Among all the storylines in the NFL entering the 2024 season, one of the most interesting is the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. While the parity in the NFL can be good at the top of the league, at the bottom it creates a logjam of teams who might not be good enough to get anywhere near the playoffs. The problem is, you can realistically see some of those teams near the bottom making a playoff run towards the end of the season and shock a lot of people.
Some of them.
Other teams near the bottom are in a freefall towards to the top of the draft before the season even begins. Those teams have one eye on the season and another on the 2025 draft class. These five teams will be some of the worst teams in the NFL, and have a shot at landing the top pick in 2025.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders confuse me. While I want to believe in their defense (new free agent addition Christian Wilkins and Maxx Crosby is a frightening duo, and CB Jack Jones could be a very fun development on the outside), their offense leaves a lot to be desired at the most important position in sports. Gardner Minshew was named the starter, which feels like putting a school bus driver behind the wheel of a muscle car. I like the complementary styles of WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, and rookie TE Brock Bowers can line up any and everywhere on offense, but all of it is moot if the QB can’t hit anyone. Minshew gets a reputation of being a safe hand who won’t turn the ball over, but his 42% Success Rate per Sumer Sports puts him in the hallowed range of QBs like Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones. His backup, Aidan O’Connell, had a worse success rate than him. That’s not a conducive plan for success in Las Vegas, no matter how good the supporting cast of characters is. Add in an offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy who might not be that great at his job, and we got a mixture for catapulting towards the top pick in the draft.
New York Giants
Oh boy, where do I begin? The Giants’ offensively are a mixture of poor offensive line play, redundant receiving core and a QB who turns into a pumpkin. Up front, the Giants have gone through multiple offensive line coaches, but still haven’t put together a unit that can consistently protect QB Daniel Jones or create any push in the run game. On the rare occasion that Jones does have time to throw the ball, he wasn’t playing as well as his contract should indicate. His -1.78 total EPA on all unpressured passes put him 39th out of 42 QBs with a minimum of 100 passes last year, according to Sports Information Solutions. He doesn’t push the ball vertically, and his interception rate was among the highest in the NFL on those unpressured passes. We haven’t even gone on to the receivers yet. Outside of rookie wideout Malik Nabers, it’s a group that is both unspectacular and redundant. Jalin Hyatt works better off a free release and in the slot. Darius Slayton is fine as an outside receiver, but is much better in the slot. Wan’Dale Robinson is 5’8—definitely not an outside receiver. So to recap, there’s a poor OL, a gun-shy QB who is also coming off an ACL injury, and a receiver room filled with slot guys.
We’ll see you in April.
Carolina Panthers
While I believe in the long term goal of the Panthers and think they might improve on last year, it’s still hard for me to see them doing anything in the NFC this year. After trading EDGE Brian Burns, I seriously worry about their ability to generate any pressure at all. DT Derrick Brown is a growing star, but on the edge Jadeveon Clowney is more of a guy who wins on stunts and manufactured pressures rather than by himself. Behind him, there’s K’Lavon Chaisson, DJ Johnson and Eku Leota. Good luck. Offensively, they should be better, but I still have questions about their consistency at receiver. Wideout Diontae Johnson should be a nice addition, but I’m worried about their consistency in other spots. Adam Thielen is going to be 34 years old, and rookie Xavier Legette might have more of a limited route tree to begin. While the offense can grow, I don’t think the defense is going to be good enough for them to win many games.
New England Patriots
Oh boy.
OH MAN.
Let me start off by saying the Patriots might have one of the best defenses in the league. Even after trading EDGE Matthew Judon and not having DT Christian Barmore due to a blood clot, I believe their defense can still be good. The offense … yeah let’s talk. The offensive line is poor, and their inability to pass protect is going to seriously hamper the offense. The wide receiver room is coming along slowly, especially with rookie wideouts Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker still earning their reps with the ones. Jacoby Brissett is going to start the season under center, but it’s only a matter of time before rookie QB Drake Maye steps in. However, the season might be long gone before then, and the Pats might be looking to the 2025 draft to help out their rookie QB.
Washington Commanders
Let me start off by saying I think the Commanders have a vision in place for what this team wants to be, both offensively and defensively. The problem is I don’t think that vision is very good right now. The offensive line still has a lot of question marks, especially at left tackle if rookie Brandon Coleman is set to start. There’s a logjam in the middle of the OL, and if Andrew Wylie is still set to start, I don’t know how long they can keep rookie QB Jayden Daniels upright. Oh, they also employ Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator. So there’s that.
Defensively, I think their secondary is going to struggle a lot. CB Emmanuel Forbes was rough as a rookie, and Michael Davis seems more like a stopgap at the other CB spot. Up front, they’ll likely be able to generate pressure via Dan Quinn, but having to play Jamin Davis at EDGE to try and make something out of him seems like a problem. As much as I want to believe in this team, I just can’t.
