As the Houston Texans took on the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, one thing became exceedingly clear from the jump: Texans’ QB CJ Stroud was ON. ONE. Houston’s signal caller went 28-for-38 for 331 yards and a touchdown as the Texans eked out a 23-20 victory. What stood out, however, was Stroud’s ability to make stuff happen on third down. On those money downs, Stroud went 9 for 14 for 151 yards, and moved the chains on eight of those 14 passes.
No matter what the Bills threw at Stroud, he always had an answer, whether it be with his mind or his arm.
Why this matters is because the Texans haven’t exactly been money on early downs. Houston has a -0.06 EPA per play on early downs, a large part of it due to an inability to run the football. However, they’re third in EPA per play on late downs, and it’s largely due to Stroud being a mastermind on these money downs. The Bills literally tried everything, but Stroud made it work in more ways than one.
Buffalo is mugged on this third down, showing two linebackers looking like they’re blitzing. Houston has one guy motion to the formation’s left, then flips the back to the left side as well. With all the motion, Houston is expecting man coverage, and that’s exactly what they get. The way the Bills run their blitz, whichever linebacker the center picks up, the opposite ‘backer drops into coverage. Stroud sees this, knows he’s hot off the edge and picks the best route, this flat to the back out the backfield with the linebacker having to chase from the other side. Easy big play.
This one was a big gain of 18 on third and 9. The Texans motion into a 3×1 formation to the right. At the snap, the Bills rotate into Cover3, but with weakside rotation, meaning that safety at the top of the screen is coming down. The Texans run a Sail concept, with the slot receiver running a jerk route to hold that nickel defender. Stroud has to get this ball up and over the nickel defender, with the corner taking the vertical route.
This is just a day in the park for Stroud, who feathers this one in to move the chains. Entering the NFL, my good friend and colleague Mark Schofield said that Stroud was a professional thrower of the football, and his ability to layer passes with this touch is always fascinating.
This pass was just incredible, moving the chains again on third down. Houston fast motions the slot receiver, and the safety follows him out, showing that it’s man coverage. Houston is running WR Stefon Diggs on a bender route, but Diggs doesn’t have the leverage yet. With Buffalo running a game up front, a pass rusher comes free, forcing Stroud to get rid of this ball a little earlier.
Please just watch where Stroud puts this ball. I stood up after watching this like the Gods of Destruction when Goku went Mastered Ultra Instinct. This ball is put in the literal only spot where it can be placed. Number 7 in Houston is a professional ball thrower, y’all.
Stroud and Houston go up against a Patriots team that’s going to throw a lot at them on money downs, especially with star WR Nico Collins on injured reserve. For the Texans to get out of there with a win, Stroud will once again have to be money on late downs.
