We’re drawing closer to the beginning of the 2025 NFL regular season, and with it hope springs eternal. This is the magical time where the majority of fanbases in football have some form of hope. Aspirations for deep playoff runs and potential Vince Lombardi trophies for some, incremental improvement for others — simply hoping their middling team can notch a few extra wins to show they’re headed in the right direction.
It’s still early enough in the process to look ahead to the NFL futures for the 2025 season, and more particularly at win totals. There are some pretty wild lines available on Fanduel, and today we’re specifically looking at the teams we think will outperform what the gambling community is banking on. These are the win total over bets you should take a long look at.
Carolina Panthers: Over 6.5 wins (-130)
The break point for Carolina right now is being slightly better than 2024 season total, and this feels like easy money. It’s not like anyone is suggesting the Panthers will be world beaters this season, but from a football perspective they’re much improved.
Bryce Young is developing in the NFL and has a solid offensive line in front of him, a good running back in Chuba Hubbard, and revamped weapons with Tetairoa McMillan being added to the mix. Young in particular is the ace in the hole to make this work, because he closed out the 2024 season with a run that put him among the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Pair these factors with the reality that Carolina has a soft schedule and the Panthers look every bit of a seven or eight win team at least in the upcoming season. The out of conference opponents this team is set to face is full of 50/50 games that could go either way, including the Jaguars, Patriots, Cardinals, and Jets — coupled with the fact they play in the NFC South, which boasts some fairly weak teams.
The idea they can’t win six games is too far fetched.
Dallas Cowboys: Over 7.5 wins (-125)
There is no question the offseason has been shambolic in Dallas, but it’s pretty ridiculous to take that and translate it into a five win season. The core issue with the ‘Boys has been the same every year for over a decade: They underperform the talent on their roster. That could very well be true again in 2025, but there’s little reason to believe there will be a further backslide away from their 7-10 record a year ago.
Obviously the team is in trouble if Micah Parsons ends up leaving, but it’s difficult to imagine that actually happening when the rubber meets the road. There’s a lot of preening happening right now to try and gain an upper hand in these contract negotiations, but when the rubber meets the road it seems the sides will come together.
Simply put: An underperforming Cowboys team is still an eight win team.
Las Vegas Raiders: Over 6.5 wins (-120)
It might be easier to agree with this if it was a year ago and we were looking at the Raiders heading out with Gardner Minshew as starting QB. Simply having Geno Smith changes the calculus of this team enough that it seems impossible they’ll simply match their win total from a year ago.
The Raiders just couldn’t score at all in 2024. They averaged 19.2 points-per-game, which was 29th in the NFL — and a large part of this was lacking a running back who could punch it in. Ashton Jeanty is a huge upgrade at the position, and should be able to make a big improvement there as well. Couple all this with an underrated defense that still has Maxx Crosby and the idea they’ll simply repeat history seems far fetched.
New York Giants: Over 5.5 wins
Picking the Giants as an over here isn’t a case of getting swept up in the Jaxson Dart hype, but more an appreciation for the fact this team has better talent than it’s shown in recent years.
There’s an outside chance the G-Men boast one of the league’s most dangerous edge rushing packages with Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, and the option to spell in Kayvon Thibodeaux. That alone is a wrecking ball of a unit, with the potential to change games. The team also has a really solid stable of good-enough quarterbacks with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston ahead of Dart on the depth chart — both of whom can generate offense out of Malik Nabers.
I don’t think the Giants will be vastly better than a five win team, but I do see them being a six or seven win team this season. That would beat the over on this one.
