The NBA surprises us every year. No one could have seen the Detroit Pistons going from 14 wins to 44 wins last season, or the Indiana Pacers reaching the NBA Finals and pushing the series to seven games. I thought the Clippers would be mediocre at best and then they became one of the best teams in the West. I certainly didn’t have the Cleveland Cavaliers winning 64 regular season games. That’s just the start of it.
There will be more surprises this season as the NBA kicks off the 2025-26 campaign. The conventional wisdom that formed in the preseason will inevitably be bucked, and new narratives will quickly form. Right now, the Thunder are the overwhelming favorite to win the championship, and the Knicks and Cavs are expected to run away from everyone else in the East. Maybe that will hold and maybe it won’t, but there’s still going to be a lot of things the experts are wrong about along the way.
Here are nine bold predictions for the 2025-26 NBA season. Leave yours in the comments below.
Only two teams in NBA history have won 70 games or more: the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors. I think the 2025-26 Oklahoma City Thunder going are to join them. OKC won 68 games last year despite Chet Holmgren missing 50 games plus Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso both missing extended time. Holmgren could be in for a big leap in offensive production at age-23 if he stays healthy this year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he makes an All-NBA team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most consistent perimeter scorer in the world, and he remains every bit as unguardable as he was last season. It would be very surprising if any team can surpass the Thunder for the No. 1 defense in the league, and younger players like Nikola Topic and Cason Wallace could be poised for breakout seasons. While Jalen Williams’ preseason wrist injury is concerning, the Thunder’s depth and defense can carry the day in the regular season even in a conference this tough. The Thunder were my biggest lock to go over their preseason win total set by Vegas, and a 70+ win season shouldn’t shock anyone.
The Nuggets win the 2026 championship
Okay, maybe picking the team tied for second in the preseason championship odds doesn’t count as a very “bold” prediction. That said, the Thunder are such a heavy favorite to repeat that picking anyone but them is a little spicy in my opinion. I’m really encouraged by everything I saw from the Nuggets in preseason. Jamal Murray looks like he’s in good shape to start the year, and no longer weighed down by the leg injuries that have slowed him since Denver’s 2023 championship run. Aaron Gordon took a huge leap as a shooter last year, and he looks like he can’t miss right now. The offense was humming around Nikola Jokic, and will only get better as Cameron Johnson gets more experience in the system. The bench could go from a major weakness last year to a mild strength this season. Jokic is too good to retire with only one championship, and this feels like arguably the best team of his career. It’s going to be a hell of a season in Denver.
The Knicks and Cavs are the big favorites in the East entering the year, but I think the Magic can potentially give both of them trouble in the playoffs. Orlando’s defense should be one of the league’s top units again, and I believe that they addressed the fatal flaw weighing down their offense. The Magic were flat-out-awful at three-point shooting last year, finishing dead-last at under 32 percent as a team. Trading for Desmond Bane will fix a lot of that, and the extra spacing is exactly what Paolo Banchero needs to go from inefficient volume scorer to high-impact offensive hub. The big challenge for the Magic is scheming Banchero and Franz Wagner into actually making each other better. Orlando’s net-rating has always been disappointing with both players on the floor, partially because neither is a reliable three-point shooter. I’m banking on better spacing helping both reach their obvious All-Star potential this year. I love the two rookies Jase Richardson and Noah Penda, and if Anthony Black can improve at all in his third season, Orlando will really be cooking. The Magic basically haven’t had a good offense since Dwight Howard was traded, but there’s too much talent on this team for it to happen again. I’ll bet on the Magic’s defense being elite and the offense improving enough to advance through the playoff sludge. A Nuggets-Magic Finals! You heard it here first.
Alperen Şengün makes All-NBA and finishes top-5 in MVP voting
I had Şengün at No. 6 in my preseason MVP rankings despite the fact that he enters the year 400-1 to win the award. I still think the Houston Rockets are going to be really good even after Fred VanVleet’s season-ending knee injury, and Şengün’s potential jump from All-Star to superstar is a big reason why. Şengün couldn’t get to the rim at times last year because Houston’s spacing was so bad. Adding Kevin Durant to going to help turn those tougher short mid-range shots into easier rim attempts, and I’m also bullish on Reed Sheppard’s translation as a shooter. The Turkish center is playing with a new confidence after his starring run at EuroBasket, and he’s looking like someone who knows he’s the baddest dude on the floor. He has some easy points to pick up if he improves as a free throw shooter and three-point shooter (I’d bet on both happening), and the shocking defensive leap he made last year under head coach Ime Udoka’s tutelage seems sustainable. Houston will be one of the best watches this season, and I’m sky-high on Şengün entering the year.
