The 2024 NFL season kicks off in less than a week and that means fantasy football draft season is peaking. Whether you’re getting ready for your first draft of the year, or you’ve already completed countless drafts and just want a few more, the clock is almost up.
There are plenty of decisions to make across your draft, but for one person in every draft, the first decision to make right out of the gate is who to pick with the No. 1 overall pick. Whether you’re in a 10-team league, a 12-team league, a 14-team league, or any other number, the number one pick is one of the few decisions that is probably going to be the same in most formats.
We’ll be looking at this through the lens of more traditional leagues. If you have a superflex or 2-QBs, or you otherwise value quarterbacks or certain positions a little different, there might be some adjustments to make. But for most people drafting this week, the No. 1 pick decision will be fairly similar.
What does ADP say about the #1 overall pick?
Average draft position is pretty consistent with San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey going No. 1 more often than not. There are two ways to approach ADP. FantasyPros looks at some of the prominent fantasy football sites, including Yahoo!, Sleeper, and RTSports. They all have McCaffrey consistently going No. 1.
Fantasy Football Calculator offers a look at what a broad range of drafters are doing and McCaffrey leads the way there as well. Injuries were a concern in 2020 and 2021, but since joining the 49ers, he has stayed on the field and incredibly productive.
Who should I pick at #1 in PPR and standard leagues?
It doesn’t change in either league. CMC is a PPR beast, but the sheer volume of his workload means he’s plenty valuable in standard leagues. Even if he doesn’t approach his 21 total touchdowns from last season, he’s going to be finding the end zone plenty for a high octane 49ers offense.
Who are sleepers to consider at #1?
First round options are not sleepers in the traditional sense, but if you want to go against the grain, there are some big name talents to consider. Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill have been consistently going 1.02 and 1.03 in some form or fashion, and some folks have gone after them with 1.01. If you’re going to go after one of those two, it makes sense in PPR leagues. For standard leagues, there’s less value, but it’s still not the worst choice.
Speaking of standard leagues, Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson and New York Jets running back Breece Hall are both getting some love at 1.01. Their overall ADP is a little further back in part because the Falcons and Jets have some significant questions heading into the season. Their upside is undeniable, but both have a relatively high risk to go along with a high reward.
Who should I draft #1 overall in rookie drafts
If you’re in a dynasty league, you likely already ran your rookie draft. But, if it’s not happening until the final holiday weekend and into Week 1, a familiar name has been the first off the board with regularity. Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. has been the clear number one. New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers is second and Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze is third.
Some non-wide receiver options near the top have included Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers and Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. Dynasty leagues can offer significant differences compared to traditional re-draft or basic keeper leagues, but for now, Harrison, Jr. is the choice at the top.
