It wasn’t so long ago that the 2024 Los Angeles Rams were a team that frightened no opponent. After their Week 5 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Sean McVay’s team was stuck in a quagmire at 1-4. Matthew Stafford was playing in a way that did not at all resemble Matthew Stafford – primarily because Stafford’s two top receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, were out with injuries. Stafford had been pressured on 65 of his dropbacks (34.0% overall), and he was dealing with back soreness.
Just as disturbing was a defense that was filled with young stars oozing potential, but it wasn’t showing up. A defensive line with Jared Verse, Byron Young, Kobie Turner, and Braden Fiske ranked 27th in sacks and 22nd in total pressures. In part because of that lack of quarterback disruption, Los Angeles’ opponent passer rating of 117.7 was the NFL’s worst. And only the Dallas Cowboys (0.12) allowed a higher opponent Rushing EPA per attempt than the Rams’ 0.10.
Basically, none of what the Rams wanted to do was working outside of a run game that held everything together as much as it could. The team had a Week 6 bye, and all McVay could hope was that key players would start to return and recover from injuries, and the team could turn things around… somehow.
“It’s a great, fine balance,” McVay said the day after the Packers game. “Ultimately, the goal is to inspire and encourage positive change with these guys, and the consistent things that we’re looking for. We’re always trying to figure out how to be able to connect, how to make sure that we’re creating that clarity, and then also understand within each of these matchups that occur on a week-to-week basis… what are we doing within our schemes, and what are we asking of our guys to try to help them go shine?”
Whatever magic happened in that week off, it certainly showed up.
After that Week 5 loss, the Rams ranked 25th in Total DVOA; they’ve risen to 17th since. They ranked 17th in Offensive DVOA; now, they’re up to seventh. And that 31st-ranked Defensive DVOA ranking looks a lot better now at 22nd.
Obviously, the passing game is better with Kupp and Nacua back on the field, but just how much better? In Weeks 1-5, the Rams had a Passing EPA of -0.03. With both of their top talents in the game, that has raised to +0.09. Stafford’s touchdown rate has increased from 3.6% to 4.8%, and his interception rate has dropped from 1.8% to 1.5%. And the same guy who completed 118 of 175 passed for 1,238 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.3 in the first five weeks of the season has completed 175 of 264 passes for 2,065 yards, 16 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.8 since.
It also helps that Stafford’s pressure numbers have dropped noticeably – since the bye, he’s been harassed just 81 times (29.2%), which has allowed the 36-year-old to look a lot more like the ninja we have come to expect.
On defense, things have also improved. That league-worst opponent passer rating has reduced itself to 90.6 since Week 7 (post-bye), 11th-best in the league. The Rams’ 19.0 sacks rank 10th since then, and their 109 total pressures rank fifth. The run defense has also improved – -0.03 EPA per attempt since Week 7, which is far more middle of the pack than before.
Now, the 7-6 Rams, who are 6-2 since their bye, prepare to take on the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night in a game that could boot the 6-7 defending NFC champs out of playoff possibility, and could further McVay’s cause as a no-doubt postseason nightmare for any opponent. Last Sunday’s 44-42 win over the Buffalo Bills really cemented just how far the Rams have come in a short space of time.
How has this happened, and what does it mean once the postseason rolls around?
Matthew Stafford has his star wide receivers back
It’s not that the Rams were completely bereft of playmakers when Kupp and Nacua were out. McVay adapted as best he could, running far more 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends, two receivers) than the usual league-high diet of 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) he would prefer. Receivers Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittingtonm, and Demarcus Robinson, as well as tight end Colby Parkinson, were the most prolific pass-catchers in the absence of the two superstars. But it stands to reason that when your most talented guys are back on the field, the situational receivers can go back to that, while Kupp and Nacua can grace us with their brilliance. Nobody’s trying to do too much, and the chemistry Stafford has developed with Kupp and Nacua shows up over and over.
When Stafford has his full array of receivers, and he can attack a defense with all of McVay’s condensed splits, target deployments, and motion concepts… good luck stopping it for too long. The Bills had few answers against any of it.
