As we approach the start of the NFL season we’re all trying to work out which teams are the contenders, and who are pretenders. Regardless of what side of the fence you land on, there’s no doubt that each team in the league has one fatal flaw that could decide their season.
We already took a look into the AFC, so today we take a dive into the factors we think could decide the NFC in 2024.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Jerry Jones
Everyone else gets blamed for Dallas’ failures when the man at the top is really the one to blame. A lot of this depends on how the CeeDee Lamb situation plays out, but if he’s not able to be brought back into the fold then Jones immediately becomes the biggest failure point for the Cowboys. It’s the same old song and dance with Dallas: They should be the class of the NFC on paper, but that simply never materializes in the playoffs.
New York Giants: Literally everything
It’s unclear what the Giants’ plan is. It’s unclear if the Giants know what the Giants plan is. They more or less punted on the season back at the draft by rolling forward with Daniel Jones, which was a commitment to mediocrity. Brian Burns makes the defense significantly better, but outside of that the team took a step back, and they’re already in a brutal division. It feels like a long season for the Giants is incoming.
Philadelphia Eagles: Can they push the tush?
The Eagles already took their big step back offensively in 2023 and it became apparent the team really missed former OC Shane Steichen. Now they have to contend with the retirement of Jason Kelce, and with him a key part of their “tush push” strategy. The NFL’s most indefensible play is decidedly weaker as the Eagles’ OL ages, and right now it’s unclear if Jalen Hurts can have the same success with the play this year.
Washington Commanders: Kliff Kingsbury
What’s a nice way to say this? Hiring Kliff Kingsbury to be your OC is a … choice. He’s a man with very definite opinions of how an offense should operate, and he’s not great at adjusting when his Air Raid doesn’t work. It’s a lot of pressure on a team to install a wildly different offense, and to do that with a rookie QB is a big ask. If it works then this team could really surprise the league, if not it will be the biggest reason Washington takes a step back.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: The secondary
There are a few reasons you can believe in the Arizona Cardinals this year. A completely healthy Kyler Murray getting to throw to Marvin Harrison Jr. is certainly a good start on offense. But defensively, if Jonathan Gannon’s defense is going to hold up their end of the bargain, they will need the secondary to step up in a big way. Arizona added three cornerbacks and safety Max Melton in the 2024 NFL draft, and getting them up to speed as quickly as possible would be huge.
Los Angeles Rams: The secondary
Another team in the NFC West has some questions regarding their secondary. Like the Cardinals the Rams made some improvements in the offseason, however, Los Angeles went the veteran route. Les Snead added Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White at corner, and Kamren Curl at safety. If these signings pan out, this could be a solid unit. But if not …
San Francisco 49ers: Pass protection
San Francisco still can claim that they have one of the best rosters in all of football. But if there is a weakness, it is found along the offensive line. Brock Purdy was pressured on 20% of his dropbacks last season — 16th highest among NFL quarterbacks — and the young QB has struggled at times when pressured. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus Purdy posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 67.9% in the regular season when he was pressured (which was fifth-best in the NFL) but that dropped to 57.9% in the playoffs, ranking tenth among postseason passers.
Seattle Seahawks: The learning curve
A new era dawns in the Pacific Northwest, with Mike Macdonald embarking on his first season as an NFL head coach. Macdonald is not the only new face, as Ryan Grubb takes over the offense after spending his career at the college level. How these two get up to speed at the NFL level — and how their players get up to speed with their schemes — will be the biggest story of Seattle’s season.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Lack of secondary edge defender
The Bears’ defense is ready to make the leap, with a young and talented secondary paired with star DE Montez Sweat. However, their biggest issue is not having a secondary pass rusher right now. The hope is that DT Gervon Dexter Sr. becomes that player, but on the edge their options are Demarcus Walker and rookie Austin Booker. How they get pass rush outside of Sweat will be a big thing to watch this season in Chicago.
Detroit Lions: Outside receiver
Call me crazy, but I think the Lions will miss Josh Reynolds a lot more than people believe. The Lions’ offensive core is phenomenal, but their lack of an outside receiver to complement Amon-Ra St. Brown might be their biggest problem. Jameson Williams is incredibly talented, but he has to put together a consistent season first. Outside of Williams, we’re getting into Donovan Peoples-Jones territory, which is where not many teams with the aspirations of the Lions want to be.
Green Bay Packers: Offensive line
The Packers are similar to the Lions in many ways. Super Bowl aspirations behind an offense that could be the best in the NFL this year. However, their biggest issue might come from the offensive side of the ball, in the form of their offensive line. Their issue is consistency and health, with most of the line missing time last year. If that group can’t stay healthy then the offense takes a big hit.
Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold
Are the Vikings cursed? After losing rookie QB J.J. McCarthy to a torn meniscus one game into the preseason, the Vikings turn to Sam Darnold to keep their fringe playoff hopes alive. There’s a camp that still believes in Darnold, and for good reason. In spot duty over recent years, he’s played well! However, as the starter once again, the question is how long can he hold it together before the wheels fall off?
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins
The biggest issue for the Falcons was their defensive line until their stunning trade on Wednesday for Matthew Judon. Now that element of their team should be decent enough to get them through, which puts the pressure back on Kirk Cousins. At this point we know who Cousins is. He’s a great quarterback who falters when the pressure is on. That leaves the Falcons a team on paper that should be as good as anyone in the NFC, but they’re more or less quite similar to the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings, and we’ve seen how that panned out.
Carolina Panthers: Can they score?
There’s no shortage of reasons to make fun of the Panthers, but defensively the team was actually quite good in 2023. The problem was that they simply couldn’t score points. Their 13.9 points-per-game was 31st in the league last year, and if they want any hopes of growing this season they’ll need to score a lot more. This is bigger than just the receiver, Bryce Young, or Dave Canales’ new offense — but rather how everything works in concert. Right now scoring is this team’s biggest issue, and it’s unclear if that will get any better.
New Orleans Saints: Offensive line
The Saints knew their offensive line was in trouble and that was before losing Ryan Ramczyk was put on the PUP list. This team has been desperately trying to move players around, draft replacements, and keep things afloat. Right now it’s really unclear if that can be enough to prevent the Saints from struggling in 2024. Derek Carr doesn’t deal well with pressure at the best of times, and that could really set back New Orleans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The offensive shift
Baker Mayfield and Co. exceeded everyone’s offensive expectations in 2023, but it’s difficult to imagine that will continue. Former offensive coordinator Dave Canales is now in the head coaching role in Carolina, taking former wide receivers coach Brad Idzik with him. That’s left the Bucs with 1st year OC Liam Coen who was at Kentucky, and there are big shoes to fill. Canales was a master at maximizing Mayfield’s potential, and the only way Tampa Bay can win this season is if Coen can keep this rolling.
