Tanking for one player is a fool’s errand under the revamped NBA Draft lottery odds, where teams in the No. 10 and No. 11 starting spots respectively have jumped up to the first pick each of the last two years. Fortunately for the worst teams in the NBA entering the 2025-26 regular season, the next draft class has three prospects worthy of going No. 1 overall.
The 2026 NBA Draft might have the strongest top-three since 2003. Kansas’ Darryn Peterson, Duke’s Cameron Boozer, and BYU’s AJ Dybantsa all feel like they would be either in the conversation or the odds-on favorite for the No. 1 overall pick in any typical NBA Draft. The college season will inform us on how these players will eventually come off the board, but the fact that getting the third pick is just as good as getting No. 1 in a normal year makes this an especially tempting year to tank.
There are only three obvious tanking teams entering the 2025-26 regular season, but it won’t take long for a few more to join them because of injuries or poor play. Here’s how we see the 2026 draft tank race shaping up at the onset of the season.
The Kings are almost certainly staring at another rebuild, but they haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Domantas Sabonis is still here as Sacramento’s franchise player, and he’s flanked by Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, who are hilariously reunited after a failed tenure in Chicago. Sacramento signed Dennis Schroder over the summer to address their point guard problems, and while he’s a competent player, he doesn’t move the needle in the league the same way he does in FIBA play. Keegan Murray already has a torn thumb ligament that will cut into the first month of the regular season at minimum. I like Malik Monk and Keon Ellis a lot as role players, but it’s unclear how much the Kings actually value them. LaVine is truly one of the best shooters in the league and Sabonis is a workhorse inside, but I just can’t see this team putting together quality lineups on both ends of the floor. Hey, at least the Kings have their draft pick this year. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sabonis, LaVine, or both are on new teams a year from now.
6. Phoenix Suns … but they don’t have their pick
The Suns don’t control any of their first-round draft picks until 2032, and this year the Grizzlies are the team praying on their downfall. Memphis acquired Phoenix’s first-round pick as the top prize in the Desmond Bane trade, and there’s reason to believe it could pay off big. Devin Booker is still here, but the supporting cast around him has been dismantled following the failed Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal experiment. With both veteran stars in new homes, Booker’s best teammates this year are Dillon Brooks, Royce O’Neale, Mark Williams, and Jalen Green. It feels like this roster is 50 percent shooting guards and 50 percent hybrid big men, and the pieces don’t feel complementary on either side of the court. I don’t see how the Suns create efficient halfcourt offense without Booker on the floor, and while the defense might be passable, it’s not going in impose its will on anyone. The West is loaded, and the Suns are falling way behind. The best hope for Phoenix’s future is that Khaman Maluach turns into a stud (I had him ranked as the No. 3 player in the 2025 draft class), but that won’t happen in his rookie year. The Suns really should have just traded Booker this summer in an attempt to gain control of some future picks. This team feels more likely to be terrible than mediocre given the state of the West.
5. New Orleans Pelicans … but they don’t have their pick
Is a newly skinny Zion Williamson actually going to stay healthy this year? He better, otherwise a reckless trade made this summer by the new Pelicans’ front office could go down in infamy. New Orleans traded its unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks to move up in the 2025 draft for Derik Queen. Queen and No. 7 overall pick Jeremiah Fears form the future foundation of this franchise, but their present is still very much tied to Williamson’s availability. Zion played only 30 games last year and 29 games in 2022-23, but he did play 70 games in the 2023-24, so a mostly healthy season isn’t impossible. The Pelicans have two awesome role players in elite wing defender Herb Jones and lights-out shooter Trey Murphy III. They have Jordan Poole as a bucket-getter in the backcourt, Saddiq Bey to hit shots on the wing, and Kevon Looney to add a much-needed veteran presence on the inside. Yves Missi could have a breakout sophomore season as a super bouncy big man, and Fears will have his moments of speedy creation as a rookie. If they were in the East, the Pelicans could be a playoff team, but I’m not too optimistic about how this roster translates in the West barring a transcendent Zion season.