The Rams offensive line is health(ier)
Part of the reason Stafford isn’t getting pressured as much since the bye is that his protectors are feeling better. Tackle Joe Noteboom and guard Steve Avila were each placed on injured reserve following the Rams’ Week 1 loss to the Detroit Lions, and Avila has been back since Week 9. Noteboom can play either left or right tackle, but the efforts of Alaric Jackson on the left side have been a very pleasant surprise. Jackson, the fourth-year undrafted free agent from Iowa, made Secret Superstars this week after a dominant performance versus the Bills’ pass-rushing and run-stopping efforts.
The @RamsNFL‘s offense was certainly explosive and physical against the @BuffaloBills in the Game of the Year So Far, and LT Alaric Jackson was a big part of that. Very good in pass pro, and he was sealing his edge over and over in the run game. pic.twitter.com/XLJpBhTA1M
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 10, 2024
Jonah Jackson, the former Lions star who was supposed to be the Rams’ center of the future after signing a three-year, $51 million contract this offseason, has just 200 snaps this season as he battles his own injuries. If Jackson can be ready for the final regular-season run and the playoff push, all the better. Beaux Limmer, the sixth-round rookie from Arkansas, has filled in ably in Jackson’s absence.
“I have a lot of expectations for that group, because I know how talented they are, and I know what kind of group they can be,” offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur said Tuesday of his line. “More importantly, I know they have that standard for themselves. With continuity not just on Sundays, but with what they’ve been able to do Wednesdays through Fridays… just starting to get used to hitting combinations together, passing off games together, being in the huddle together, and not being in the training room all day like they were during the first part of the year battling their injuries. It’s good to have them back.”
And it could be even better.
The Rams defense is coming together
The transition from Raheem Morris to Chris Shula at defensive coordinator took a second to kick in, as is generally the case. Ask the Philadelphia Eagles about their defense early in the season under Vic Fangio, and how it’s looked since the players took Vic’s philosophies to the field.
In the Rams’ case, Shula is more likely to run five-man fronts because he has the talent to do so. The additions of Jared Verse and Braden Fiske – Florida State rookies who were already used to working together – has made a big difference, and that’s showed up on the field. These Rams are also a bit more likely to press and match opposing receivers, and there’s a relatively unknown group of defensive backs who are benefiting from that.
Cobie Durant, the third-year fourth-round pick from South Carolina State who also made Secret Superstars this week, has been perhaps the biggest benefactor. We’ll see what the recent addition of 2023 Washington Commanders first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes, who washed out with his first team, can bring to that equation.
Shula also has a tremendously versatile group of safeties and slot defenders in Jaylen McCollough, Kamren Kurl, Kamren Kinchens, and Quentin Lake. It’s a modern defense in that Shula can call multiple fronts and coverages, and while those complexities also require time for everyone to get on the same page, it’s starting to happen.
“It’s really about getting the best 11 on the field, and also what the offense presents,” Shula said this week. “There are certain teams that, based on the personnels that they do, dictate what personnel you’re going to be in and what 11 you have on the field. Fortunately, we have a lot of guys back there that we can kind of move around. That dictates a matchup, the type of schemes and the type of personnels they put on, and the availability of our guys to be flexible. If we have a guy that we feel is good at nickel or good at safety, we’re going to get our best 11 on the field no matter what.”
That “no matter what” mindset seems to have the entire team firing on all required cylinders. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy knows exactly what the challenge will be on Thursday night.
“I think they do a lot to be honest, just coverages and how they play,” Purdy said Tuesday. “They have a lot on tape, which as an offense and a quarterback, you’ve just got to be on top of your stuff per play. Sometimes, there’s those defenses where you walk up and you know what they’re in and sort of expect them to do certain tendencies throughout the game from what you’ve seen on film. But I think these guys do a good job of switching things up, and you’ve just got to be on top of your stuff. Their front is really good and explosive. They’ve gotten better throughout the year. Their secondary, the linebackers, everybody, they all tie together. They’re playing [their] best football right now.
“So, huge challenge for us.”
How far can the Rams take this?
At this point, it would be a bit obsequious to claim that the Rams are up there with the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings among the NFC’s best teams. But it’s also true that since the bye, there aren’t many teams in either conference who would find them anything but a tough out at worst.
Now, the Rams have become one of those “Objects are closer than they may appear” teams that you want no part of. The rest of the NFL is taking notice. They’re currently the NFC’s eight seed, so they’ll need to continue the good vibes to even make the tournament.
But if they do? Watch the heck out.
