November 22, 2025
Sticking to a budget and researching prices, discounts and sales on items you want to buy can help lower holiday spending.
In an unprecedented way, Americans are anticipated to spend over $1 trillion during the quickly approaching holiday shopping season.
The colossal forecast for November and December 2025 from the National Retail Federation comes as the trade group predicts U.S. consumers will make this the costliest Christmas ever. The bonanza is expected to occur despite turbulence, such as an uncertain economy, unemployment, and tariffs which are likely to boost the price of many gifts people plan to buy.
Overspending can surface as shoppers fall prey to bad moves like impulse buying for friends and family. And lavishness can fuel other types of irresistible spending that may lead to excessive generosity.
Consumers plan to spend nearly $891 on average this year on holiday gifts, food, and other items. Those findings are from NRF’s latest holiday survey, done by Prosper Insights & Analytics, not tied to the holiday sales prediction. The new average is supposedly the second largest in the survey’s 23-year history.
Another report from the BMO Real Financial Progress Index predicts even more spending, including retail outlay, travel, and entertainment. It surmises Americans will spend an average of nearly $2,800 this season, up over $1,000 from 2024. As such, the analysis states 70% of consumers are setting firmer budgets for the holiday season, and over 65% report they are changing their shopping method because of tariffs.
“The holidays this year come on the heels of a period defined by inflation and price volatility for everyday items, leaving many consumers confused and stressed as they plan for year-end festivities,” stated Paul Dilda, head of U.S. consumer strategy at BMO. “Against this backdrop, shoppers are changing their behaviors – spending more in some areas, cutting back in others, and trying to build budgets that they can stick to over the holidays.”
Simultaneously, this holiday season is coming with cautious optimism. According to the 2025 Economic Impact Survey from Nationwide, some 55% of Americans are secure with their financial situation. Yet 42% aim to spend less this holiday season than last year. 38% will purchase gifts, and 20% say they won’t buy any presents.
The bright side is that there are many ways to help cut holiday splurging and assist with carrying less of that debt, or potentially none, into 2026. Based on BLACK ENTERPRISE research, the steps could include:
- Set up a budget and adhere to it. Be specific on how much you will spend on each item, whether it’s gifts, food, or other categories. Regularly check if you are staying on track.
- Make a thorough shopping list containing who you’re buying for, a spending estimate, and details to prevent excess spending.
- Shop early for discounts and sales, before the stampede, to help stop last-minute spending and possibly higher prices.
- Use cash or debit cards, as opposed to credit cards for purchases. Data shows people using credit cards often overspend. Further, paying with money helps you tangibly see what you’re spending and stay within your budget.
- Avoid store credit cards that offer one-time discounts if you open one. The cards often levy high interest rates and other costly fees. They can create impulse buying by nudging you to buy more gifts than initially planned.
- Be diligent about not making unplanned purchases or not using part of the money you have set aside for spending.
- Do research on discounts and sales before you shop. Check online to see how much the item you want to buy is at retail stores. Check Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales and look for digital or paper coupons from retailers.
- Don’t be afraid to use a holiday gift exchange. This can be done with family or friends and cut spending. Set a budget for the gift swap so the financial expectations are equal for all.
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Homemade gifts can be a nifty way to save money. They might not work for everyone, but can be memorable. For example, photos for grandparents or cookies for others close to you could be good options.
- Shop at unorthodox places like yard sales, thrift stores, resale sites, and social media to search for less pricy gifts. You might spot vintage gifts that are more special than new ones.
- Use unspent gift cards, vouchers, or store credits that can still work to buy presents. It could be a savvy way to obtain a gift for basically free.
- Do your homework online to explore websites like Credit.com offering practical tips on how to cut holiday spending.
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