We’re five weeks into the NFL season and so much has changed. Teams we thought were absolute locks to challenge for a Super Bowl have been wracked by injury and bad performance, while others nobody expected to be good have stepped up.
Today we’re diving into the teams who have made statements to start the season and we think have a real shot of making it all the way to the Super Bowl this year. It’s a pretty wild list, so buckle up.
This is really starting to feel like the year the Bills can put it all together. Sure, you can point to their surprising loss to the Patriots on Monday Night Football, but divisional games can always be weird and unpredictable.
When we get down to brass tacks the Bills are the only team from the AFC elite who legitimately look as good as we thought they’d be during the season. The slight worry is that as we look at their schedule they have played a lot of bad football teams that have enabled them to look good. The Ravens defense is a mess, and the less we say about the Saints, Jets, and Dolphins the better.
That said, the Bills have two huge things going for them: They haven’t been bitten significantly by the injury bug, and Josh Allen still exists. As long as Allen is healthy this team will always have a shot to compete, and unlike past years it’s looking more and more like they won’t really need to worry about the Chiefs or Ravens this season in a significant way.
There is no reason the Chargers shouldn’t be able to compete for a Super Bowl — outside of the huge caveat that their offensive line is having big time issues with the injury to Rashawn Slater, and in many ways they’re still coping with that.
Still, it’s tough to write off this team. Jim Harbaugh has everyone buying into his brand of football, Justin Herbert is playing ludicrously well, and the defense is holding up enough to keep them in every game. It the Chargers can just find a way of hitting another gear on offense then they’ll be a playoff team to be extremely worried about in the AFC.
This can happen. It’s just about how this team pivots in the next few weeks.
The adage “defense wins championships” applies here. Denver made a big time statement in beating Philadelphia, and that showed they have what it takes to be considered among the best in the NFL this season.
What the Broncos lack in household names they make up by having players tailor made to fit Sean Payton’s system, and this team is getting the job done. Bo Nix is far from an elite quarterback, but he’s such a good fit for Payton that they’re making this work really well. This team will keep winning so long as the Broncos defense ensure the game never reaches a point where Nix has to throw his way back into a game.
That’s precisely what’s happening, with Denver ranking 2nd in the NFL in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, 1st in rushing touchdowns allowed, and only allowing 16.8 points per game. It’s all coming together, and this team is very dangerous.
We’ve done this dance before. Counting the Chiefs out at any point is just stupid, because this team always finds a way through it all. Sure, they might not look impressive right now at 2-3, but there’s a lot of season to go.
There are obvious issues here the team needs to button up. Nobody has stepped up to become a reliable weapon for Patrick Mahomes, but he’s also forcing the ball more than he normally does, desperately trying to make plays happen where they don’t exist. There’s also major questions about the discipline, with the Chiefs essentially beating themselves with dumb penalties and miscues against the Jaguars in Week 5.
When the dust settles the Chiefs will find a way. It’s just what they do.
Is it time to start believing in the Jaguars?
Jacksonville began the year 2-1, with wins over the Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans and a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, in a game started by Joe Burrow and finished by Jake Browning.
Yes, the same Cincinnati Bengals that just traded for Joe Flacco.
That was not an impressive start to the season, but wins the past two weeks over the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs have certainly changed the narrative. In particular, a comeback win over a Chiefs team desperately searching for their own statement win is worthy of praise.
Jacksonville looks to have bought into Liam Coen, the defense is one of the best in the league according to Expected Points Added per Play, and if Monday’s win is any indication Trevor Lawrence is finding ways to use his legs more to help this offense. In a wide-open AFC, the Jaguars have a shot at making a deep run.
Speaking of time to believe…
Each week Ben Baldwin, the mind behind RBSDM.com, produces a host of graphics using NFL data. One of those is the “Team Tiers” graphic, which looks at both EPA/Play on offense and defense to sort teams into tiers.
Leading the way after five weeks? Your Indianapolis Colts:
Yes, part of this might be a function of who the Colts have played. After all, three of their four wins have come against the Dolphins, the Raiders, and the Titans, three teams with a combined 3-12 record.
But a win over the Broncos, a narrow loss to the Rams, and these numbers, show that the Colts are for real.
It’s the Eagles, do we really need to say much more here? While it’s certainly true that Philly doesn’t look nearly as dominant as they did a year ago, particularly on offense — the fact is that nobody looks particularly great this season to the point where we can call them a favorite definitively.
Way too much is being made of Philly losing to Denver, which was a surprise — but the Broncos are just a very solid team. There really hasn’t been a single “gimme” on this team’s schedule so far, and they’re still 4-1. The margins may be smaller in 2025 than they were a year ago, but this remains one of the premiere teams in the NFL and someone who will be a factor in the playoffs.
