You don’t need to be a gambler to find value in looking at the win total lines set by the sportsbooks ahead of a new NBA season. The over/unders for each team are a good way to level expectations and frame the championship chase. Eventually, it helps inform us which teams are overachieving and underachieving.
The sportsbooks expect the Oklahoma City Thunder to be the best team in the NBA during the 2025-26 regular season. Just about every expert you can find will agree. They expect the Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Brooklyn Nets to be the three worst teams in the league. If any other team breaks into the bottom-three, it’s going to be considered an upset. While most of these lines follow the conventional wisdom, there’s still plenty of room for randomness over a full 82-game season.
Here are seven “locks” for NBA over/under win totals this season. I highly recommend not putting actual money on my picks, because I’ve been doing this long enough to know that I am often wrong.
Oklahoma City Thunder over 62.5 wins
The Thunder won 68 games last year, and that was with Chet Holmgren missing 50 games, Isaiah Hartenstein missing 25 games, and Alex Caruso missing 28 games. The Thunder are a year older and wiser now, and they have to keep their edge after their championship run because they know they’re getting everyone else’s best shot. The West is loaded again, sure, but the Thunder feel a cut above the rest. Holmgren and Jalen Williams are still improving and are already great players. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be a leading MVP contender again, and both the defense and the depth look every bit as good as they were last year. Even Mark Daignault can continue to improve as one of the league’s youngest head coaches. A 70-win season is absolutely possible for this Thunder team if they can maintain their defensive intensity and get better injury luck.
Orlando Magic over 51.5 wins
The Magic won 41 games a year ago despite long injuries to their three best players and one of the ugliest offenses you will ever see from a competitive team. Orlando made an all-in trade this offseason by sending four first-round picks to Memphis for Desmond Bane, a move that signaled the franchise is ready to win behind the Paolo Banchero-Franz Wagner tandem. Bane addresses the Magic’s biggest problem with his knockdown three-point shooting. Orlando needs the help after finishing dead-last in three-point percentage last year at a ghastly 31.8 percent as a team. Orlando already had the league’s No. 2 defense last season, and Bane’s arrival will not compromise that. To this point, Banchero and Wagner haven’t been able to make each other better sharing the floor, but I’m optimistic that can change with better spacing. Jalen Suggs needs to get healthy and stay healthy (he still hasn’t been cleared to return after knee surgery), but if that happens the four-man pairing between Banchero, Wagner, Suggs, and Bane is as good as any in the East. I like the Magic as a darkhorse Eastern Conference champion, and I like them winning at least 52 regular season games.
Washington Wizards under 21.5 wins
The Wizards have been blatantly tanking for two seasons, but they still don’t have anything resembling a franchise star to show for it. They need to make the tank count this year with three absolute stud prospects sitting at the top of the 2026 NBA Draft. Everything about Washington’s future will change if they can land one of Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Cameron Boozer (Duke), or AJ Dybantsa, and the front office will be smart enough to prioritize its lottery odds near the end of the season. Washington doesn’t have to try to lose this year with an extremely young roster devoid of anything resembling an NBA primary option. I like this young core decent enough, and will be excited to see if Alex Sarr can improve his two-point finishing this year. Still, the Wizards will be really bad on both ends of the floor, and still don’t have a real point guard on the roster. This team won fewer than 20 games each of the last two seasons, so I’m surprised this is so high with an even better draft class coming.
Chicago Bulls over 32.5 wins
The Bulls are the most mediocre team in the NBA, winning 39, 40, and 39 games each of the last three years. Chicago doesn’t tank, and instead has a history of going on late seasons runs when their opponents are either tanking or resting for the playoffs. Last year, that meant a 15-5 closing stretch before getting pounded by a similarly mid Heat team in the play-in tournament. The Bulls’ starting lineup looks uninspiring again, but they’re much deeper than most teams in the play-in tier. Chicago’s bench with Tre Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, Zach Collins, and Patrick Williams brings plenty of experience and diverse skill sets to help complement the first unit. The Bulls’ high-tempo style is also tough to matchup against, especially in the dog days of an 82-game regular season. Some nights, opponents just won’t want to run with them, and the Bulls can wiggle their way into wins they weren’t supposed to get. Add in that we already know the Bulls refuse to prioritize their lottery position late in the year, and this looks like another 38 or 39 win team, which cashes the over with ease.
Golden State Warriors over 45.5
After trading for Jimmy Butler at the deadline last season, the Warriors went 23-7 with him in the lineup and posted the league’s No. 3 net-rating to finish the regular season. Golden State’s run eventually ended when Stephen Curry got hurt in the second round of the playoffs, but there’s reason to be optimistic that last year’s closing kick wasn’t a fluke. Curry remains one of the game’s most terrifying covers even as he turns 38 years old before the playoffs. Butler’s skill set is a wonderful complement to Steph’s, providing bully-ball interior scoring, foul drawing, and an ability to generate takeaways on defense. The Warriors’ only real addition this summer was Al Hoford, somehow the oldest Millennial on a team full of elder Millennials. If Horford can stave off Father Time for another year, his floor spacing, passing, and ability to guard in space will be a perfect fit for Steve Kerr’s system. Golden State’s young guys (Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga) are another year older, and maybe this is the year role players like De’Anthony Melton actually stay healthy. This really all comes down to the health of Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green, but if they can be regularly available, the Warriors should compete in the second or third tier of West with at least 46 wins.
Memphis Grizzlies under 40.5 wins
The Grizzlies feel like a team in transition, and they’re already starting the year with a ton of injuries. Zach Edey is recovering from ankle surgery, Jaren Jackson Jr. is on the mend from turf toe, and Ja Morant is already dealing with an ankle sprain. The Grizzlies traded Desmond Bane for a haul of draft picks over the summer, and they were only an average three-point shooting team even with him as their top sniper. I have a ton of respect for the Grizzlies’ front office because of the work they do in the draft, and it’s definitely possible they can uncover another diamond in the rough or two to fortify the rotation. It’s also a bit scary that the Grizzlies don’t need to tank to get a high draft pick this year, because they own the Suns’ pick from the Bane trade. Still, life in the Western Conference is brutal, the injuries are concerning, and I’m skeptical that Morant is still on a superstar path. Memphis still won 48 games last year despite a second half free-fall, but they looked so bad to close the season, and this roster feels weaker than that one. At least for this season, I’m a Grizzlies skeptic.
New York Knicks over 53.5 wins
The East is down, and the Knicks are in the middle of their purported championship window. New York spent the offseason strengthening its bench and replacing its head coach by canning Tom Thibodeau for Mike Brown. Thibodeau’s “Every Game 7 is Game 7” mantra is usually great for regular season wins, and it’s worth noting New York was under 53.5 wins in each of the last two seasons. Brown should make the offense more dynamic, but this was already the league’s No. 5 offense last year. The defense is more concerning, but starting Mitchell Robinson instead of Josh Hart should help some. I’m definitely still worried that Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns just can’t coexist defensively, but that’s more of an issue for the playoffs than the regular season. This feels more like a vote of no-confidence in the East than faith in the Knicks, but 55 wins should be attainable for a roster this talented either way.
