The NBA playoff picture changes every year. Last season, four teams who missed the playoffs the previous year jumped into the playoff bracket. That list included the Detroit Pistons going from 14 wins to 44 wins and the No. 6 seed in the East, and the Houston Rockets going from 41 to 52 wins to jump to the No. 2 seed in the West.
I spy at least three playoff spots up for grabs in the ‘25-26 season, and potentially more. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers each feel poised to take a gap year in the East after losing their superstar engines to torn Achilles tendons. The Memphis Grizzlies will probably take a step back in the West, too, after trading Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for four first-round picks.
The NBA season always has a few surprises for us, so you can probably bank on another playoff spot or two opening up by the time the postseason rolls around. Until then, here’s three teams we think will crash the playoffs in 2026 who missed the bracket last year.
Victor Wembanyama looked poised to lead the Spurs to a play-in tournament run last season before he was diagnosed with a blood clot in his shoulder that ended his year. The Spurs are putting their best roster yet around Wemby as he enters his third season, and there’s a path to the playoffs if everything comes together. The 7’5 French super freak will be the best defensive player in the league this year, and should be a top-10 offensive player, too. The Spurs will finally have more ball handling around him with a full season of De’Aaron Fox (who played only five games with Wembanyama last year after being acquired from the Sacramento Kings at the trade deadline) and No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper. Adding Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk to the front court should help bolster the rotation a bit, too. I’m still worried that the Spurs don’t have enough shooting, and that the roster still feels like it has too many guards and not enough wings. Nothing comes easy in the West, but the Spurs have a pathway to 45+ wins if Wembanyama stays healthy.
The Hawks were the doorstep of the playoffs last year before blowing two chances in the play-in tournament to make the bracket. This year’s team has a chance to be significantly better. Trae Young is still the primary initiator in Atlanta, and this feels like the strongest roster his front office has ever put around him (yes, that includes the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals team). Hawks optimism starts with the return of Jalen Johnson, who looked like he was on his way to developing into the team’s best player last season before he suffered a torn labrum that ended his year. Johnson is a huge and athletic forward who can grab-and-go in transition with the best of them, and has some serious downhill scoring juice. His shooting will the major swing factor in how high his ceiling can go. The Hawks aren’t just betting on internal improvement: they also added Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard to the rotation this year. Porzingis is rarely healthy, but if that chances, he adds a stretch-five dimension Atlanta has never had in the Young era. Alexander-Walker can play either backcourt spot with provides additional point-of-attack defense next to Young, and more scoring juice than Dyson Daniels has. I wasn’t the biggest fan of 2024 No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, but he should be a serviceable 3-and-D style wing in his second season at minimum. A lot needs to go right for the Hawks to reach their potential, but there’s something closer to 50-win upside here if everything falls into place. Having the Pelicans’ unprotected 2026 first-round in hand just makes this season even better.
Is Joel Embiid done as an elite player? Can he even be counted on to play ~60 games in a season anymore? If both of those questions are a no, the Sixers are not making the playoffs this year. The center depth behind Embiid is poor (please note I’m holding onto my Adem Bona stock) and there’s still nothing resembling a starting power forward on this roster. Philly does have a lot of awesome young guards: Tyrese Maxey is a proven stud, Jared McCain was the best rookie last year before he got hurt, Quentin Grimes can be good in a multitude of roles, and No. 3 overall pick VJ Edgecombe should be playable at minimum as a rookie. It really all comes down to Embiid, and to a lesser extent, Paul George. In a worst case scenario, those might be the two worst contracts in the NBA right now. If the two veteran stars can even return as a B-version of themselves, the Sixers have enough gas to blow past the Raptors and Bulls for a playoff spot.
