NFL season preview 2024: Power rankings, predictions, trends, and more

Everything old is new again in the NFL, by James Dator

Football is cyclical. This shouldn’t be a surprise for anyone that’s watched the NFL over the years. There are only so many ways the wheel can be reinvented, and we’re well past the point where someone can bring new thinking into the league and succeed — because almost everything has been seen before.

There is one big shift we’ve seen in the league since this time last year: Big boy football is back.

It’s a trend we predicted a year ago, and now it’s in full swing. A return to the halcyon days where a ground game was critical, running backs defined the league, and the first step to competitiveness was to have a balances offense. This time it’s a little different. Days are gone of the big-money, three-down running back — instead replaced by a constantly spinning revolving door of talent, with teams embracing a notion that modern run concepts means almost anyone can succeed, as long as the plan works.

That might seem ridiculous on first glance. The idea that anyone can run in the NFL is a wholly ridiculous concept, but it is something teams are embracing more than ever. Of the 32 running backs who started for teams in 2022 only 14 top the depth chart for the same team in 2024. That’s a 56 percent turnover league-wide, higher than any other position — proof that teams are comfortable moving on from running backs at the drop of a hat.

The fascinating flipside to this is that interior linemen have never been valued more highly. With teams happy to rotate running backs in and out, the constant they want to keep is elite play from their guards and centers, positions which were traditionally seen as expendable.

In 2024 free agency the top-10 guards and centers combined for a staggering $417.75M in contracts, while the top-10 offensive tackles combined to make $84.47M. Granted it was a weak class at OT, but there are now five guards on contracts of $75M or more — the most in the NFL history. Three years ago there was one.

Playing from the inside out is cool again. There’s no doubt that throwing the ball is still king, but we’re seeing a dramatic return to elite interior linemen, disruptive DTs, and collapsing the pocket from the middle. As quarterbacks get better at recognizing pressure off the edge teams have adapted to learn that overwhelming the middle is the key to success.

This is how the Kansas City Chiefs won back-to-back Super Bowls with Chris Jones as their key difference maker, and the entire league took notice and want to emulate it. Elite, pocket collapsing DTs mean interior linemen need to step up to counter them — and that’s the new way of the NFL.

Meanwhile teams are attacking the A-Gap again. Downhill running between the center and guard is the way, ideally with a running back who can both hit the hole for the hard yards, while also being a threat as a receiver when needed. Offenses moved to stacked receivers and mesh concepts with four receivers, so defenses countered by running more dime. That made the box weaker, so now it’s about bruising up the middle to punish that dime. It’s a natural progression that’s changing the league as a whole.

This makes football fun again. There’s less offensive homogenization, and the doomsday future of pass-only football has been avoided, falling by the wayside as the push-and-pull of defensive adjustment has resulted in only three quarterbacks passing for more than 4,500 yards in 2023, compared to four in 2022, and six in 2021. The drop off is happening, and that’s wonderful.

The way teams approach team building around big boy football might be different, but the result is the same. Young coaches are embracing old-school concepts, everything that was thought outdated is roaring back, and the league is better for it.

Welcome to the 2024 NFL season. The state of football is strong, and its future is big. — JD

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