5 upset picks for 2025 men’s NCAA tournament’s first round

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is filled with potential upsets involving double-digit seeds.

Thanks to some seeding disparities with the committee and a lot of talented regular-season champions also earning auto bids from conference tournament wins, there’s plenty of intriguing matchups when it comes to potential upsets.

These five matchups are games to watch when it comes to picking a double digit seed to make a move. An upset for this preview is an 11 seed or larger winning a first-round game.

No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson, 2:15 p.m., Thursday

Afternoon games on Thursday can bring drama early in the tournament and this 5/12 matchup could be the tournament’s first on upset watch.

McNeese returns to the NCAA Tournament following last season’s first-round loss to Gonzaga. The Cowboys and head coach Will Wade return talent and experience with six players averaging close to double figures this season.

McNeese regularly features unique players as leading scorer, with six different players doing so over the last eight games.

Defensively, the Cowboys are top 20 in the country in turnover rate (18th) and a respectable 39th (47.5) in effective field goal defense. Both teams rate in the top 30 in the country in experience, making for one of the more veteran-laden games of the first round.

The offensive glass is a stat to watch with both teams. McNeese hits the offensive glass hard (No. 42 offensive rebound percentage) and Clemson can be shaky clearing the glass (No. 191 defensive rebound rate). On the other side of the ball, Clemson’s big frontline is 67th in offensive rebound rate while McNeese is 259th on the defensive glass.

No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU, 3:05 p.m., Thursday

This game features two teams playing extremely well — and rated close together on KenPom. BYU is No. 24 and VCU is No. 30 before the tournament .

VCU steamrolled the Atlantic 10 this season with only two losses coming since the start of 2025. BYU won nine straight games before losing to Houston in the Big 12 title game.

In trademark VCU fashion, the Rams blitz opponents defensively and rate No. 1 in opponent effective field goal percentage and No. 31 in turnover rate. A top 25 defense gives VCU a shot against a potent BYU offense that can put up points in a hurry.

The Cougars need to limit turnovers (No. 207 in turnover percentage) but are a top-flight offense with shooters all over the floor for Egor Demin to find. Demin has struggled against pressure at times this season and faces a strong Rams backcourt that includes Max Shulga, Joe Bamisile, Zeb Jackson and Phillip Russell.

The Rams could use a spike to average three-point shooting (33.5 percent) but are No. 12 in the country in offensive rebound rate.

Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri, 6:35 p.m. Thursday

Struggling Missouri battles Missouri Valley Conference winner Drake in the early part of Thursday evening.

Missouri lost five of its last seven games in a sluggish end to the season. The Tigers consistently allowed opponents to score more than 90 points during that stretch, putting significant pressure on the team’s top-five offense to match points.

The Bulldogs won 18 of 19 games to close the season, losing only to Bradley. Guard Bennett Stirtz has been a revelation moving from Division II to Drake this season, putting up 19.1 points, 5.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game.

Keep an eye on pace in this one as Drake plays the No. 364 tempo in the country while the Tigers have been involved in many recent track meets.

No. 12 UC San Diego vs. No. 5 Michigan, 9:00 p.m. Thursday

Another fascinating 5/12 matchup sees analytical darling UC San Diego battle Big Ten tournament champion Michigan.

The Tritons won 30 games during an impressive season winning the Big West. Star senior Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is a unique scorer who leads a UC San Diego offense 32nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage (55.4 percent). Tait-Jones is third in the country in fouls drawn (8) per game and will need to be constantly checked by Michigan’s defense.

Turnovers will be a big factor in the outcome. Top ten in the country in turnover percentage on offense (No. 7) and defense (No. 2), UC San Diego minimizes turnovers offensively and forces turnovers on defense.

That’s concerning for a Michigan offense 328nd in turnover percentage (19.8 percent). The Wolverines need to hold on to the ball and use a notable size advantage inside against the Tritons.

Can UC San Diego’s smaller lineups — featuring no player over 6-foot-8 — contain the Wolverine frontcourt of 7-footers Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf?

Photo by David Becker/Getty Images

No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis, 1:00 p.m. Friday

This upset will be picked frequently with Colorado State actually favored to win in most places. The Rams have won 10 straight games and played their way into the Field of 68 by winning the Mountain West conference tournament.

One of the hottest teams in the field, Colorado State has a profile stronger than most 12 seeds. The Rams sport a top-50 offense (No. 43) and defense (No. 49) per KenPom and have a legitimate star in senior Nique Clifford.

Putting up monster numbers down the stretch, Clifford (19.0 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 4.4 apg this season) ranks No. 6 on KenPom’s Player of the Year standings entering the NCAA Tournament.

More than just Clifford, Colorado State was 23rd in the nation in effective field goal percentage (55.8 percent) during the season, regularly taking quality shots from capable players.

Memphis is a strong No. 5 seed. The Tigers beat Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss during non-conference play. Memphis also hasn’t played an NCAA Tournament team since December thanks to another weak conference slate in the American.

Shaky on offense at times this season, high turnovers (No. 306 in turnover rate) makes Memphis susceptible to close games if perimeter shots aren’t falling. Colorado State also has to slow down explosive scoring guard PJ Haggerty, who is third in the nation in points per game at 21.8 this season.