In August, I wrote about why the New York Jets are built on a series of hypotheticals, all of which had the chance of actually being true. One of the sections that I had in that story stands out today, less than 24 hours after the Jets fell to 2-5 after a 37-15 loss to the Russell Wilson-led Pittsburgh Steelers, a game that was supposed to be the first spark of a team that fired their head coach earlier this month. Here’s what I wrote before the season:
Offensively, what if Rodgers is just decent? He doesn’t have to be the MVP he once was, especially if the defense is as good as it can be. If Rodgers can be the most effective point guard in the NFL, getting the ball out extremely quick and hitting enough of the tough throws to keep defenses honest, it’s a good formula for success. RB Breece Hall should be a major player in this offense, with a commitment to the ground game accentuating around Hall’s strengths.
Through seven games, the problem is that I didn’t think about another hypothetical in this scenario: what if the Jets aren’t good enough everywhere else?
Rodgers himself has been decent, playing like a 40-year-old future Hall of Fame inductee. The flashes of the guy he once was is there in spurts, but for the most part this team is built on quick game and YAC, with the occasional Rodgers vintage downfield throw. According to RBSDM.com, Rodgers is 24th in Success Rate this season, which isn’t anywhere near elite status but still it was supposed to be good enough. His 6.7 Air Yards are 6th-lowest in the league, but that can still be a fine thing if you’re winning off of YAC and completing these passes: Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes are first and second in Success Rate this season, but are also at the bottom of Air Yards this season. Where this gets made up is Yards After the Catch, which is what this team was supposed to be built on.
The supporting cast for the Jets all seemingly haven’t taken a step forward this season. While Breece Hall has still been capable of the big play, his 18% Success Rate per Sumer Sports hasn’t been up to par, as well as an offensive line that’s dead last in FTN’s Adjusted Line Yards. They’ve had the highest percentage of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage this year. When it comes to the offensive line, New York was 25th and 28th in ESPN’s Pass Block and Run Block Win Rate, which wouldn’t be good enough even if we weren’t talking about having a 40-year old under center.
Rodgers clearly has lost a bit of a step, not being able to overcome pressure with his legs as often. Rodgers has seen everything there is to see in the NFL when it comes to coverages, which is why he throws the ball so quickly against pressure, but that brings up the question of the skill position players. Acquiring WR Davante Adams was a smart move, but it’s clear the two need more time to get on the same page as they were in Green Bay:
Outside of Adams, Rodgers’ best receiver has been Allen Lazard, which isn’t a great sign at all. The offense that’s been built is reliant on Rodgers to make these superhuman throws, but nowadays he’s Clark Kent more often than Superman.
However, we haven’t even gotten to a defense that has seemingly regressed since being a top-five unit for the last three years. The defensive line is still second and third in pressure and sack rate, respectively, but they’re 29th in Adjusted Line Yards given up. Trading EDGE John Franklin-Myers to Denver and losing Jermaine Johnson to injury has taken a massive hit out of their run defense and they haven’t been able to make up for it. The depth of their defense isn’t as loaded as it used to be, resulting in their defense taking a bigger hit than expected. Their defensive stars have still been good, but not quite the caliber expected of their stature, and that’s an issue when combined with a struggling offense.
Rodgers himself isn’t above blame. As I said earlier, he’s 24th in Success Rate. However, Rodgers the GM and decision maker has undercut Rodgers the player. The Jets are feeling all of the losses they’ve taken in the offseason in hopes of building a team that Rodgers would love, and it puts them on the brink of losing their playoff hopes for good. A defense that’s taken a step back combined with an offense that can’t get out of their own way creates what we have now, and there doesn’t seem to be many solutions coming in.