Entering the season there were a lot of questions about whether the Lions would still be elite. That happens when you lose both coordinators to head coaching jobs and need to do some retooling in the coaching staff. Five weeks in those questions have evaporated, and Detroit is just as good as ever.
This is a team that has so many strengths it’s difficult to find an effective way to challenge them. The run game is there, Jared Goff still plays incredible football without Ben Johnson as his OC, and on defense the Lions aren’t quite top-tier, but certainly good enough to back up their powerful offense.
It takes a lot of effort to get past Detroit. Now they’ve found their footing the game to circle will be their next matchup with the Packers on November 27.
The Packers looked like they might be the best team in the entire NFL, then they played down to their opponents by losing to the Browns and tying with the Cowboys in back-to-back weeks. It’s still safe to say that Green Bay is still very, very good — and hopefully the bye week allowed a bit of a reset where they can show their potential once more.
Jordan Love is an excellent quarterback who needs to contribute a few more explosive plays to truly lock him in among the NFL’s elite tier of quarterbacks. That said, he’s exceptionally good at taking care of the football — which is important now this team seems focused heavily on bullying teams on defense and keeping games close.
When you have a quarterback like Love, a running back like Josh Jacobs, and Micah Parsons in the pass rush then you’re going to be in the mix. It’s that simple.
The 49ers are such a weird team, but credit where it’s due: As injured and beat up as they’ve been San Francisco hasn’t caved at all, and boast a 4-1 record against the odds.
One of the best coached teams in the NFL, it makes you wonder how good the Niners can be when everyone is back and healthy? Brock Purdy played some iffy football before being hurt, but he should be back to form when he recovers from turf toe in a few more weeks.
It’s been far too easy to write off the 49ers this season, but they refuse to be ignored and that level of competitiveness is what every championship team needs.
Is this the year they break through? It very well could be. The Bucs essentially keep running back the same formula on offense, but it’s going to work until someone stops it. Tampa has big, physical receivers that simply out-muscle players for the ball, and have both separation and catch radius skills that mitigate Baker Mayfield’s sometimes questionable accuracy.
Defensively is where the Bucs are struggling, as they allow a lot of points and are really mediocre against the pass. The flipside is that Baker Mayfield just has that edge required to step up and make plays when his team needs them, and never quits on the game.
While far from being a favorite in the NFC, don’t count out Tampa Bay.
Vikings fans reading this piece are ready with a cautionary tale.
Do not trust Sam Darnold.
A year ago, the Vikings looked like one of the best teams in the NFC, led by the veteran journeyman. But a debacle in Week 18 relegated Minnesota to one of the Wild Card spots (instead of potentially the No. 1 seed in the conference) and the Vikings lost to the Rams on the road the following week.
Now, Darnold is in Seattle and the Seahawks are 3-2, with their two losses coming on a combined seven points to San Francisco and Tampa Bay. Their offense is among the league’s best in EPA/Play, even with Darnold in the fold. There are some issues to sort out on the defensive side of the ball if this is going to truly be a Super Bowl contender, but that is what Mike Macdonald was brought to Seattle to do.
The biggest hurdle here is the schedule. Seattle’s remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .559, one of the toughest slates left in the league.
For now, the Commanders remain on this list.
Some might find it hard to make heads or tails out of Washington. Are they the team that went on the road this past weekend and cruised to a 27-10 win over the Chargers? Or the team that looked rather pedestrian in losses to the Packers and Falcons, and whose only other wins are over the Russell Wilson-led Giants and the Raiders?
But those looking for optimism will point to the return of Jayden Daniels in last week’s win, the impending return of Terry McLaurin, and one of the league’s most efficient offenses as a reason to believe:
Others will point at a difficult schedule (Washington has two games against the Eagles, two games against the Cowboys, and games against Seattle, Detroit, and Denver remaining) and declare that the wins are going to be tougher to come by down the stretch.
But if the Commanders come out of this schedule on the other side with a playoff berth, they’ll have proven their worth.
The concern in Los Angeles heading into the season was the status of Matthew Stafford’s back.
Through five games, that back seems just fine.
The Rams are 3-2, and there might be some frustration in Los Angeles that the record is not better. An overtime loss to the 49ers, coupled with a loss to the Eagles where the Rams allowed a pair of blocked field goals, are the two blemishes. But with Stafford playing as well as he is right now (the veteran quarterback is fifth in the NFL with an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 8.22) and an efficient defense (Los Angeles is sixth in the NFL in defensive EPA/Pass) the Rams are in the mix.
