The NBA is in the middle of its greatest run of parity in league history. The league has been around since 1947, and this is the first time it’s ever seen seven straight years of unique champs. Since 2019, the Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, and Oklahoma City Thunder have each raised a title banner. Can this streak extend another year as the league enters the 2025-26 season?
The Oklahoma City Thunder could be on the precipice of a dynasty. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP in the middle of his prime at 27 years old, and co-stars Jalen Williams (24 years old) and Chet Holmgren (23 years old) are already really good and still getting better. The Thunder have an elite defense and some of the best role players in the league around their big three, not to mention a bundle of future draft picks. It’s totally possible the Thunder win three titles in the next five years. It’s also possible the Thunder are undone by injuries or cold shooting or a truly excellent opponent, and the parity streak has another chance to continue.
I think “the Thunder or the field?” is a fair way to frame the championship race entering the 2025-26 season. At the same time, no one could have anticipated a potential Indiana Pacers championship coming into last season, and they were one game and one devastating Tyrese Haliburton injury from potentially doing that in the last game of the season.
There are seven teams with real championship potentially entering the season in my eyes. Let’s rank them.
It takes a huge leap of faith to believe the Magic can go from .500 to championship material, but the Pacers (and 2023 Miami Heat before them) are proof that miracles can happen in the East. Part of it is general skepticism with the conference: the Cavs and Knicks are the obvious favorites, but after that, Orlando feels like it has the most upside of any other team. The Magic sustained long injuries to Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs last season, and all will be ready to rock at the start of training camp. Last season’s elite defense (No. 2 in the NBA) should carry over. The issue last year is that Orlando was an all-time bad shooting team relative to era, making only 31.8 percent their threes, by far the worst mark in the league. Desmond Bane — acquired from Memphis for four first-round picks — was brought in to change that, and he’s a hand-in-glove fit for exactly what the team needed. Bane is an elite shooter, a solid secondary ball handler, and a feisty defender who won’t compromise that unit’s excellence. This really comes down to if Banchero and Wagner can finally figure out how to make each other better. The results are been pretty grim so far, but I earnestly believe a lot of that can be chalked up to bad spacing. It’s always going to be a little wonky when your two best players aren’t reliable three-point shooters, but Banchero and Wagner are talented enough to make up for it. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Magic win the East, and because of that, they’re a fringe championship contender to me entering the season.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
There’s some understandable skepticism about the Wolves championship equity entering the season, coming in at No. 9 in the FanDuel odds. Minnesota lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency to Atlanta, Mike Conley Jr. is another year older, and the team will be more reliant on a pair of second-year players, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Rob Dillingham, who still have to prove themselves at the NBA level. I’m still buying this team as a potential champion for a few different reasons. After back-to-back Western Conference Finals runs, we know the Wolves have what it takes to win playoff series. The defense is elite with Rudy Gobert’s rim protection, Jaden McDaniels’ versatile defensive playmaking on the wing, and Edwards’ ability to defend at a high level while carrying a huge offensive burden. I’m still not super sold on the Gobert/Julius Randle tandem, but Randle’s more deliberate secondary scorer proved it can still be effective in the playoffs last season. Edwards is the real key here. He could be an MVP candidate with a great season, but what the Wolves really need to proof that he can be trusted to make smart decisions with the ball in his hands in high leverage situations. Everyone knows about Edwards’ nuclear rim attacking, but he also quietly became one of the league’s best three-point shooters last year. If Edwards can mix in a little bit of a mid-range game this season and continue growing as a decision-maker, the Wolves have a sustainable formula for success that could cash in with the right breaks.
The Knicks haven’t won an NBA championship since 1973, and you can make the case that this might be their best shot yet in the time since. The East is down, and the Knicks are firmly in the middle of their contention window. One of the league’s best starting lineups returns, and the bench of Mitchell Robinson, Miles McBride, and Guerschon Yabusele helps form a really strong top-8. Tom Thibodeau got this team to the conference finals, but that wasn’t good enough to save his job. Enter Mike Brown, who had a magic touch with the 2023 Sacramento Kings when he led that team to the league’s No. 1 offense. My concern with the Knicks is the same as it was last year: Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson are both negatives defensively, and that immediately compromises the Knicks’ defense against great opponents. New York has to rely on its offense to be even better after finishing No. 5 on that end last year. Most teams end up regretting the decision to fire Thibodeau, and that’s certainly on the table again. At the same time, if Brown is less dependent on Josh Hart and makes the offense a little more dynamic around Brunson, it could work out in their favor. Anything less than an NBA Finals appearance will be considered a disappointment for the Knicks. That’s totally fair given the talent level on this roster.
