2 percent growth, year-over-year, based on growth in the last couple of weeks,” said Johnson of Customer Growth Partners.

Johnson forecast 5 percent growth after Black Friday weekend, and in early October had forecast 4 percent growth. “We are very encouraged. We’ve seen retail sales strongly gathering momentum ever since the first week of November and accelerate into December. There was also a very shallow traditional December lull after which retailers got a second wind. Sales growth continued on Super Saturday. It was really the ideal timing for Super Saturday, being four days before Christmas, and creating just the right level of urgency. You don’t want it to be a week before or the day before Christmas.

“Retailers are dealing with a value-focused consumer who has been resilient and resourceful making purchases on a much more considered basis,” Johnson observed. “We are seeing a shift to lower prices, in part because of promotions, which at this stage of the game are normalized, but we are also seeing very good traffic.”

The holiday season would have been even better were it not for what Johnson described as a dearth of big-ticket sales including appliances, lawn mowers and televisions. “There was also the trade-down factors. People are shifting to entry price points, or to good versus better or best prices points, within different categories. There are also channel shifts causing declines in average selling prices, with people shifting from department stores to Walmart, Dollar General or to off-pricers like TJ Maxx, Ross [Stores] and Burlington.”

However, overall, Johnson added, “Conversion rates rose modestly, so combined with the rise in footfall, transaction velocity rose strongly.”

As one real estate executive, who requested anonymity, said, “I think it’s going to turn out to be a good season. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the industry is up 4 percent or more. November by itself was up over 5 percent, after the first 10 days of the month being down materially because of the election. Then people decided there wasn’t going to be disruption,” with any protesting over the outcome. “Now traffic is up in centers, but you should realize that part of the increase has been because it’s a shorter season,” in terms of the number of days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Yalof said at Tanger centers, the best-performing categories proved to be health and beauty, athleisure, athletic and apparel brands. “The Gap Inc. brands have been reinvigorated. There is a lot of interest in all four of the company’s brands,” which are Gap, Old Navy, Athleta and Banana Republic.

Other brands he said were experiencing a good season are Sephora, Lululemon, Coach, American Eagle and Nike. In addition, he sees people getting dressed up more often, and spending more money on office attire. In 2025, people expect to spend more days working in the office, rather than at home, Yalof suggested. He also looking forward to gift card redemptions post-Christmas. “They’re a huge driver of traffic into the stores after the holiday selling season,” Yalof noted. “If you get a $100 gift card, you can buy a $200 item and feel you got $100 off.”

Weather wise, while much of the fall season was unseasonably warm, Super Saturday was just what retailers wanted — a dramatic drop in temperatures encouraging shoppers to buy coats and cold weather accessories as well as a lot of hot food and drinks.

“Super Saturday was the coldest and snowiest Super Saturday in New York City in over 10 years,” said Evan Gold, executive vice president of Planalytics, which helps retailers plan their inventories based on its weather forecasting. “Average temperature in New York City was 28 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 9 degrees colder than the last Super Saturday and we had the first snowfall on Super Saturday in the city since 2016. Boston, Atlanta and Nashville were also the coldest in over 10 years with each market trending 10 to 15 degrees colder than last year. Chicago and Minneapolis were their coldest since 2016, and Miami was at its coldest since 2018.

“The weekend featured the first snowfall of the season in major East Coast markets, but it was not traffic-limiting,” Gold added.

In fact, the snowfall, combined with frigid temperatures, likely helped get consumers into a winter mindset while they were doing last-minute shipping. This was great news for retailers looking to sell cold weather gear to holiday shoppers. Demand spiked for boots, gloves, hats, outerwear and sweaters, as well as hot foods and drinks. Mall traffic was up, while outlet center traffic dipped due to the extreme cold.

“January will feature regional [weather] trends although the East Coast and Great Lakes are likely to be colder than last year, which will help demand for clearance of cold weather categories,” Gold predicted. “Warmth will be focused in the central regions and parts of the Northwest and Southwest, helping store traffic on a year-over-year basis.”

Holiday 2024 Trends