2025 NFL playoffs: X-factors for every AFC team in the wild-card round

The AFC wild-card games kickoff three in a row on Saturday and Sunday before the NFC joins the party on Sunday and Monday.

Every week, we discuss one under-the-radar player from every team who made a big difference in the previous week in out “Secret Superstars” column. For the postseason, we are looking ahead, not back. Here we will discuss one player from every team in the wild-card round who could make all the difference in the progression to the divisional frame.

Here are the potential X-Factors for every AFC playoff team:

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Saturday, January 11, 2025

Los Angeles Chargers: WR Ladd McConkey

McConkey, the second-round rookie from Georgia, isn’t exactly a Secret Superstar, but his effect in Jim Harbaugh’s and Greg Roman’s passing game can hardly be overstated for such a young player. McConkey has 82 catches on 110 targets this season for 1,149 yards, and seven touchdowns this season. Regarding this particular matchup against the Texans’ defense, he’ll be even more important in the ways he’s able to slice and dice man coverage.

Because when Houston plays man coverage, they’re quite good at it. They’ve allowed 67 catches on 159 targets in man this season for 1,084 yards, 10 touchdowns, six interceptions, 19 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 70.8 – third-lowest in the NFL.

Where McConkey becomes the X-factor here is how he’s been able to deal with man all season. He is Justin Herbert’s most productive and consistent target against man coverage, with 29 catches on 40 targets for 400 yards, 239 air yards, 161 yards after the catch, and two touchdowns. McConkey is also the only Chargers receiver with a touchdown catch against man coverage this season, so one would expect Herbert to feed the rookie early and often.

Houston Texans: LG Tytus Howard

C.J. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons we’ve seen from a quarterback in recent years, so his relative sophomore slump in 2024 (he plummeted from seventh to 34th in Passing DYAR – yikes) has been surprising. Stroud has some of the blame there, but there’s also the matter of receiver injuries, a passing game that hasn’t always been schematically amazing, and a severely leaky offensive line to deal with.

The Texans have been switching the deck chairs on that last particular Titanic of late, and one move that has gone very well is the decision prior to Week 15 to move right tackle Tytus Howard to left guard. The guard positions have been the Texans line’s Achilles’ heel all season long, but in his four games at left guard this season, Howard has allowed one sack, one quarterback hit, and three quarterback pressures. Which makes him look like a Hall of Famer in comparison with Houston’s other guards.

“Yeah, he’s been able to do a great job in there holding his own,” Stroud said of Howard this week. “Definitely just being just a comfort blanket. I know he’s going to do his job every time and just have that interior locked down, or that interior structure, it’s kind of like a wall. So, it’s definitely helpful having him in there. I’m just happy that he’s happy doing it, and I’m proud of him that he is that type of guy for the team – to go in there even though his natural position is tackle. But to go in there and have success has been really awesome to watch.”

Perhaps the most impressive example of Howard’s “comfort blanketing” came in Week 17 against the Baltimore Ravens. Stroud got off a 30-yard pass to receiver Nico Collins, which would not have been possible without Howard doing his best to pick up both sides of the stunt by defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, and edge-rusher Odafe Oweh.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 11, 2025

Pittsburgh Steelers: RB Jaylen Warren

We could go through all kinds of advanced metrics to describe just how rancid the Steelers’ offense has been over the last month, but we’ll keep it simple – from Week 15 through the end of the regular season, Pittsburgh ranked 29th in the NFL in points per game (14.3), and 31st in yards per play (4.5). This is Not A Good Thing against a Ravens defense that has seen a massive improvement in the second half of the season; more on a primary reason for that in a second.

It’s become quite clear that the Steelers’ two primary weapons in the passing game – quarterback Russell Wilson and receiver George Pickens – cannot be counted on to execute whatever the heck offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is dialing up at any point in time. Which makes it about the run game if the Steelers are to look any better against the Ravens than they did in a 34-17 Week 16 loss in Baltimore.

