The first Saturday in May is one of the great events on the sports calendar, and this year finds a super horse that is already garnering Triple Crown buzz as 20 of the best thoroughbreds in the world head to Louisville for the most famous race in all of American sports.
The Kentucky Derby is open to all three-year-old horses, though no fillies are running this year. Participants are going ten furlongs (or 1 1/4 mile), and $5 million is added to the prize pool for the Grade 1 stakes race — the largest pool in America outside the Breeders Cup Classic.
Kentucky Derby post positions and morning line odds
2025 Kentucky Derby
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Morning Line Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Morning Line Odds |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 20-1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Flavien Prat | 30-1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | Brad Cox | Luan Machado | 30-1 |
| 4 | American Promise | D. Wayne Lukas | Nik Juarez | 30-1 |
| 5 | Admire Daytona | Yukihiro Kato | Christophe Lemaire | 30-1 |
| 6 | Luxor Café | Noriyuki Hori | Joao Moreira | 15-1 |
| 7 | Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 3-1 |
| 8 | Burnham Square | Ian Wilkes | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 12-1 |
| 9 | Grande | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 20-1 |
| 10 | Flying Mohawk | Whit Beckman | Joe Ramos | 30-1 |
| 11 | East Avenue | Brendan Walsh | Manny Franco | 20-1 |
| 12 | Publisher | Steve Asmussen | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 20-1 |
| 13 | Tiztastic | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 20-1 |
| 14 | Render Judgment | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 30-1 |
| 15 | Coal Battle | Lonnie Briley | Juan Vargas | 30-1 |
| 16 | Sandman | Mark Casse | Jose Ortiz | 6-1 |
| 17 | Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 5-1 |
| 18 | Chunk of Gold | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry | 30-1 |
| 19 | Owen Almighty | Brian Lynch | Javier Castellano | 30-1 |
| 20 | Baeza | John Shirreffs | Flavien Prat | 12-1 |
* Rodriguez was originally set as the No. 4 horse, but was scratched on Thursday. Baeza moved to the No. 20 position as the alternate, and all horses now in gates 5-19 in the field moved one spot closer to the rail.
Kentucky Derby predictions
Despite what a college guidance counselor might tell you, Journalism is alive and well and the favorite to wear the blanket of Roses as the sun sets on Saturday afternoon. Trainer Michael McCarthy has put the son of Curlin and Mopotism on the track five times, the first in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita where he crawled to a third. Since then he’s won all four races, including three stakes wins at the Grade 2 Los Al Futurity and San Felipe Stakes, and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby a month ago.
He paid just $4.00 for his victory over the five-horse field at Santa Anita, but don’t let the one-length win fool you: He took the worst trip imaginable, from a start on the rail to the far outside on the final turn, and still had plenty in the tank at the wire. The victory at the San Felipe was the same, as jockey Umbert Rispoli did just enough to get over the line by 1 3⁄4 over the field, but didn’t need the afterburners apparently on offer. If Rispoli can find a clear line from the eight-hole, there should be plenty of speed available when down the stretch they come.
Sovereignty is the No. 17 horse, and brings as much closing speed as anyone in the field. Junior Alvarado’s mount will want a glacial pace, as he’s got as much closing speed as anyone. In his last three stakes races he was no better than fifth at the 3⁄4 pole, but finished with two wins and a second at the Florida Derby that fell short by just over a length.
There have only been five winners of the 132 horses that have started in gate No. 17 or higher at Churchill Downs, so staying out of the way early and finding a good trip will be key for the Bill Mott trainee.
We know one thing about Bob Baffert’s only remaining entry following his suspension from Churchill Downs, and that is he won’t be behind at the first turn. Citizen Bull is going for the lead from the rail, and will try to just run away and hang on. In three of his last four races Bull was first to the quarter pole and the finish line, including a 107 speed figure at the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. But the 2024 Breeders Cup Juvenile winner’s most recent outing was the Santa Anita Derby, where he failed to ever lead and finished 10 lengths behind Journalism in fourth.
There were several candidates for a scratch, and with Rodriguez out the beneficiary is John Shirreffs Baeza, who was the first alternate after finishing second at the Santa Anita Derby. It took Baeza three outings to break his maiden, but his fourth career start was a second place at the Santa Anita Derby. A 107 speed figure in that race saw him finish just a head behind Journalism at the wire.
For all the races at Churchill Downs this weekend, FanDuel Racing is offering a fantastic rebate of a deal on horse racing betting, as new customers can place their first bet up to $500 on any race at any track. And if your first bet doesn’t win, you’ll get it back in Racing Bonus dollars for future wagers for future horse races that expire after seven days.
How to watch the Kentucky Derby
Post time for The Kentucky Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET, with the TV broadcast on NBC starting at 2:30 p.m. Peacock, NBCSports.com, and the NBC Sports app will all have streaming coverage of all Derby Day races from Churchill Downs.
