Throughout pro football history, there have been 18 instances in which three teams in a division each made the playoffs. As it stands through Week 11, one division is on pace to become the 19th. The NFC North, by far the best division in football by most measurements, already has the Detroit Lions (one seed), the Minnesota Vikings (five seed), and the Green Bay Packers (six seed) in the conference’s top seven for playoff possibilities.
Where things get interesting is in the NFC West. Not that we’re going to see three teams from that division in the postseason, but everything is in play on and near the west coast. We’ve already discussed the three AFC teams that could turn around their currently playoff-less status with the right winning formulas down the stretch, and here’s how every NFC West team not named the Arizona Cardinals (who are currently the NFC’s three-seed) could ascend into a better place.
Right now, the NFC West is by far the NFL’s most wide-open division. No team has more than six wins, and no team has fewer than five. All four teams have at least a 16.2% chance to make the postseason, and no other division has four maybes like that. So, it makes sense that we have the three teams in that division looking up at the three-seed Arizona Cardinals here.
Note: Team DVOA metrics, opponent-adjusted remaining strength of schedule, and playoff odds are courtesy of FTN, formerly known as Football Outsiders.
Los Angeles Rams (5-5)
Current Playoff Odds: 17.8%
Remaining Strength of Schedule: Fourth in DVOA
Let’s start with the Rams, purely in alphabetical order. Matthew Stafford was without Cooper Kupp in Weeks 3-6 with an ankle injury, and he was without Puka Nacua in Weeks 2-6 with a knee injury. Since both have been back in Sean McVay’s offense, Stafford has looked more and more like the Stafford of old, which is always a dangerous thing for the rest of the league. With both Kupp and Nacua on the field, Stafford has completed 70.7% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt, a touchdown rate of 5.2%, and an interception rate of 1.7%, Without them, Stafford completed 64.4% of his passes for 7.0 YPA, a touchdown rate of 3.0%, and an interception rate of 2.1%.
Where the Rams can really go on a run, though, is with a young defense that is more and more ready to mess up opponents. The front is packed with present and future stars like Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young, and the secondary features first-year safety Kamren Kinchens, who just became the first rookie defensive back ever to win multiple Defensive Player of the Week awards after his stellar performances in Weeks 9 and 11.
The Rams have quite the remaining schedule, with games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and the bloodbath that the NFC West has become. But with two healthy primary receivers, and a defense on the rise in a big hurry, it would be foolish to bet too hard against them.
San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Current Playoff Odds: 26.6%
Remaining Strength of Schedule: Third in DVOA
The 49ers should not be in a place where they’re trying to scratch and claw their way to the postseason. The defending NFC champs rank fifth in Offensive DVOA and sixth in Defensive DVOA, and Christian McCaffrey is back on the field after missing the first eight weeks of the season due to injury.
The issue, of course, is the Kyle Shanahan problem – San Francisco can’t hold fourth-quarter leads. They’ve already lost to all three division rivals despite fourth-quarter advantages, and this isn’t a one-year fluke. In his career as a head coach – we’re not even talking about 28-3 in Super Bowl LI when he was the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator – Shanahan’s 49ers have lost seven games with fourth-quarter leads, by far the most in the NFL since 2017.
“It’s super frustrating,” future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams said back in October.. “Obviously, we have to figure out how to close out games and how to get teams out early when we have the chance.”
The whys don’t matter. The 49ers can’t get much better than they already are when they are sporting a lead. Nothing else will matter if they can’t solve the obvious.
Because that remaining schedule is a doozy. San Francisco has the Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, and Arizona Cardinals left to deal with. Forget about playoffs – with that slate and this problem, this could be a first-to-worst story just as easily as a redemption tale.
Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
Current Playoff Odds: 16.2%
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 10th in DVOA
In 2022, Mike Macdonald’s first season as the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive coordinator, Baltimore ranked eighth in Defensive DVOA. Not bad, but Macdonald still needed the personnel to go with his schemes, and it didn’t happen overnight. That the Ravens ranked first in Defensive DVOA in 2023 tells the longer-term story – when Macdonald has his guys, his defenses are the toast of the league.
Now, Macdonald is in his first year as the Seahawks’ head coach, and he’s trying to resuscitate a defense that had atypically fallen into disrepair on Pete Carroll’s watch. But the personnel doesn’t quite fit yet, which is why Seattle currently ranks 14th in Defensive DVOA, and why Macdonald and general manager John Schneider have been cycling through defensive players at warp speed. It’s starting to show on the field, and given Macdonald’s defensive genius, you can expect that to continue.
The primary problem with Seattle’s playoff hopes this season is an offensive line that may be the worst in the NFL. They’ve worked through multiple centers who can’t seem to snap the ball in the general direction of quarterback Geno Smith. Former Dolphins center Connor Williams was supposed to be the panacea there, but he recently and surprisingly retired from football after suffering his own inaccuracy issues with snaps. Seattle was down to its fourth-string right tackle before Abe Lucas mercifully returned from injury against the 49ers last Sunday after missing the first nine games of the season. And even left tackle Charles Cross, who generally looked above-average to great in his first two seasons, has been getting lit up from a pressure perspective of late.
Smith has been pressured on 39.2% of his dropbacks this season, and this isn’t a young, unaware quarterback who inadvertently runs himself into trouble all the time. Smith has been okay under all that pressure with seven touchdown passes, but seven interceptions have shown the inevitable downside.
The Seahawks are probably a year away from where they want to be in the post-Pete Carroll era, but they should be able to put it together better than this. If Mcdonald’s defense continues to improve, and the offensive line can quit making Smith feel like a kid playing on the freeway, they’ve got as good a chance as anyone else in the Wild NFC West.