If Pittsburgh is to lead with the run, they should do something unusual – give in to just about every Steelers fan and make Jaylen Warren their lead back instead of Najee Harris. Yes, Harris was the team’s first-round pick in 2021, and Warren is a third-year undrafted free agent, but the metrics and the tape point in one direction. Warren has averaged 3.21 yards after contact per carry to Harris’ 2.90. Warren has forced 31 missed tackles to Harris’ 63… with less than half the carries (263 to 120). And against the Ravens in that Week 16 loss, it was Warren who led the way as a runner and as a receiver – he had 12 carries for 48 yards, and five catches on five targets for 44 yards.

The tape tells you that Warren is the more dynamic and elusive player, as well. Not that the Steelers should keep Harris off the field entirely – he’s not a bust or anything – but if they’re to pull off what looks to be a major upset, it’s time to get the ball in the hands of the best man at the position.

Baltimore Ravens: Safety Ar’Darius Washington

We all know that the Baltimore Ravens have enjoyed a remarkable defensive turnaround in the second half of the 2024 season. And we know that the team’s decision to move Kyle Hamilton from all-around defensive back standout to full-time free safety was a major component of the turnaround. That happened before Week 11, and since then, the Ravens have gone from allowing a Passing EPA per Play of +0.08 (the NFL’s fourth-worst) to -0.25 (by far the NFL’s best – the Denver Broncos rank second in that time at -0.08).

Here’s the thing, though – it wasn’t just the Hamilton move that turned things around. The Ravens had already shored up their odd deep safety group with the insertion of Ar’Darius Washington, and they really did that in Week 8. Washington doesn’t look anything like a deep safety at 5-foot-8 and 177 pounds, but the fourth-year undrafted free agent has been every bit the man when covering deep, and when coming down in robber coverage to fool opposing quarterbacks.

Add in the fact that Washington and Hamilton are great at communicating and flipping coverage pre- to post-snap, and you begin to understand why Washington has been so important. Washington will also play some box and slot snaps, but in the end, you really want him on that wall as a deep defender. If this defensive upswing continues, it may be a primary reason the Ravens nab their third Lombardi Trophy.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 12, 2025

Denver Broncos: EDGE Nik Bonitto

This season, the Broncos have blitzed at the NFL’s seventh-highest rate (29.5% of their snaps), but their pressure rate of 27.7% is the league’s second-best behind the Dallas Cowboys’ 30.1%. This tells you that Denver’s ability to bother quarterbacks goes beyond whatever defensive coordinator Vance Joseph might throw at said quarterbacks, though Joseph’s input should not be diminished. It really means that Denver has a lot of hosses in their pass rush room. Interior defensive lineman Zach Allen has played at an All-Pro level all season, and the second man who should receive more recognition is Nik Bonitto,

The third-year man from Oklahoma did just about everything you can ask of an edge defender, with 15 sacks, 57 total pressures, 26 stops, and an opponent passer rating allowed of 25.0, as he gave up three catches on six targets, and returned another one of those targets for a pick-six against the Cleveland Browns. Add in the fumble return touchdown he had against the Indianapolis Colts, and Bonitto became one of seven defenders in pro football history to amass at least 11.5 sacks and two defensive touchdowns in the same season.

Yes, Josh Allen is a major challenge for any defense, but Allen will also have his hands full with a cadre of pass rushers who can come at you in all kinds of ways.

Buffalo Bills: CB Christian Benford

On the other side of the ball in this game, there’s the small matter of Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix becoming one of the NFL’s most frequent and effective deep passers. The same Auburn and Oregon prospect many thought had a “weak arm” coming out of college has thrown the second-most passes of 20 or more air yards (73, tied with Josh Allen and behind only Caleb Williams), completing 31 of those deep throws for 932 yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.3 – fourth-best in the league among quarterbacks taking at least 20% of their teams’ snaps..

Nix has been less consistent when throwing passes of 10-19 air yards; that’s where he’s completed 30 of 46 passes for 456 yards, seven touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 97.7, which ranks 21st.

So, it will be up to the Bills’ secondary to limit Nix’s downfield explosiveness, and make the most of those times when the middle of the passing chart gets a bit overwhelming. Here, we have to begin with cornerback Christian Benford, the third-year sixth-round pick out of Villanova who has filled his resume to become the team’s best coverage man. This season, Benford has allowed 31 catches on 51 targets for 279 yards, 112 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, two interceptions, seven pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 72.3. Moreover, Benford’s ability to take any type of receiver intermediate to deep makes him the perfect opponent for Nix’s own abilities.