The Cavs looked like a juggernaut last year … until they reached the second round of the playoffs. After winning an astounding 64 games in the regular season and routing the Heat in the first round in historic fashion, everything came apart at the seams for the Cavs in round two against the Pacers. Darius Garland’s toe injury rendered him a shell of himself, and that was only one in a long list of injuries that troubled Cleveland in the series. Garland still may not be ready for training camp this season, and Max Strus is already out for an extended period with a Jones fracture. Losing Ty Jerome to the Grizzlies is a bummer, too. The most important thing for the Cavs is just being healthy for the playoffs, and there’s reason to believe everything could fall in line in Kenny Atkinson’s second season as head coach if that happens. The Cavs had the No. 1 offense in the league last year with Donovan Mitchell earning First-Team All-NBA honors and Evan Mobley being named Second-Team All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year. Mobley has the case as the league’s best non-Wembanyama defender, and he still has plenty of room to level up offensively as he enters his age-24 season. I believe there’s another level for Mobley to go up as a scorer and playmaker. There’s always going to be postseason skepticism with two guards as small as Garland and Mitchell playing heavy minutes, but they’re both so good offensively that they might be able to make up for it against a weakened field of conference contenders. The Cavs feel like the best East team entering the season, but if they fall short again, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s serious LeBron James buzz for Cleveland next offseason.
The Rockets’ quick ascent to the No. 2 seed in the West was one of the best stories of the regular season, but their first-round playoff exit to the Warriors showed this roster still needed some work. Enter Kevin Durant, one of the best pure shooters in league history, replacing in the inefficient scoring of Jalen Green on the perimeter. Durant can still get buckets at 37 years old, and he’s going to open up the floor significantly for Houston’s younger stars. It feels like Alperen Sengun is ready for an All-NBA turn after a dominant run at EuroBasket for Turkey. Sengun was an All-Star last season, turning into one of the most creative offensive players in the league, as well as an improved defender under head coach Ime Udoka. The Rockets have a few other candidates for breakout seasons: Amen Thompson should level up again in Year 3 after a standout sophomore season, Tari Eason could be ready to replace Dillon Brooks as the league’s go-to wing stopper, and Jabari Smith Jr. needs to show some improvement after getting a $120 million contract extension. There’s also Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 pick last year, who is finally ready to enter the rotation. The Rockets have great depth, what should be an elite defense, improved shooting, a solid head coach, and young stars who keep getting better. The Rockets have pulled off something close to a perfect rebuild in the wake of their James Harden trade, and they still have some premium assets coming in, like two unprotected Suns draft picks. This team is going to really good for a long time, and they might already be a title contender with KD in tow.
If Nikola Jokic is going to win a second championship in his career, this might be his best chance to do it. Jokic is still the greatest player in the world as he turns 31 years old in Feb., and after relying on younger players that didn’t come through the last two years, the Nuggets finally gave him an improved supporting cast this year. Denver took a big swing for Cameron Johnson in a deal that sent out Michael Porter Jr. and a 2031 unprotected first-round pick. Johnson is a big wing shooter who was one of the most efficient scorers in the league last year despite playing in a poor team context in Brooklyn. He needs to prove he can be durable (which has been an issue throughout his career), but he feels like a perfect fit playing off Jokic. The bench is better, too: Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valančiūnas give Denver some much needed veteran depth. Among the younger pieces, Christian Braun has quietly become one of the better glue guys in the league, and he’s playing for a new contract this year. Peyton Watson can still provide value as a defensive stopper, and Jalen Pickett will get a bigger chance at backup point guard duties this year. Ultimately, this still feels like it comes down to Jamal Murray’s ability to still be the second best player on a championship team. Murray’s play has dipped a bit the last two years, but at 28 years old, he shouldn’t be washed yet. Denver has a shot at the championship every year Jokic is in his prime, and it feels like they improved their odds at another ring quite a bit with their moves over the summer.
The Thunder have all the necessary pieces for a dynasty. They have the best guard in the league in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is fully entrenched in his prime. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren would be the franchise player on many other teams around the league; on the Thunder, they are ideal co-stars who bring elite defense, floor spacing, and supplemental scoring punch. Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein are among the best role players in the world, while Lu Dort has a claim to being the league’s best wing stopper. Add young depth like Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and rookie guard Nikola Topic, and the Thunder have an embarrassment of riches. A small market team like this shouldn’t should be able to sustain in the second apron era, but OKC is flush with future draft picks that can keep restocking the depth — or be cashed in for another star. The Thunder aren’t unbeatable: the playoffs showed that this is a very low volume three-point shooting team, and it’s hard to come back from behind when you live that way. There are times when it feels like there’s not enough shot creation with SGA out of the game, and Chet Holmgren didn’t look as great offensively as expected after his pelvic injury. The Thunder have some holes, but not many of them, and they have more avenues to fill their weaknesses in the present or future than any other team. If the Thunder can stay healthy, they’re a heavy favorite if not exactly unbeatable. This is the measuring stick for the rest of the NBA until further notice.
