The men’s college basketball season is a sprint, not a marathon. No team plays more than 40 games including the postseason, and that’s all that’s needed for a national champion to be crowned. The offseason is starting to feel the same way: most of the transfer portal action happened before the last season was actually over, and the player movement has been settled for a while now save for some late arrivers from outside the country.
The college hoops offseason is so long that it’s particularly instructive to look back at remembering everything that happened. It has me thinking about which teams actually got since last season.
Michigan and St. John’s were each among the biggest winners over the transfer portal. It’s still fair to wonder how much those teams actually improved: the Johnnies were a wrecking ball last year until their early NCAA tournament collapse, while Michigan had a first-round pick lead them to a Big Ten tournament championship and a Sweet 16 bid. Those programs both did very well to restock their rosters with talent, but we’ll see if they are actually better than last year. Florida loaded up this offseason too by retaining several key players and adding more talent in the transfer portal, but it’s hard to think the Gators will be better than last year’s national title team.
There are six teams that will be better in 2025-26 than they were in 24-25, plus two more teams who didn’t do enough.
Kansas Jayhawks
Last year’s finish: 21-13, first-round NCAA tournament exit | This year’s finish: Round of 32 and beyond
The Jayhawks fell from preseason No. 1 to a Big 12 also-ran last season in one of the worst campaigns of Bill Self’s legendary career. The core from that roster — Hunter Dickinson (finally!), Dajuan Harris, KJ Adams, Zeke Mayo — all graduated. This is Darryn Peterson’s team now. Peterson is one of the best NBA guard prospects of the last 20 years, a long, physical, and explosive primary initiator blessed with wildly good shot-making, body control, and defensive intensity. Peterson has a chance to go No. 1 in a stacked 2026 NBA Draft, and he has a chance to be the best guard in college basketball as a freshman. Kansas also returns Flory Bidunga, a bouncy rim protector/lob catcher at center who showed some major promise last year. Bidunga’s fit in this year’s front court will be much better than it was last season, and he could form a nasty pick-and-roll connection with Peterson. The rest of the supporting cast has a few more question marks than you’d typically expect from a program like Kansas: the transfer portal haul includes Loyola-Chicago shooter Jayden Dawson, Illini wing Tre White, and St. Bonaventure guard Melvin Council Jr. The return of former top recruit Elmark Jackson in the backcourt is intriguing, too. This team is very much built to be the Darryn Peterson show, and I’m buying all the stock in both his present and future.
NC State Wolfpack
Last year’s finish: 12-19, missed the postseason | This year’s predicted finish: Round of 32 and beyond
Two years ago, NC State made one of the most unlikely Final Four runs ever. Last year, it all fell apart, and it cost head coach Kevin Keatts his job. The Wolfpack took a chance on the formerly disgraced Will Wade after he rebuilt his reputation at McNeese, and he immediately put together a roster worthy of competing in the ACC and beyond. NC State got an experienced guard in Tre Holloman from Michigan State, and a high upside combo forward in Terrance Arceneaux from Houston. Wade’s former McNeese players Alyn Breed and Quadir Copeland are along for the ride, too. It also retained Paul McNeil, the swiss army knife who broke out late in his freshman season and should get NBA looks as a sophomore. The big prize was the latest addition: Darrion Williams, NCAA tournament for Texas Tech last season, picked NC State over Kansas and others when he opted against entering the NBA. NC State paid big money for this roster, and the expectation will be an NCAA tournament trip in Wade’s first year. Williams has a chance to be a top-10 player in the country this season, and if that happens the supporting cast should be good enough to make this one of the better teams in the ACC after Duke and Louisville.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Last year’s finish: 17-16, missed the postseason | This year’s predicted finish: Round of 32 and beyond
The Fran McCaffery era is over at Iowa after 15 seasons, and they brought in one of the hottest young coaches in America to replace him. Ben McCollum only needed one season at Drake to prove he was the goods after an illustrious run in DII, and he brought five of his former players with him from Des Moines to Iowa City. Point guard Bennett Stirtz is the big name, and he should be one of the best guards in America this season. Stirtz was sensational at Drake as a big guard who can drive and score and create turnovers defensively. I would have had a first-round grade on him if he entered the 2025 draft, and I think he has a chance to be a lottery pick in 2026. It’s lofty praise for a senior, but I think Stirtz is that good. Iowa also pulled in another gem in the transfer portal in 6’8 Spanish stretch four Alvaro Folgueiras, who had a strong freshman season at Robert Morris. Add in former Kansas State shooter Brenden Hausen, and the Hawkeyes have the talent to get back into the Big Dance.
