Overreacting after the first game of a new season is a right of passage for sports fans. Patience is a virtue, but it’s hard to come by after a long summer without the NBA.
Most of the time, fans’ earliest overreactions only serve to confirm their own agendas. You can do it for almost every team: the Oklahoma City Thunder are poised to run away with the West, the Washington Wizards might lose 70 games, the Denver Nuggets have a real Jamal Murray problem, the Chicago Bulls’ trade for Josh Giddey was a disaster, and Cam Thomas really might lead the league in scoring. All of those agendas are thriving after the first game, as long as you believed them enough in the first place.
Now that every team in the league has played at least one game, it’s time for our biggest overreactions for the 2024-2025 NBA season thus far.
The Celtics will coast to another championship
The Boston Celtics were never really challenged on their way to an NBA championship last season. Boston finished the year 80-21 overall counting the regular season and playoffs, but their road to the title was so easy that not everyone was convinced of their greatness. It should have only taken one game this season to change that.
The Celtics blasted the New York Knicks in their season opener on Tuesday night, routing the team that was supposed to be their biggest challenger in the East. Boston launched threes on 64 percent of their field goal attempts, and tied an NBA record by making 29 of them. The Celtics create open shots so easily with four incredibly skilled ball handlers and shooters in the starting lineup, and they also have one of the best defenses in the league. At this point, it’s time to recognize Joe Mazzulla as one of the NBA’s very best coaches.
The dreaded second apron in the new CBA was supposed to break apart teams as loaded as the Celtics, but ownership decided to re-sign everyone and promptly put the team up for sale. This Celtics roster will be too expensive to keep together forever, but at least for this year, they’re the class of the league once again.
The Victor Wembanyama takeover has to wait another year
It’s only a matter of time before Victor Wembanyama is going to be the best basketball player in the world. As he enters his second season, the 20-year-old Spurs star is on the brink of full-fledged superstardom, but he’s still years away from reaching his ultimate ceiling.
Wembanyama struggled in his season debut in a loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night, in the process showing all the ways he can still optimize his game. Wembanyama should be a dominant interior scorer at 7’5 with an 8-foot wingspan, but he’s still far too satisfied to shoot jumpers on the perimeter. That may be a good strategy one day, but not yet. Wemby started the game 0-for-7 from three-point range, and finished 1-for-8.
The Spurs just didn’t do enough in the offseason to make a meaningful leap up the standings. It sure seems like they not-so-secretly want to get in the Cooper Flagg derby this year. That should disappoint Wembanyama, who has always said the right things about his commitment to winning. San Antonio will win big soon, but it’s not gonna happen this season.
The Hornets are this year’s surprise team
A bad or mediocre team takes a big leap up in the NBA standings every year. Just last season, the Rockets jumped from 22 wins to 41, the Magic jumped from 34 wins to 47, and the Thunder jumped from 40 wins to 57. The Charlotte Hornets are my pick for a similar leap this season, and their season-opening comeback win over Houston was a perfect example of why they’re so enticing.
LaMelo Ball has only played 58 games combined the last two years, but don’t forget he was named an NBA All-Star in his age-20 season a few years ago. Ball can be one of the league’s best point guards with breathtaking ball handling and passing ability, a vastly improved jump shot, and the size to see over any guard defender. Ball erupted for 34-11-8 in the win, and looks like the type of jumbo initiator every team craves. His supporting cast looks better, too.
Tre Mann looked like Gen-Z Allen Iverson by splashing deep pull-ups off the bench on his way to 24 points. New coach Charles Lee had the team taking more three-pointers despite playing lineups that were more defensively slanted. Ball’s co-star Brandon Miller exited early with a hip injury, but he’s going to have a big season, too. Charlotte is making the playoffs in the East. You heard it here first.
Paolo Banchero has an All-NBA season loading
Paolo Banchero has always had superstar potential since being drafted by the Orlando Magic with the No. 1 overall pick out of Duke in 2022. Banchero was Rookie of the Year in his first pro season, and was named an All-Star in his second season. What’s in store for year three? After watching his dominant season opener against the Heat, I’m convinced Banchero will be an All-NBA selection, and the Magic might be a real Eastern Conference contender.
Banchero’s combination of size and skill is what stars are made of. At 6’10, 250 pounds, Banchero handles the ball like a guard, knows how to get to his spots on the floor, and can absolutely bulldoze smaller defenders on switches. If his three-point shot continues to look as good as it did in the season opener (4-of-8 from three), we could be looking at one of the better offensive players in the league.
The Magic just might have another big jump in wins in them this season with Banchero leading the way. Expect at least one playoff series victory — and maybe more.
Evan Mobley is making The Leap
The Cavs have been a very good team in the East the last two years that consistently falls just short of being a real contender. Cleveland hired Kenny Atkinson as its new head coach to get them over the hump this season, and it’s job to get the most out of a talented but mismatched roster. The Cavs’ best chance to make deep playoff run rests on the shoulders of 23-year-old big man Evan Mobley, and the former No. 2 overall pick looked excellent in the first game of his fourth season.
Mobley popped off for 25 points, nine rebounds, three assists, three blocks, and two steals in a Cleveland win. He thoroughly out-played former draft mate Scottie Barnes, and showed the type of offensive improvement the Cavs have been yearning for since drafting him.
Mobley is already one of the league’s best defenders. In his season debut, he looked far more comfortable offensively operating with the ball in his hands. At 7-foot with a 7’4 wingspan, Mobley has developed his handle enough to create scoring opportunities for himself, and he uses that huge frame to create space for easy buckets. He has such a strong sense for how to move off ball on both ends of the floor, and when he gets rolling to the rim, it’s hard to stop him with some added strength to his frame.
Mobley was a fantastic prospect entering the 2021 draft. It looks like he might finally reach the ceiling that’s long been evident in him.
Almost every NBA three-point record will fall this season
The Celtics tied the NBA record (originally set by the 2020 Bucks) for the most three-pointers made in a single game by draining 29 in their season-opening over the Knicks. I’ll predict they break their own record sometime this season … maybe multiple times.
That won’t be the only three-point record to fall this year. These are going down, too:
- 70 three-point attempts by a team in a game, set by the 2018 Houston Rockets
- 14 made three-pointers by a player in a game, set by Klay Thompson in 2018
- 24 three-point attempts by a player in a game, set by Klay Thompson in 2018
- 1,363 made three-pointers by a team in a single season, set by the 2022-23 Warriors.
- 3,721 three-point attempts by a team in a single season, set by the 2018-19 Rockets
- 1,028 three-point attempts by a player in a season, set by James Harden in 2019
The one three-point record I think will still be standing is Stephen Curry’s 402 made threes in a single season, set in 2016. The three-point revolution continues with no end in sight.