Domantas Sabonis is the biggest star traded at the deadline
It sure feels like this is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s last year with the Milwaukee Bucks, but I would be shocked if he’s traded during the season. I do think there will be some teams ready to pivot to tank mode ahead of a loaded 2026 NBA Draft, and the Sacramento Kings feel like the most obvious one of the bunch. The Kings look decent on paper with Sabonis, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray, Dennis Schroder, Keon Ellis, and Malik Monk, but I just don’t think the pieces fit. The defense is going to be bad, and I’m skeptical any of the main pieces actually make each other better offensively. The Kings have a new front office, and I just don’t think they’re that tied to this core. Sabonis puts up monster numbers basically every year, and while I don’t think he’s actually that impactful, he should still have a trade market. Add in Utah’s Lauri Markkanen — a younger and more malleable player — and those look like the best names available at the trade deadline.
LeBron plays under 50 games and lines up an offseason move to the Cavs
LeBron James has been named All-NBA for 21 consecutive seasons, which just might be the most legendary stat of his historic career. I think it’s over this year. James is already dealing with sciatica to start the season, and I just can’t see him playing the 65 games required to make All-NBA. The Lakers are officially Luka Doncic’s team, and with an expiring contract this summer, I am skeptical LeBron’s mind or body are really locked in to start this year. I predict he will be on the move in free agency next summer, and while there are a few teams that make sense, ending his career with the Cavs seems like the most logical move. Cleveland is going to be awesome this year, but if they fall short in the playoffs, the LeBron retirement tour potentially getting them over the hump in the East feels like something the public will clamor for. It would feel odd for LeBron’s farewell to take place on the Lakers as Luka is trying to win MVPs and go deep into the playoffs. Mark me down for a quiet year from LeBron, and a very noisy season for him in 2026-27.
The NBA sophomores surprise and start 2024 draft revisionism
The 2024 NBA Draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory due to the lack of an obvious top dog. Everyone wants superstars in the draft, and the 2024 class didn’t have any good bets to get there. Instead, 2024 was a draft full of role players … and a lot them look pretty damn good heading into their second season. I’ve already stamped Matas Buzelis as one of this season’s biggest breakout players for the Chicago Bulls as an elite transition scorer and dependable stationary three-point shooter with real shot-blocking might. Portland’s Donovan Clingan and Memphis’ Zach Edey are two giants who I think are going to be excellent at opposite ends of the floor, Cling Kong with defense, Edey with his scoring and offensive rebounding. Jared McCain looked like the best player in the class before he got hurt last year, and as long as his recent thumb injury doesn’t impact his shooting, he should be one of the 76ers’ better players this season. I was lower on No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher entering the draft, but he’s in a perfect position to have a big year for the Hawks as just one of many weapons around Trae Young. I’m high on Kel’el Ware as an athletic 7-footer with skill, and I’m expecting him to become a key piece for the Heat after an excellent preseason. At least one of Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. are going to emerge for the Timberwolves, and Reed Sheppard will finally get his shot with the Rockets, where his knockdown shooting and razor sharp hands defensively will play well.
I haven’t even mentioned reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle in San Antonio (who really needs to improve his three-point shot), or the No. 1 player on my final board, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Nikola Topic. I was also sky-high on Ron Holland, who might have a bigger opportunity after Jaden Ivey’s injury in Detroit. I’m not ready to say any of these guys will be All-Stars this year or All-NBA players ever, but there’s a lot of high-level contributors in this class that still have room to grow. With another bad draft looming in 2027, maybe the 2024 class will help us avoiding writing off an entire class just because it doesn’t have a Cooper Flagg or Victor Wembanyama.
Zion Williamson makes an All-NBA team
It’s hard to believe Zion Williamson is already in Year 7. It feels like yesterday I flew out to Colorado to profile Williamson ahead of his senior year of high school, well before he would captivate the nation with an all-time one-and-done year at Duke. I really thought Zion would be competing for MVPs at this point, but his body hasn’t let it happen, some of which is his own fault for not taking care of himself like a professional. I might be a sucker, but I’m ready to believe a newly trim Williamson is in for a big year if he can stay on the court. Williamson has two All-Star nods in his career already, and I’m saying this will be the first time he makes All-NBA, essentially meaning he’s a top-15 player in the league this year. Zion’s paint scoring can be among the best in the world if he’s healthy, and some of his below-the-rim finishes are just astounding. It feels like this is Williamson’s last chance to prove he’s New Orleans’ franchise player. I still believe he’s got it in him.
2 out of 3 of the Nets, Jazz, and Wizards get screwed in the lottery
Tanking isn’t the same guarantee it once was after the NBA revamped the lottery odds ahead of the 2019 draft. The Mavericks jumped from the No. 11 slot to No. 1 pick, and the Spurs jumped from the No. 8 slot to the No. 2 pick in June’s lottery. In 2024, the Hawks jumped from the No. 10 slot to No. 1 overall. Being the absolute worst team in the league still leaves you with a 48% chance of getting the No. 5 pick in the draft. While landing a top draft pick is still the easiest route to building a contender, maximizing your odds no longer carries the same weight it used to under the old system. There are three teams who enter the year ready to push sim-to-end to get to the lottery: the Jazz, Nets, and Wizards. Given all the movement we’ve seen in the lottery in recent years, I’m guessing that two of them are miserable come draft night. The fact that the 2027 draft looks weak right now will only make for more pressure on lottery night. It’s bound to leave a lot of teams very unhappy.
