The NFL’s annual playoff push is here.
Each season contenders rise and pretenders fall, and December is typically the point on the calendar year when the true separation begins.
Which makes right now the perfect moment to look at the teams that can truly separate themselves from the pack this year. Here are the nine teams we at SB Nation believe can actually have Super Bowl aspirations, ranked by who is most likely to be holding the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans next February.
9. Los Angeles Chargers
We knew Jim Harbaugh was coming back to the NFL at the right time, but the lingering question was whether the Chargers was the right place. Now as we approach the playoffs it’s clear he’s going to make all this work.
Harbaugh’s hard-nosed approach to both offense and defense comes at the perfect time when the league is swinging back to the importance of line play and a strong running game. Despite having none of those things when taking the job, Harbs has managed to mold the team in his image quickly, and Justin Herbert is responding at quarterback to his new role.
Owner of the NFL’s top-ranked defense in points allowed, the biggest issue the Chargers have right now is scoring. In dire need of more weapons, it might take this team a while to reach its full potential — but they also have an outside chance of contending right now. Their ninth ranked spot is more a product of needing to fight through a loaded AFC in the playoffs, which is probably where the story ends for this team, but it’s a monumental achievement that we can even talk about the Chargers as a potential Super Bowl team this early in Harbaugh’s tenure.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
As much as I love the big play ability of their defense, I’m not sure how truly sustainable the Steelers’ offense is for a Super Bowl run. However, you can also say that their high variance play might be the chaos ball they need to go further in the playoffs than they have before. QB Russell Wilson is the king of high variance at this stage of his career, but what he’s doing really well is checking the ball down and getting it into the hands of the Steelers’ playmakers. Letting the Steelers’ skill position guys do the work after the catch and help prop up Wilson during this run is going to be key, because asking him to do it by himself isn’t going to work.
7. Green Bay Packers
The reason I think the Packers can make this deep playoff run is because the offense is built and made for January football. With their physical ground game led by RB Josh Jacobs — which was on full display in the Packers’ loss to the Lions on Thursday Night Football — they can grind teams down with their physicality and just well schemed up and designed run game. They also have a QB who can light up the scoreboard in Jordan Love, who doesn’t take any checkdowns at all. Their receiver group, while incredibly young, has so much variety and has been led by the strong play of Romeo Doubs. This team has an offense built for making a run. The problem is the inconsistent pass rush and overall defensive play. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has done a great job with this defense, but the pass rush can sometimes disappear at critical times. If they can’t get consistent pass rush, it might be an uphill battle, but I’m more than fine believing in this offense.
6. Minnesota Vikings
If there’s ever a year for the Vikings to make an unpredictable playoff run, it’s this one. Minnesota came out of the gates hot when nobody expected they could, and they’ve continued to ride that wave. Sam Darnold is doing everything asked of him at quarterback, but let’s face it: Life is pretty easy when you have guys like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson (among others) to make life easier for you.
The biggest difference maker this season for the Vikings has been defensive coordinator Brian Flores. This organization hasn’t struggled to score in recent years, but the issue has always been a middling defense that forced every game into a shootout.
In two seasons Flores has taken the Vikings from 28th in the NFL in points allowed, to 5th this season. Utilizing the most creative fronts and blitz packages in the league has allowed Flores to craft a defense that causes nightmares, even with a sub-par group of talent — particularly in the secondary.
That’s what makes Minnesota so intriguing as we approach the playoffs. It’s one thing to scheme week-to-week, but the idea of Flores having time to prepare a way to stuff opposing offenses could make this team the Cinderella of the NFL this season, and it really wouldn’t be surprising to see them make a run from the Wild Card to the field in New Orleans.
5. Baltimore Ravens
Let’s start with the obvious: the Ravens have arguably the best offense in the sport. With a QB playing at an MVP level in Lamar Jackson, a physical and menacing run game featuring Derrick Henry and offensive coordinator Todd Monken drawing up the plays, this offense can take Baltimore to the place they haven’t been since 2012. However, the defense is the bigger problem. They’ve dealt with injuries, yes, but the passing game has been wrought with coverage busts and inconsistent pass rush. Justin Tucker is more inconsistent than previous years, so they also lose their special teams advantage. Yet, this team is still good enough to win the Super Bowl, on the back of an offense that can put up points on anyone.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Remember a few weeks ago, when Nick Sirianni was on the hot seat and the Philadelphia Eagles seemed destined for a disappointing season?
Much has changed since then.
Many will point to Saquon Barkley as a reason behind the Eagles’ rise. Philadelphia runs the ball more than anyone in the NFL, with a running play percentage creeping towards 60%. That trend has accelerated in recent weeks, with the Eagles running the football on more than 61% of their plays over their last three games.
But what is also critical to their success in recent weeks is the improved play of their defense. Vic Fangio’s unit is third-best in the league when it comes to Expected Points Allowed per Run, and that group showed exactly what they can do against Baltimore last week.
Last year Philadelphia crashed down the stretch, eventually out of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion. Right now, they look ready to do something different this postseason.
3. Buffalo Bills
This was supposed to be a transition year. It was supposed to be the season that the window closed on this current version of the Buffalo Bills.
Instead, they have asserted themselves as one of the top contenders in the league.
Certainly Josh Allen plays a role. The Bills passer has put himself into the MVP discussion with his play of late, and is on pace to put up big numbers for Buffalo as both a passer, and a runner. But they have also assembled a strong supporting cast around him, leaned into the running game beyond what #17 does with his legs, and look primed to win games down the stretch with what they can do up front on both sides of the football. Their defense is among the league’s best in Expected Points Added against both the run and the pass, and they are at the top of the offenses in the league in both those categories.
That usually adds up to a successful season.
2. Detroit Lions
Nobody in the NFL is more well-rounded or dangerous than the Detroit Lions. Sitting at 12-1 after a hard-fought win over Green Bay Thursday night, the team is poised to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season, and deservedly so. Detroit currently leads the league in points scored, they’re 2nd in points allowed — while also boasting a Top 5 rushing offense and run defense.
Everything is clicking for the Lions this season. A culmination of what Dan Campbell has been building since arriving in the city. It’s a testament to how well organized and coached the Lions are that both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn are seeing their names pop up in head coaching rumors, which makes this season perhaps the last we see this team completely intact as it’s been.
Moving forward there are two major pitfalls the Lions need to avoid: Their pass defense, which ranks 25th in the NFL, and their relative inexperience in big games. They’ll need to mitigate other teams’ ability to attack them in the air, while also ensuring their relatively young roster doesn’t get overwhelmed with the expectations being placed on them.
If the Lions can do this then there’s a very real chance they’re hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come February.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
There are two ways to view the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs.
The most optimistic viewing of the 11-1 Chiefs is that this is a veteran, tested team that has found ways to win in every single game but one. They’ve found ways to win with their offense, their defense, and even with special teams.
While last season the big question facing Kansas City was how they would fare when forced to go on the road in the AFC playoffs, this year has been about the Chiefs facing the monumental task of a three-peat, something that has never happened in the Super Bowl era. A lot of things have to break your way to pull that off, but this year’s Kansas City team has found ways to force the issue, and bend the breaks in their direction.
The more pessimistic approach? The Chiefs are the worst 11-1 team in NFL history, thanks to their +54 point differential this season.
For now, Kansas City has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Unfortunately for them, in the playoff push one bad break can be the difference between a three-peat, and falling short.