Louisville Cardinals
Last year’s finish: 27-8, first-round loss in NCAA tournament | This year’s predicted finish: Elite Eight and beyond
Louisville had a bounce-back season for the ages last year in Pat Kelsey’s first season as head coach. Now the Cards are ready to take another step. Louisville’s first big strike came in traditional recruiting, where it landed five-star stud point guard Mikel Brown Jr. Brown isn’t in the 2026 draft’s ‘big three,’ but he’ll have a chance to be a top-5 pick and one of the most electric guards in college hoops this year. Brown is old for his grade which will be beneficial to Louisville, and he’s coming off a phenomenal run at the FIBA U19 World Cup where he legitimately outshined AJ Dybantsa. Brown will be at the controls of a nasty perimeter attack after Louisville pulled a great class out of the transfer portal. Adrian Wooley is a dynamic shot-creating off-guard with plus shooting ability who enters the program after being the country’s best mid-major freshman last year at Kennesaw State. Ryan Conwell was highly-sought after as a bucket-getting wing following a nice season at Xavier. Isaac McKneely is a knockdown shooter coming over from Virginia. The bigs are more of a question mark, but this Cards team has a wild amount of firepower. A second weekend trip to the NCAA tournament should be the minimum expectation this year.
Kentucky Wildcats
Last year’s finish: 24-12, Sweet 16 loss | This year’s predicted finish: Elite Eight and beyond
Mark Pope’s debut year was a smash success at Kentucky. The Wildcats were competitive all season with a completely new team built from the transfer portal, and reached the Sweet 16 without any real NBA talent (Koby Brea, the No. 41 overall pick, was their highest drafted player). Pope revamped the roster again this offseason while retaining major contributors SG Otega Oweh and big man Brandon Garrison. The portal haul was headlined by versatile big man Jayden Quaintance and sweet-shooting forward Kam Williams, and also includes Florida combo guard Denzel Aberdee, and Alabama forward Mouhamed Dioubate, and Pitt guard Jaland Lowe. Kentucky is back to bringing in five-star freshmen as well, with guard Jasper Johnson and big man Malachi Moreno talented enough to make an instant impact. Kentucky reportedly spent $20 million on this roster, and I think they got their money’s worth. Pope is a master with the X’s and O’s, and he’s got a deep roster with plenty of high-end talent to scheme up this season. This team is good enough to win it all.
UCLA Bruins
Michigan Wolverines
Last year’s finish: 27-10, Sweet 16 loss | This year’s predicted finish: Elite Eight and beyond
I debate a few teams in this spot — UCLA, UConn, BYU — but ultimately landed on the Wolverines improving from what was a very good season last year. It’s not easy to replace players like Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, but Michigan arguably struck it even bigger in the transfer portal this year, giving it a roster that can compete with any in the Big Ten. Yaxel Lendeborg was the top overall player in the transfer portal in my eyes (let’s say tied with Stirtz), and he should come in and kick ass on both ends of the floor. Lendeborg is a mobile 6’9 big man who can do a little bit of everything: protect the rim, facilitate to teammates, score inside, and and even shoot a little bit. I’m tempted to say he’s the best big in the country entering the season. Michigan also pulled in Illini big man Morez Johnson, North Carolina guard Eliot Cadeau, and UCLA big Aday Mara while retaining wings Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle. Five-star freshman guard Trey McKenney can add some firepower, too. Michigan set a high bar for itself to clear, but I think it can get there.
2 men’s college basketball teams who got worse over the offseason
Auburn Tigers
Last year’s finish: Final Four loss
Auburn is still going to be very good this year. Getting back Tahaad Pettiford was arguably the biggest retention win of the offseason for any team, and has some new running mates with former UCF wing Keshawn Hall, plus two talented up-transfers in former DII stud Elyjah Freeman and JUCO star Abdul Bashir. That’s the foundation for an NCAA tournament team, but I doubt it’s going to be Final Four good like last season. It’s simply impossible to replace a player like Johni Broome after he was a top-2 player in America last year alongside Cooper Flagg. Chad Baker-Mazara (off to USC) and Dylan Cardwell (now on a two-way with the Sacramento Kings) were massive contributors as well. Bruce Pearl is a good coach and should keep this program competitive, but last year’s Final Four team was special, and this club just can’t measure up.
Maryland Terrapins
Last year’s finish: Sweet 16 loss
Kevin Willard’s ‘Crab 5’ made Maryland basketball cool again. Now he’s off to coach Villanova, while new head coach Buzz Williams is scrambling to keep the momentum going. Williams brought in nine players in the transfer portal, including four of his former Texas A&M guys. It should be a competitive roster in the Big Ten, but it’s not making up for all the talent this team lost. The Terrapins lost Derik Queen to the New Orleans Pelicans as a lottery pick, Rodney Rice to USC, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie to Tennessee, and Julian Reese to the Los Angeles Lakers on a two-way. Maryland’s incoming roster doesn’t have much shooting, and I’m struggling to see how they create efficient offense. Williams has been a good coach for a long time, but it feels like he needs to modernize his approach to keep up with his contemporaries. The ‘Crab 5’ was magic, and this roster looks just okay.
