NHL free agency is still ongoing, but we’ve definitely reached a cooling off period. The biggest names have signed, leaving only potential trades and depth players on the market.
It’s a fascinating time in hockey right now. Everyone sees the blueprint the Florida Panthers have run to win back-to-back Stanley Cups, but it’s unclear how they can emulate that depth and toughness inside their organizations. For teams in the Atlantic this is double-important, knowing they’ll see the champs multiple times in a year.
Let’s take a spin around the NHL to check out the winners and losers from free agency this year.
Winner: Carolina Hurricanes
The Eastern Conference bridesmaids had some money to spend in this free agency after acquiring, then trading Mikko Rantanen during last season, and they made it count. Landing No. 2 overall free agent Nikolaj Ehlers is a profound boost to the Canes’ offensive potential, and a player who seems tailor made for Rod Brind’Amour’s system.
It’s unclear whether Carolina will utilize Ehlers on a top line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, or use him to boost their often-lacking second line, but that’s immaterial. Just getting Ehlers is a huge boost, and he has the potential with more minutes to be the difference maker the Hurricanes needed on the wing.
Acquiring defenseman K’Andre Miller via trade and inking him to an eight year extension is part of this free agency too, and it’s an absolutely fascinating move. Miller’s raw ability has never been in question. There are times where he was the best player on the ice for the Rangers, and easily one of the best skating defensemen in hockey, then others where he disappeared. Carolina is banking on two things with Miller:
- That they can develop young players better than the Rangers can
- The veteran influence of players like Jaccob Slavin and Shayne Gostisbehere can unlock Miller’s potential
To be honest, this seems like a pretty safe gamble. Carolina didn’t give up a monumental amount of draft capital to get a deal done for a 25-year-old former 1st round pick, and if they can harness his potential this will be a momentous deal.
Round all this out with re-signing Logan Stankoven to an eight year contract and this was a serious way for Carolina to get better right now, and solidify their future. GM Eric Tulsky worked wizardry with these moves, none of which overpaid players.
Loser: Winnipeg Jets
We always knew this was going to be a brutal free agency for the Jets. The No. 1 regular season team out of the West last year was absolutely raided in free agency with their backs up against the salary cap.
Three of Winnipeg’s most important forwards are now gone in Nikolaj Ehlers, Mason Appleton and Brandon Tanev — and the best the Jets could really manage was bringing in a bunch of caretakers on one year contracts. While the team does now have $19M in open cap space, there’s nobody really left to spend it on, meaning this team could be buyers on the trade market, but it’s unclear right now if there’s anyone worth targeting.
Kudos to the Jets for not freaking out during this process and drastically overspending on talent. The truth is: Winnipeg is not a hot destination for free agents to sign, and they will need to build from within to compete. There are smart heads in that front office that can make it happen, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Jets are infinitely worse right now than they were at the end of the season.
Winner: Las Vegas Golden Knights
I’m not a big Mitch Marner fan. Truth be told, not a lot of people who have seen Marner play regularly are. Statistically he’s a guy who puts points up in bunches, but has a tendency to disappear when games are important. To that end I’m not entirely sure it makes the Knights a drastically better playoff team, but this was important for other reasons.
The Knights have to keep Jack Eichel next year. A top-3 center in the NHL, Eichel is only getting better in his prime after registering a career-high 94 points last season. In order to keep Eichel happy the team needed to show it was willing to spend and get better, and throwing Marner on the right wing is a big move to do it.
Even if Marner is overrated, and even if Vegas ended up overpaying him — none of that matters if he’s the grease that makes Eichel re-sign. I love the move from that angle, and it probably ensures Vegas become the big dogs in the west, beating back the threat the Dallas Stars were making, and Edmonton praying that Connor McDavid will stay.
Losers: Toronto Maple Leafs
Even with the reality of losing Marner there was prevailing hope in Toronto that the Leafs would find a way to lure valuable players north. All those hopes are dashed.
Brad Marchand and Aaron Ekblad both re-signed with Florida, two of the Leafs’ hopeful targets — and in their place the team got … Benoit-Olivier Groulx and Dakota Mermis. This organization is still in salary cap hell with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Matthew Knies making big money, and they’re a dramatically worse team now than they ended the season.
Something has to change in Toronto and it’s time to pull the Band-Aid off and trade a star to build sensibly. The issue is that Toronto isn’t sensible.
Winner: Florida Panthers
Credit where it’s due: The Panthers understand their edge. Florida is in a position right now where they can boast a championship organization and an effective 20% subversion of the salary cap due to a lack of state income tax, and that leads to them making obscene deals nobody else in hockey is capable of.
Sam Bennett is a $10M AAV player anywhere else in the NHL. He re-signed with the Panthers for $8M AAV. Aaron Ekblad is easily an $8M AAV defenseman, and he was retained for $6.1M AAV. Brad Marchand could have easily commanded $6M AAV or higher in this weak market, and he was retained for $5.1M AAV.
The point: There was a hope around hockey that these three free agents could depart and finally break the Panthers stranglehold on the NHL, but that didn’t happen. There’s no doubt Florida gets to effectively dance around the league’s salary cap, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t win big time by keeping these three guys.
Loser: Edmonton Oilers
I hate what the Oilers did in free agency. Essentially what Edmonton had to do was overpay Evan Bouchard ($10.5M AAV) out of desperation to keep Connor McDavid happy, and I absolutely understand wanting to keep a talent like Bouchard. The issue is that it further accentuated the Oilers’ biggest problem.
No team in hockey is more top-heavy than the Oilers. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl account for a mammoth chunk of their cap, and now Bouchard got a pay raise. Making that happen came at the expense of losing critical depth players like John Klingberg and Corey Perry. I’m not sure if Andrew Mangiapane is the piece his team needed, and as a result it feels like they took a step back.
There are just some bad vibes around Edmonton right now. This team is on a trajectory to get worse entering a year where McDavid needs to decide if it’s worth staying, and if he walks the team will be saddled with some big, bloated contracts. Couple that with the fact this team will need years to build depth through the draft and I continually hate the top-heavy approach the Oilers take to team building.
