With 11 full weeks in the books for the 2024 NFL season, there are teams that are trying to keep their campaigns from falling into the bidet before it’s too late. None of them are currently in the top seven seeds in their conference playoff picture, but they all have ways to climb out of their dire straits if everything starts to click.
So, here are three teams outside the playoff race in the AFC who could actually play their way in.
Note: Team DVOA metrics, opponent-adjusted remaining strength of schedule, and playoff odds are courtesy of FTN, formerly known as Football Outsiders.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
Current Playoff Odds: 10.5%
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 29th in DVOA
At some point, someone is going to have to help Joe Burrow out a little bit. The Bengals currently rank seventh in Offensive DVOA, 27th in Defensive DVOA, and 29th in Special Teams DVOA, so that tells you a lot about what’s going wrong here. But it’s worse and more ridiculous than you may think. In the Bengals’ seven losses, Burrow has completed 191 of 285 passes for 2,156 yards, 18 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 107.6. Ja’Marr Chase is currently the NFL’s receiving triple crown leader with 73 catches for 1,053 yards and 12 touchdowns. They could do better than running back Chase Brown and his -12.2 EPA, but you can let that slide when your quarterback and No. 1 receiver are playing at Most Valuable Player levels with no positive returns.
The Bengals have lost three games this season in which Burrow had three or more passing touchdowns, 300-plus passing yards, and no interceptions — the most such losses in a season in the Super Bowl era. Want even more? Cincinnati has three losses this season in which Burrow has led them to 33 or more points. In his entire career. Tom Brady had four such losses.
Maybe that’s why Brady, who did a lot to amplify iffy receivers and mid-tier defenses to championships at various points in his career, was so passionate in a recent interview about what everyone else needs to do to give Burrow any level of assistance.
And you can tell that it’s starting to wear on Burrow.
“I would never in a million years expect me to play this well and he play this well and we still have a record like this (4-6).” – Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow react to the Bengals’ 35-34 loss to the Ravens pic.twitter.com/fE4EInaPXm
— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) November 8, 2024
The good news for the Bengals is that their defense probably can’t get much worse, and even a defense in the middle of the pack might turn things around given the relative ease of Cincinnati’s remaining schedule. If that doesn’t happen, Burrow and Chase will be historical footnotes in all the worst possible ways.
Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
Current Playoff Odds: 20.8%
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 24th in DVOA
The Colts have gone back and forth with the idea of propping Joe Flacco up as their short-term quarterback because they’re in the playoff hunt, and going with second-year man Anthony Richardson because the sun is going down, and it’s time to develop Richardson for the future. The once 4-3 Colts lost three in a row before beating the Jets last Sunday, and while beating the Jets isn’t exactly something that you want to put on your resume, it may have saved Indy’s postseason chances, such as they are. But his recent benching seemed to help Richardson, and he’s currently the starter for the rest of the season until and unless head coach Shane Steichen decides to make yet another change that’s a season-long concern (unless it isn’t).
The Colts could use some defensive help as well, but given defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s schematic constraints, there may be limitations to a unit that currently ranks 17th in Defensive DVOA. Bradley’s defense has a ton of four-on-the-floor fronts, minimal coverage switches, and prefers to play as an “execution defense” where it’s more on the players than the playbook. Which is okay if you’ve got all the players.
So, it’s going to be more about an offense that ranks 23rd in DVOA versus a remaining strength of schedule that ranks 24th. Unless Richardson can build on what he did against the Jets in a big hurry, the Colts may have run out of road. But stranger things have happened.
Miami Dolphins (4-6)
Current Playoff Odds: 16.0%
Remaining Strength of Schedule: 27th in DVOA
This one isn’t tough to figure out. When the Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback instead of Tyler Huntley or Skylar Thompson, they’re a much better team. With Tagovailoa on the field, Miami has an Offensive EPA of +0.07, and a Passing EPA of +0.17. Without him, their Offensive EPA is -0.27, and their Passing EPA is -0.25. So, a lot of Miami’s future story is about Tagovailoa staying healthy and non-concussed, and keeping himself out of harm’s way. Which is not always the easiest thing to do.
One point of pressure is out of the way – the 9-2 Buffalo Bills have a chokehold on the AFC East, so the Dolphins aren’t playing for that. Beyond that, Miami’s defense under first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver has seen a serious bump from 28th in Defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-9 to 11th since. Given the general efficiency and explosiveness of Mike McDaniel’s offense when he has the right quarterback, that improving defense, and an easy slate of games down the stretch, the Dolphins, who started the season 1-3, are suddenly a credible postseason possibility.