I want to believe the Hornets are ready to take a leap up the standings the same way the Pistons did a year ago, but my belief in them entering last season was horribly misplaced and I’m not about to make the same mistake. LaMelo Ball has missed 141 combined games over the last three seasons, and until he proves he can stay on the floor, Charlotte will be near the bottom of the league. Ball remains extremely talented and could emerge as one of the better guards in the world if he does stay healthy and pull back on some of his worst tendencies, but at this point it feels silly to bet on him. The Hornets really need Brandon Miller to have a big third season after injuries marred his sophomore year. I think No. 4 overall pick Kon Knueppel is going to be a great fit between Ball and Miller, but it’s hard to say how impactful he’ll really be as a rookie. The front court here is still really bad, with nothing resembling an NBA starting center on the roster, Miles Bridges still sadly part of this group, and last year’s rookie Tidjane Salaun looking far away from contributing. Hey, at least I like rookie center Ryan Kalkbrenner. If Ball turns in an All-Star season and Miller improves, the Hornets could be a play-in team in the East. Yay? More than likely, this team will pivot into a tank again.
The Nets were a little too good last season in their first year of a two-year tanking window. Brooklyn planned to maximize its odds for Cooper Flagg, but wound up with only the No. 8 overall pick, which they used on BYU guard Egor Demin. Demin was one of five first-round picks for the Nets this year, and all of them could see real playing time as Brooklyn fully devotes to the tank this year. There are some veteran names you know on this roster, from Michael Porter Jr. to Cam Thomas to Terance Mann to Nic Claxton, but none of them (outside of maybe Claxton) feel like they will part of the long-term future. Instead, this team will be turned over to the kids, and that’s going to produce a lot of losses no matter how good head coach Jordi Fernandez is with his schemes (he seems like one of the brightest young head coaches in the league). The Nets don’t control their 2027 first-round pick with the Rockets’ owning swap rights, so they really need one of Boozer, Peterson, or Dybantsa in the draft followed by a free agent spending spree with the league’s most available cap space. This will be a sim-to-end year in every sense.
The Jazz still haven’t had any lottery luck in the three years since trading Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the same summer. Utah grabbed the best prospect of its rebuild, Ace Bailey, with the No. 5 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, but they’re hoping for an even bigger fish this year. The young players on this roster are going to get a ton of rope to play, and that’s probably going to produce a lot of losses in the loaded West. Just about no one expects Lauri Markkanen to finish the year here, but his max contract could scare off some potential suitors. While Markkanen and center Walker Kessler form a solid front line, the rest of this roster is full of inexperienced one-way players. Brice Sensabaugh will get buckets, Isaiah Collier can push the pace and whip out assists, and Kyle Filipowski can play all over the floor as a young big, but it’s hard to expect any of them to drive winning. Bailey’s development will be fun to track after a strong preseason, and he’s lucky to have head coach Will Hardy (another one of the brightest young coaches in the league) putting him in the best position to succeed. I predict a Markkanen trade by the deadline (put me down for Detroit), and a hard tank in the second half.
The Wizards have won 33 games combined over the last two years, but still don’t have anything resembling a franchise player in their growing collection of prospects. Washington potentially added some nice role players over the last couple drafts, but they still need the lead engine to that will help everyone else slot into more appropriate roles. Alex Sarr, 2024’s No. 2 overall pick, is the most interesting long-term piece here as a mobile 7-footer, but he’s held back by his soft interior finishing and lack of a veteran point guard to set him up. Tre Johnson could be Flagg’s biggest competition for Rookie of the Year as a deadly off-ball shooter, but his game isn’t exactly well-rounded yet. CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton are the veteran mentors here, but neither is really moving the needle these days. Barring a big leap from one of the young guys — including Bilal Coulibaly, Bub Carrington, Cam Whitmore, and Kyshawn George — this team is going to be road kill all season long. No team needs a top-3 pick more than Washington entering this season, and I fully expect them to be the worst team in the league.
Honorable mention: Sixers, Grizzlies, Celtics, Pacers, Bulls, Blazers, Spurs
